I Remember the 1970's

 I'm not sure whether it's the Colonial Pipeline which runs through Reston, including under my garden plot.  

Apparently people are panicking about a potential shortage of gasoline, thereby likely creating the very thing they fear. 

Some of us geezers remember the 1970's, and the OPEC oil embargos, and the gas lines.  IIRC at one point we were supposed to hit the gas station on alternate days, based on license plate numbers.

Fortunately I:

• drive a hybrid Toyota Corolla
• never drove that much even when I worked
• drove much less when I retired
• drive maybe a third of the miles I used to, before covid
• just happened to fill my tank at the end of April, meaning I can go 500+ miles, which likely will cover me for half a year
• am smugly enjoying my situation.

Testing Coronavirus Vaccines and Getting the Shots

Oddly I find myself being confused about the vaccine.  If I were approached to participate in Phase III test of a vaccine, I'd likely agree.  Why?  It would be a contribute to the safety of humans.  That's good.

But when the vaccine has been tested and released, I won't be the first one to get it.  Why?  For the same reason I wouldn't rush to buy version 1.0 of software.  That's not particularly logical.  The Phase III trial would have identified any known side effects and proved its safety otherwise.  It's possible that there might be rare effects that are found only when millions, not thousands, are vaccinated.  (There was a flap in the 1970's over a flu vaccine, but it seems that after some years the fears weren't well founded.) 

The difference is that in the second case I'm acting mostly in my own interest.  The community will benefit from my being vaccinated, but that's a minor benefit compared to my participation in the trial.  So the risks to me of being vaccinated are the same in either case.

Contrails as a Metaphor for Covid-19

I like metaphors, using something concrete to grasp ideas. I was thinking about Covid-19 (surprisingly!) this morning, specifically the process by which the virus spreads. What gets complicated to think about is the elapse of time, particularly since I tend to resist binary choices--a person is infected or not.

So here's my metaphor:  think of an infected person as a jet plane flying in a clear sky, particularly a older one.  The plane leaves a contrail behind it, which over time loses its structure and dissolves into nothing.  The contrail represents the virus particles being

Nowfly another plane through the contrail, representing an uninfected person.  If the contrail is well structured the person is more likely to be infected than if time has passed or winds have dispersed it.

Be Afraid--What Are the Odds

I think the odds for the Covid virus having major impact on American society are low.  I might be unduly affected by the experience of the Ebola panic, when a certain person was panicking (initials DJT).

On the other hand, I think the odds for a very screwed-up transition from the Trump administration to a Democratic president in 2021 are about 100-1 (assuming we do in fact defeat the man).  The Obama administration started the transition process back in the spring of 2016.  Of course they knew they were leaving, but Trump will have problems imagining that process so I don't expect him to approve any advance planning before Nov. 2020.  After election day, assuming again he's defeated which I'm not offering any prediction for, he will be in no mood to facilitate any planning, so the process will have to be carried out by career officials, otherwise known to Republican partisans as the swamp.