This post reports on a study showing lawyers are overconfident in predicting the outcome of their cases. I believe the recent Atul Gawande article in the New Yorker said that doctors are overly optimistic in predicting how long their patients will live. IT professionals routinely promise to complete projects faster and cheaper than they can (see this on the FBI's Sentinel program). Military professionals often are overly optimistic in predicting the outcome of military operations. Politicians over promise the results of their votes. Economists, except for Tyler Cowen, are overly sure of the outcome of their proposed policies.
Think there's a pattern here?
[Updated: A day late and a dollar short, Professor Robin Hanson comes to the same conclusion.]
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