Some Sympathy for Gen. Perna

 General Perna is the chief operating officer for Warp Speed, which is now taking some flak for the seemingly slow progress of vaccinating for covid-19.

I never had to deal with his problem, but I have been involved in rolling out programs affecting thousands of counties and a million or so people on a crash basis. The difference between his problems and mine were great:

• the visibility to modern media.  ASCS/FSA programs were visible to local newspapers, but weren't followed nationally or internationally.
• an organizational structure which reached to the end user, the farmer, and one which had long experience in crash programs, dating back to 1933 when it was first set up.
• a program which usually was similar to previous programs--I can't judge how closely the covid-19 program matches the influenza program but it seems quite different.

Just from my back seat position of almost total ignorance, there's some things which didn't happen which should have:

• a tick-tock time schedule. Perna's already apologized for screwing this up. My impression is that there weren't sit-down meetings thrashing through every minute step, which could then be documented in a schedule to establish a base of understanding.
• implementation training. Because a vaccine is just a "jab" in the arm which everyone knows how to give, and because the implementers of the Warp Speed hadn't done this before, it was easy to assume (I assume) that no training was necessary. The reality is that training sessions get everyone on the same page, allow for the identification of areas where silos create problems, and permit exchange of ideas.
• as a former directives person, I suspect whatever directives were issued weren't really in a system.  Part of the problem seems to be lack of delineated authority, but it's also the human tendency to resist systems--to believe that a memo (or these days an email, etc.) handles the immediate problem, without realizing the proliferation of unsystematic directions can worsen problems.

I suspect, given the overall directive of relying on state and local governments to distribute and vaccinate, leaders assumed that those governments had systems in place.  Ass u me.  

I want see to the after-action reports and analyses of the effort to see how wrong this post is.

I also want to restate my sympathy for Perna (unusual for me to feel for a general): doing something new under scrutiny and a time line is a formula for bad public relations.

On Signaling Theory

 Google "signaling theory" and you get links for its use in economics and sociology with this brief explanation:

Signaling theory is useful for describing behavior when two parties (individuals or organizations) have access to different information. Typically, one party, the sender, must choose whether and how to communicate (or signal) that information, and the other party, the receiver, must choose how to interpret the signal.

I see it used fairly often on the Marginal Revolution blog, which raised my curiosity and triggered a line of thought.  One of its uses relates to higher education; the idea being that education is important for the signal it gives to potential employers and others, not so much for the actual learning which may or may not have happened, but for the fact the person got into a college and got through the college, something of a rite of passage.

Some of the people with whom I worked in ASCS/FSA hadn't gone to college, and I've often thought about what differentiated them from the people who did have college.  I don't think it was intelligence so much as self-confidence.  By graduating from college a person learns about herself, signals to herself that she can surmount some obstacles of a certain difficulty.  That signaling is in addition to the signals sent to others.  I suspect it can enable a feedback cycle.  My co-workers who hadn't gone to college hadn't learned that about themselves,  and didn't get the feedback from others.  

Similar psychology works in other fields--my being drafted and spending 1 year, 11 months and 11 days in the USArmy showed me I could do things I hadn't been confident of before.  

I'd encapsulate this as developing a sense of "mastery" in a field, which perhaps is the reverse side of the coin of "impostor syndrome". 

Why Was I Wrong on Trump's Power Over Agencies?

After Trump had been elected president, I remember pontificating to a cousin and his family about the way the deep state would limit Trump's impact, except I was talking in terms of the "iron triangle".   That was conventional wisdom back in the 1960's--the idea being that a combination of the bureaucrats in an agency, the members of Congress on the committees overseeing the agency, and the interest groups lobbying the members and the agency formed a powerful "iron triangle".

With that understanding I've been surprised by the Trump administration's ability to overturn a lot of regulations in a number of different agencies.  So what happened?

A number of things have changed over the last 60 years:

• There's a lot more regulation and regulatory agencies, for one thing, and agencies which existed in the 1960's have been given more regulatory responsibilities.  EPA and OSHA are just two of the new agencies, and FSA/NRCS are an example of the added regulatory authority. I think there's a lot more generalized hostility to regulation now than there used to be, partly because of this expansion.  
• In the 1960's the discussion was more about the ICC or CAB, two agencies which were eliminated in the Carter/Reagan deregulation effort.  In those cases there had been "regulatory capture"; the agencies served the interests of the regulated, less the general public.
• In the 1960's there was a general faith in government, which carried over to endorse the validity of agency regulation. That was one aspect of LBJ's Great Society.  But while the faith was sufficient to create the agencies, it didn't result in forming interest groups which could effectively power the agencies as envisaged in the "iron triangle" theory.
• In the 1960's committee chairmen were powerful, Congressional leadership not so much.  That meant the chairmen could get their way reasonably often, despite the opposition of the President.  With the Gingrich revolution the chairs have diminished power.

Merry Christmas

 I wish everyone a Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays, as they may prefer. 

The Importance of Local Government

 Somewhere in this blog I've mentioned the differences in local government between New York and Virginia.  In New York, outside the cities, the counties are divided into towns for purposes of local road maintenance, tax collection, etc. and into central school districts for schools.  My father was on the Chenango Forks Central School board for a number of years. (You can find a sample of what goes on in a town government in this recent supervisor's email.) 

In Virginia the county handles the schools and other local functions, In NY Broome County has 16 towns, 7 villages, and one city--Binghamton. 

I was struck in reading the Gordon-Reed/Onof book on Thomas Jefferson by a discussion of his letter on local government. In 1816 he was pushing to subdivide Virginia counties into smaller units, specifically in this instance "wards" which would handle local public schools (which Virginia didn't have).  There's a reference to using the areas which were the basis for the militia (I'm guessing companies). He observes that the New England town meetings shook the ground beneath his feet and caused his embargo to fail.

He didn't persuade Virginia to adopt wards/towns. As I've done before, I wonder the effect of this difference in organization.

Robert Putnam in "Bowling Alone" argues for the importance of nongovernmental social organizations as schools for democracy.  If he's right, surely the local government units are as important, if not more so.

A Third CFAP?

 Joe Glauber, former chief economist for USDA, tweets here:

The US farm sector just reported its 4th highest net farm income since 1970 (adjusting for inflation). So why more aid when there are millions out of work? 👇👇👇 https://t.co/HZuW99hyFy

— JoeGlauber--IFPRI (@JoeGlauber1) December 22, 2020

responding to this:

Congress should not give #farmers, who already have numerous safety net programs, more aid. @JoeGlauber1, @dwschanz, and Vince Smith argue congress should aid Americans facing #hunger instead in @thehill. #COVID19 https://t.co/1Ti3ogwWlp

— Philip H🌐xie (@phoxie58) December 22, 2020

Which in turn links to this AEI post.

Over at the Facebook group for FSA employees there was surprise and some consternation at the prospect of doing another round of payments. 

NASCOE has a summary here.

Sometimes I Underestimate the Military

I wasn't impressed by the military during the time I was in the Army; something which is likely reflected at times in my posts here.  But via Lawyers, Guns and Money I was directed to this article on Army anti-drone efforts, which seems impressive. 

The Meanings of Slavery

 I'm not sure what "slavery" meant in the18th and early 19th century.  One meaning obviously was chattel slavery, where a person was enslaved, could be sold, and the status was inherited based on one parent's status.

But what was the "slavery" which the American rebels feared at the hands of the British?  What was the opposite of the , "land of the free" in the Star Spangled Banner--was that also slavery?

One thing that's true--for centuries in many different places the losers in a war might be subject to slavery, or worse.   The New England settlers sold some of their Indian captives into slavery in the Caribbean. Oliver Cromwell sold Irish captives into the Caribbean (though I don't believe their status was inheritable).  Some Native American tribes imposed "slavery" on their war captives, although it seems there was a lot of variety in the patterns. I was surprised to learn that some Pacific Northwest tribes indeed had chattel slavery.  

I've not seen any discussion of whether the rebels really feared being sent into slavery if they lost the war, or whether the use of "slavery" was similar to the current use of "slavery" in connection with socialism by libertarians.

Autonomous Trucks

 Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution links to a report of Walmarts self-driving trucks, with no safety drivers. 

Tecnology Review and Food

Since I don't get the hard copy version of Technology Review, I'm not sure whether it's one issue, but this is the notation they attach to the beginning of a number of posts on their website:

"This story is one of a series about how hidden innovations produce the foods we eat at the prices we pay."

The big story seems to be: How to train a weeding machine. Does the work of 30 people. It broadens into a discussion of the problems of digitizing vegetable production, starting with Landsat back in 1972 (I remember ASCS had a guy in Houston working on Landsat for a while--big dreams back then.) 

There's also  one on GMO maize in Kenya A comment here--the farmer notes in passing:

"But I still have more crops than some of my neighbors, who sometimes recycle seeds and don’t have very much at all."

That one sentence seems to me to encapsulate the challenges for the small farm/food movement people.  It points to an evolution over decades which will lead to modernized production ag growing the bulk of our calories, with smaller operations producing for the niches. 

Thomas Jefferson and Hemings

 Reading "Most Blessed Patriarch:Thomas Jefferson and the Empire of the Imagination" by Gordon-Reed and Onof.  It reads well, discusses his ideas more than his deeds.  

I'm just part way through it, but I wanted to note an observations which struck me:  the authors write that in his own time, his contemporaries viewed his relationship with Sally Hemings as one of love, which was dangerous to the social structure;  while in our time most critics refuse to believe it was love, rather a relationship of power which was the essence of slavery.

Self-Driving Cars Revisited

Technology Review posts a puff piece written by Baidu, a Chinese firm which seems to be progressing well in developing a self-driving car, with emphasis on steps they've taken trying to earn the trust of potential customers. 

US firms are making progress as well.  The pandemic has severely limited my driving, so it seems as if a self-driving car could  fulfill my needs soon.

FSA Goes to the City

 It seems if you can't keep them down on the farm, FSA has been directed to follow them to the city.

Apparently the 2018 farm bill included provisions for establishing county committees for urban areas.  I missed the first announcement in August of the establishment of committees for these cities:

• Albuquerque, N.M.
• Cleveland, Ohio
• Philadelphia, Pa.
• Portland, Ore.
• Richmond, Va.

I did see the notice for these additional cities:

• Atlanta,
• Dallas,
• Minneapolis-St. Paul,
• New Orleans,
• Phoenix,
• St. Louis

Apparently Sen. Stabenow was the force behind the effort.  I'm not sure of the logic of stretching USDA agencies into the city, as opposed to stretching HUD into agriculture.  Lots to learn her.

Views of an Old Grump

 A collection of gripes, with no particular theme and no sources.

• FSA is one step further along to treating hemp as just another crop--a recent notice covered NAP's provisions relative to it.  I guess that's okay, but
• When I see the legalization of marijuana, I recall vividly my HS science teacher, a Mr. Youngstrum, cautioning us never to use marijuana.  The vivid memory stems from his vehement emotion, unusual to see in any teacher in that era.  I guess I know the arguments, and don't really oppose the trend; it's just a big change since my youth.
• I heard on the radio something, an ad I guess, which was anti-tobacco.  I think the woman said we could eliminate smoking in 12-15 years.  Hadn't been paying enough attention to follow the argument or her reasoning.  As a reformed 2+ pack a day smoker (long ago) that wouldn't be bad, although I'm skeptical of our ability to do so.  And it jars a big when contrasted to our position on marijuana.
• I saw a reference to "authentic self"--the idea being that achieving one's authentic self was the proper goal of living/education/something.  Hogwash and poppycock, to use expressions common in my youth. The idea renders me speechless/wordless.

The Labor Theory of Property: Parking Places

 If I recall my John Locke correctly, his theory of property was that the owner established a claim to property by intermixing his labor with natures. (My memory seems to be close according to this.)

The snowstorm expected tomorrow will offer the chance to create property.  While my home owners association provides two parking spaces per townhouse, a lot of people also park along the side of Greenrange Drive. After the snow ends, they'll have to shovel their cars out (assuming there's more snow than the 1-3 inches currently predicted).  In doing so they'll feel they've established a property right to the space, and a few will try to exclude others by putting traffic cones, folding chairs, or whatever in the space when they pull out. 

Justice for Black Farmers-- A Systemic Problem

 One of my problems with the draft legislation S.4929, JBF, is it is piling new programs on old programs. (The text has been posted on Congress.gov.)

In a rational government Congress would evaluate the success or failure of existing rural development and farm loan programs, change the law where needed, and reorganize the bureaucracy. If current programs are successful we could add resources, if they have weaknesses we could reform them, if they're too bad we could kill them.  But such changes wouldn't convince the advocates that reforms were real  and therefore wouldn't reward the Congressional sponsors. So instead we get more programs, with somewhat different approaches, 

Bottom line: it makes life more difficult for the bureaucracy.

How To Distribute the Vaccine

The Volokh Conspiracy had a post urging adoption of a point system to fairly distribute the Covid-19 vaccine.   I like the idea.  The military used a point system for demobilizing troops after World War II which seemed fair.  It's a way to handle cases where multiple factors are at work (i.e., an essential worker with underlying condition).

Gripe With the Met--Membership Accounts

 I've a gripe with the Metropolitan Museum of Art, specifically its website, and more specifically the way it handles membership.  I know I've run into similar problems elsewhere; I think one was the Wolf Trap website, possibly the New Yorker as well.  And my guess is that it's a result of hidden silos: when they got into the internet, separate departments did separate developments.  For the Met, the website is focused on visitors, describing exhibitions, how to visit, etc. and how to become a member.  What's missing is any focus on existing members--to find your member account info you have to go to the shopping option.  

It makes sense that the accountants would worry about renewals, etc. while the museum people just worry about getting people in the door.

But, if I were emperor, my edict would be that any website for an organization would have a "Log in/Your Account" icon in the upper right corner,

The Racism Behind the Decline of Black-Owned Record Stores?

I have a problem with some descriptions of the decline of black-owned farms over the last 100 years.

My problem can perhaps be illustrated by developments in another industry: record stores.  This article describes the growth of black-owned record stores.  But they are no more.  Why?  I agree that black-owned stores were more likely to fail than white-owned ones.  The owners were probably less wealthy to start with, and faced bias in getting capital for their operation. To the extent they were focused on a niche market they may also have been more vulnerable. (I'm not sure that's right--it seems that independent booksellers often have survived in niches where the Border chain went under,but for the sake of argument I'll include that factor.

But a major factor in the decline of black-owned record stores is the change in demand--people don't want vinyl or CDs these days, or not enough do to sustain a lot of stores. I'd make the same observation about the type (and size) of farm operations black farmers were mostly engaged in during the last century.

Improving Rural Life--Butchers and Regulations

Posted earlier on the need for Democrats to address rural issues.  

Here's another one, which fits with the liberal position about favoring small farmers, etc..  (Yes, you can take the "etc." as indicating I've some reservations about the food movement.) Better yet, it's an opportunity for a bipartisan play, as deregulation will appeal to the Republicans.

I've mentioned Walt Jeffries in this blog before. He used to post regularly at Sugar Mountain blog.  It may be now that he's switched to Facebook.  He and his family built their own butcher shop over a period of years, which was documented at the blog.  Had to go through the Vermont and USDA inspection and licensing process, which took a while but, somewhat surprisingly since he tends to the libertarian, which seemed to go relatively smoothly.

Meanwhile the Foothill Agrarian, a California sheepgrower, has lost the butcher  which used to process his lambs (as opposed to buying the lambs--the distinction is important).  His post here describes the problem.

I commented on the post with some questions, but it seems to me both Democrats and Republicans could agree on carving out exceptions to national or state regulations to ease the problem for local butchers.

Getting Ahead of Theirselves--JBF

 I've been checking Congress.gov for the actual text of the "Justice for Black Farmers" Act sponsored by Sen. Booker.  Today I found it; it's Senate S4929, but while it's been introduced and a number assigned, the text is not yet available.

The  bill is getting some publicity, both pro and con.  I may continue to post on it.

Haircut Time

 Had my second haircut since the start of the pandemic today.  Some trepidation, given the new surge of cases which has hit Virginia, though not as hard here as elsewhere in the country.  

Breaking the Rule--Japan

I have the "Harshaw rule", which says you never do something right the first time. 

There have been exceptions to the rule, one of which has just occurred--Japan has just brought back a sample from an asteroid--congratulations to them.

[Update: It turns out my compliment was undeserved.  According to the NYTimes article, there was a previous try at doing this, which had several problems.

"Hayabusa2 is not Japan’s first planetary mission. Indeed, its name points to the existence of Hayabusa, an earlier mission that brought back samples from another asteroid, Itokawa. But that mission, which launched in 2003 and returned in 2010, faced major technical problems."]

On Trump Judges

 Josh Blackman is a conservative law professor writing on the generally conservative Volkoh Conspiracy, but today he notes the failure of "Trump" judges to buy the Trump lawsuits. 

We should give credit when credit is due. 

On Regulatory Approvals

 The UK has approved the Pfizer vaccine for use; the FDA hasn't yet.  Some, like the Marginal Revolution blog, are critical. 

The FAA grounded Boeing's 737-Max for 20 months, before approving it this month. 

These are judgment calls, or actually likely a nested series of judgment calls in each case. 

There are some of us alive who remember thalidomide, and the British Comet.

I'm not one to second guess bureaucrats who have to make judgment calls with life and death consequences. 

Me and Kevin Drum I

 Kevin Drum  on Dec. 1 blogged his positions on an assortment of domestic issues. I commented that I agreed with almost all of them (I plan a separate post discussing them in detail) but he embodied the typical Democrat moderate/progressive in totally ignoring rural issues. 

Here's my thoughts on some issues:

• it's hard for me to see the revival of rural areas--farms keep getting bigger and more consolidated.  Even as some farms hire immigrant labor companies are developing technology to replace labor, especially robots.  So the depopulation of the farm areas will continue.
• I think the first priority is broadband for all.  Al Gore pushed Internet connectivity back in the day, the Obama administration supported it, but didn't complete the job.  (I've no idea of how well or poorly the Trump administration did.) 
• Broadband is the key to several things, changes which the pandemic has pushed along.

Telehealth.  The pandemic has shown the feasibility of this, provided there's broadband.  It needs to be pushed, as does permitting  healthcare providers to work across state lines.

USPS.  I'd change the structure and financing of USPS to raise its rural profile--to say more specifically that X is the money we, the nation, devote to rural areas.

Remote work.  Again the pandemic has shown that working remotely can be manageable.  

Drones.  Permitting and developing drone delivery might help rural areas.

James Fallows has a piece with a different orientation, but a similar goal--reconnecting rural and urban areas.

[Updated.: And here's another discussion.]

The Era of Commissions and Czars

 President-Elect Biden is planning a covid- czar, apparently.  I suspect we'll see more czars, task forces,  and commissions in the Biden administration than in past ones.

Czars can provide the promise of greater coordination among different silos.  There's a widespread perception the government does not act effectively, so the czar is one solution.  Cynically, it also offer another prestigious position for Biden to use in satisfying the demands of various parts of his coalition for influence.  (Think of a robin with one worm in its mouth facing four hungry chicks in the next.)

Task forces do much the same.  Trump's covid0-19 task force doesn't have a good reputation, but the Operation Warp Speed seems to be doing well at combining the efforts of HHS, CDC, FDA, and the military.

And commissions are a way to seem bipartisan and, at the least, give the impression of action while kicking insoluble issues down the road.  

To Start a War

 I like this book by Robert Draper.  A 3-star review on Amazon says there's no new stories in it, which may be true.  We know the outline of the decision to go to war, true enough.

I like these things:

• the book covers a broad area, but it doesn't sprawl.  Draper seems to do it by focusing each chapter on a key play so you get a balance of characters and narrative flow.
• Draper goes deeper into the bureaucracy than just the major players at the Cabinet and subcabinet level.  
• it comes off as a balanced appraisal, sympathetic to the players but appropriately critical.  (That means I don't see any intentional villains, just humans operating with their preconceptions and priorities which often led them astray.

Why Was Trump's Support Up in Rural Areas?

 I can think of two possible explanations I've not seen mentioned in discussions on this issue:

1. The billions of dollars Trump authorized paying farmers as compensation for losses from the trade war with China, along with the billions in food boxes under MFP.
2. More generally, I'm foolish enough to believe Trump got support because he was perceived as fighting for farmers and rural areas generally.  The facts may be that China won't fulfill their commitments under the agreement, at least not fully, but the drama of the tariff battles and the ensuing agreement would have been memorable.