The Decline of Flexibility

 Paul Krugman has a piece on the declining flexibility, looking at the supply of artillery shells for Ukraine and shipping containers during the pandemic. Economic theory says that capital should move quickly to solve shortages,  but Krugman says it's not happening now.

I don't think he says explicitly but I think part of the problem is the increasing complexity of manufactured products. The modern PC is much more complicated than the hand crank adding machine I used in an early job.  A modern artillery shell is much more complicated than the comparable shell in the Civil War or even WWII. 

The more complex the product, the more steps in the manufacturing process, the more suppliers in the network, the more opportunity for Moore's law to work. 

Network Effects in the Classroom

 Washington Post magazine had an interesting article by a university English teacher on teaching English, including through the transition in the spring to Zoom.
What struck me was this: 

"Especially in a class organized around discussion, it’s the level of the floor, not the ceiling, that most dictates the strength of the group. Even if you get lucky and have two or three great English students in a class, they can’t carry a weak group, and it’s more likely that the gap between the standouts and the rest will breed resentment....

My insistence that all students participate in class discussions isn’t just some kind of touchy-feely inclusiveness, nor is my insistence that they bring the reading in hard copy and shut off all electronic devices some kind of aggressive old-fashionedness. Rather, it’s a recognition that the class works better for everyone if we’re not dragging along silent or distracted partners, and of what’s special and valuable about what we’re doing. Students are essentially paying for two things in a humanities class: the admissions process that produces the students in the room, and the hiring and promotion process that produces the teacher. Everything else they can get at home, online: They can do the reading, study scholarship about the writers and their eras, post opinions and even watch lectures about literature (most of which are bad, so far, but if you dig you can find substantive ones, and in time there will be more).

What happens in the classroom — humans paying attention to books and one another — may seem rudimentary to a fault, but it’s a vanishingly rare and precious experience. Most of the people in the room will never again gather regularly with other people to think deeply about something they have all read, uninterrupted for 75 whole minutes by text messages, emails, buzzes, beeps, dings, klaxons, flashing lights, tempting links, breaking news alerts or GIFs of naked mole rats dancing..."

One way of thinking about this is the idea of "network effects"; the idea that the more participants on a network you have, the more attractive the network is.  So in a classroom, consider the activity, the speech in the classroom during the duration of the class to be a network, where the more participation you have the more value for all.

I don't know that the observation leads anywhere, but I like it.  

The Infection Chain

As I've said before, the progress of the pandemic seemsto have been from the most mobile and therefore whitest and wealthiest people, seeding various countries, then within the country a progression down the chain from most connected to least connected with the most vulnerable. Think of it as a forest fire, with the progression being governed by which unburned spots are most closely connected to burning spots, and the most flammable material in each spot.

So California and Washington had early cases. The Northeast was hard hit. Then things seemed tosubside for a bit, but there were warning cases in meat packing and nursing homes, etc. 

Then things moved south and west, as the networks hooked up to the vulnerable.  This is my explanation for California as well--the first wave there was the mobile upper class, the new wave is hitting Latinos and African Americans.

There's been a learning curve, particularly in the health professions, so we're in better shape thanwe were on May 1, though we now realize we weren't in as good shape as we thought then.

Degrees of Separation

Turns out there were three degrees of separation between a Swiss/German scientist and an American aristocrat.  Einstein wrote a letter to FDR on the feasibility of nuclear fission and bombs, which was transmitted because Szillard knew Sachs who knew FDR.  That's based on Isaacson's recent biography of Einstein--very good, though I'm listening to the Audible version,not reading it.

Viral Contagion and Networks: the Early Republic

One of my things in recent years is becoming more aware of the importance of networks in various forms and contexts.  I've the pet idea that the American Revolution laid the basis for the nation simply by creating networks across colonies which then enabled various forms of innovation and development in the early republic.  That may be true, but Boston 1775 notes an occasion where networks were not good; the first(?) tour of states by President Washington also seems to have spread the flu into New England.