MFP and CFAP Political Effects

The bottom line of a study trying to assess whether the MFP and CFAP payments resulted in more votes for Trump in 2020:

We find the MFP and CFAP programs generated 677,512 votes for Republican candidate Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election with an estimated cost-per-vote-gained of $66,124

I say it's the bottom line, but the next sentence says the added votes didn't swing any states; rural voters were already pro-Trump. 

Nondelegation Doctrine

 Volkh Conspiracy has a guest poster writing on the "nondelegation doctrine", the idea that Congress should grant power to the executive only with strict guidelines.

For anyone interested but too lazy to go to the Reason magaizine, here's my comment:

1. “Major policy decisions”? Do we know what that means? There’s a standard of economic impact of $100 million for regulations–but that’s been unchanged since it was first adopted in the 1970s in relation to inflation concerns, not policy.

   Arguable the USDA/Trump decision to spend billions from the Commodity Credit Corporation was a major policy decision. But it wasn’t particularly controversial, because it was too esoteric and there were no significant opposing voices to make a fuss. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/01/21/trump-tariff-aid-to-farmers-cost-more-than-us-nuclear-forces/?sh=4fe7a4966c50

   I suspect the operational definition is an issue about which there’s a big fight between the parties and/or interest groups. I think the reality is such issues don’t get resolved in legislation, just kicked down the road to the faceless bureaucrats who can be blamed if they screw up and/or offend people.

   Reply 

More USDA Programs

Secretary Vilsack announced new programs and more money for existing ones. 

I didn't see any more money for FSA administration but I just skimmed.  

Multiple Communication Channels--CFAP

 Back in the day I remember catching flak from state specialists when the various agricultural media outlets--magazines and radio--came out with program announcements and details before our procedures from DC had hit them. 

I suspect the problem has become even more complex.  An example:

My twitter feed is announcing a freeze of CFAP:

Biden just froze CFAP aid to farmers program. https://t.co/dOx5Lf6B62

— NYFarmer (@NYFarmer) January 28, 2021

The farmers.gov site has the notice:  

I'm sure the FSA directives system will take a while to catch up. 

A Third CFAP?

 Joe Glauber, former chief economist for USDA, tweets here:

The US farm sector just reported its 4th highest net farm income since 1970 (adjusting for inflation). So why more aid when there are millions out of work? 👇👇👇 https://t.co/HZuW99hyFy

— JoeGlauber--IFPRI (@JoeGlauber1) December 22, 2020

responding to this:

Congress should not give #farmers, who already have numerous safety net programs, more aid. @JoeGlauber1, @dwschanz, and Vince Smith argue congress should aid Americans facing #hunger instead in @thehill. #COVID19 https://t.co/1Ti3ogwWlp

— Philip H🌐xie (@phoxie58) December 22, 2020

Which in turn links to this AEI post.

Over at the Facebook group for FSA employees there was surprise and some consternation at the prospect of doing another round of payments. 

NASCOE has a summary here.

Farm Program Payments

From  here, a nice graph of US farm payments, including MFP and CFAP.

 

CFAP II Coming, and Here

 From Progressive Farmer, a report from Trump's rally saying that CFAP II will be announced next week at $13 billion.

Just went to Facebook FSA employees group and found this was announced.  Don't know why the amount went up $1 billion in a day.

More "Crops" Added to CFAP

 USDA announced more "crops" for CFAP.  I put crops in quotes because some of them I"ve never heard of.  Back in the disaster days ASCS had to deal with a lot of new crops, because the program covered vegetables and nursery.  Now FSA has:

• yautia/malanga (a type of taro root)
• cherimoya ("custard apple") praised by Mark Twain as the most delicious fruit.
•  carambola ("star fruit")
• mamey sapote ("red mamey")

MFP and CFAP and ?

Politico has a piece on Trump's payment programs for farmers, which have set new records, arguing it will be difficult to cut back.

It's not Trump's fault, entirely. Yes, he bears responsibility for the trade war with China, which then justified $23 billion in MFP payments, and seems not to have accomplished much. But the payments under CFAP to cushion the blows of the pandemic are as big, or will be bigger.  And farm state Democrats are as eager as Republicans to fund the payments. 

I'm waiting for the WTO evaluation of the programs, but Trump is likely to pull us out of that as well.

Loren Becker Is Happy

As I've said, I've been lurking in the FSA Facebook group, watching the exchanges of hints, encouragements, etc. as the field offices struggle through CFAP (along with their regular work, all working from home or with restricted access to the offices].

One facet of the implementation effort is the use of Excel worksheets.  Back in the day, Loren Becker worked in KCMO. He became very proficient in Lotus 1-2-3, the dominant spreadsheet software of the day, and strongly urged us to use Lotus to develop test data, modeling what the results of System/36 software programs should be.  FSA isn't doing exactly that, but Loren would be happy, maybe is happy but I don't know, to see the extensive use of spreadsheets.

Watching the Messy Process of Implementation in the Field

I'm enjoying watching the FSA field people administering the CFAP by logging into the FSA Facebook Group. 

I have to remember I'm lurking, and no longer have the knowledge nor authority to comment on anything.  Much of the discussions seem familiar from times gone by but what's more visible (probably not new but it wasn't visible before) is the networking among the program technicians as they're officially called today.  I wonder how many of the State and DC specialists are auditing this group?

NASCOE has had a system of "program" recommendations where they pass problems and suggestions from the field on to the DC specialists for possible resolution. It seems to take a while to make the circuit.  Some of the problems raised in the Facebook group are resolvable there--just a lateral flow of knowledge and tips.  Some of the problems may be tackled by people with special knowledge, particularly of the software. Since the group has maybe 1,000 members, and the field offices probably have 7K+ employees plus temps I wonder whether the lateral flow of info is reaching everyone it should. 

Doubled Payments in CFAP?

I shouldn't do this, because I'm approaching senility and know little about the subject, but I won't let that stop me asking this question: is it possible that some producers and commodities will receive compensation for the same loss under both CFAP and the existing insurance and FSA programs?

CFAP--A Tip of the Hat

I remember the pains of trying to implement new legislation on a rush basis.  I could tell, and have told, stories about the experience. 

One thing I never experienced was trying to implement new legislation while working from home during a pandemic.  A tip of my hat to those working in DC and the field who are trying to navigate that morass.  (Post inspired by Brent Orr's picture of the training room in the South Building from which they did online training of the field on CFAP.)

No CFAP for Wool/Mohair or Oysters?

I follow the Foothill Agrarians blog--he raises sheep.  Here's his report on the wool/mohair market.

I also follow Tamar Haspel on twitter--she writes on food for the Post and she and her husband have an oyster farm.  Oysters are mostly sold through restaurants so it's hit hard.

Apparently as of now there's no help in CFAP for either farmer.

CFAP Parameters

From Sentator Hoeven's website:

"Direct Assistance for Farmers and Ranchers 

USDA will provide $16 billion in direct payments to farmers and ranchers including:

• $9.6 billion for the livestock industry
• $5.1 billion for cattle
• $2.9 billion for dairy
• $1.6 billion for hogs
• $3.9 billion for row crop producers
• $2.1 billion for specialty crops producers
• $500 million for others crops

Producers will receive a single payment determined using two calculations:

• Price losses that occurred January 1-April 15, 2020. Producers will be compensated for 85% of price loss during that period.
• Second part of the payment will be expected losses from April 15 through the next two quarters, and will cover 30% of expected losses.

The payment limit is $125,000 per commodity with an overall limit of $250,000 per individual or entity. Qualified commodities must have experienced a 5% price decrease between January and April. 

USDA is expediting the rule making process for the direct payment program and expects to begin sign-up for the new program in early May and to get payments out to producers by the end of May or early June. "

Sounds as if this part of the program will be FSA's hot potato.

19 Billion USDA Program for Pandemic Aid

Here's the press release on the USDA  program(s) announced yesterday:  Highlights:

• "$16 billion in direct support based on actual losses for agricultural producers where prices and market supply chains have been impacted and will assist producers with additional adjustment and marketing costs resulting from lost demand and short-term oversupply for the 2020 marketing year caused by COVID-19."
• $3 billion in direct purchases of meat, milk and produce to be donated to NGO's.
• Using available Section 32 funds ($870+ million) also for direct purchases.
• Administrative support (likely for USDA agencies plus those involved in the distribution)

The first bullet is going to be tough to administer--if you dumped milk there's no evidence now, so it will likely rely on producer certifications for much of the evidence.  Of course all farmers are honest, except for a few bad apples. 

It's the "Coronavirus Food Assistance Program" or CFAP.