Looking Ahead to 2024

 Sen Sinema's switch to being an independent is viewed as a way to avoid a Democratic primary which she would likely lose.  So if she runs as an independent in 2024 it may be a 3-way contest, possibly splitting the Democratic and independent vote and permitting the Republican to win.  There's lots of possibilities--if it appears Sinema will run, does that mean the Democratic and Republican primaries will be more favorable to the more radical candidates?  

I've also seen discussion over the adverse Senate map for 2024--Tester, Manchin, Brown, Rosen, and AZ are all chancy or adverse.   A Democratic who has rose-colored glasses might predict that by Nov. 2024 the economy will have picked up, having dodged a recession next year, and we can compare the country to 1984.  And Biden will have become popular, and the Republicans will have been flailing in Congress to do anything.  And if the Republican presidential candidate is Trump, or someone equally as unpopular and incompetent (hard to imagine, but don't underestimate Republicans), we could be looking at a landslide.

I estimate the probability of that outcome as <1 percent. 

Post-Election Thoughts

 I'm expecting the Republicans to control the House, assuming that Kelly will win and Masto lose, and fearful Sen. Warnock will not be able to repeat his runoff victory.  

I'd also predict there will be at least one senator leave Congress during 2023-4 due to health.

I'd predict the 2024 nomination will be between DeSantis and Youngkin.

Election Day

 My wife, my cousin and I are all uptight about the results of today's election. Of the three of us I may be the most relaxed.  As I see it, we've survived Nixon, Reagan, and Trump so far, so we can survive a possible Republican control of Congress for 2 years.

What happens in 2024? Who knows. I wouldn't bet on Biden, Harris, or Trump winning the presidency, although I would bet on the Republicans winning the Senate in 2024 (the map really really favors them--so much so Mr. Thiessen in the Post speculates that if the Republicans pick up 4 Senate seats this year, they'll have a good chance at 60 in 2024--that's disastrous). 

But predictions tend to extrapolate the current situation into the future, which may not be true down the road.  People will get tired of Trump, and Trump-like pols.  I've already seen a post at Powerline blog, the most conservative one I follow, hoping Trum isn't the nominee in 2024.  

It's all very interesting. 

Predicting 2024 Politics and Death

 Lots of speculation already about politics in 2024, particularly the presidential race and control of Congress.

I'll venture a prediction of my own.  The Grim Reaper will have a say. We have an old President, an old fomer guy, and a bunch of old people in Congress.  Between now and November 2024 one or more of these geezers is going to kick the can which will significantly change the odds of an important outcome.

Cynical Take on Federal Records Act

 Commentary on the missing Secret Service cellphone records has invoked the spector of the Federal Records Act, violation of which can lead to jail time.

We don't know what happened in the case, but I start with some cynicism.  I don't think most bureaucrats in most agencies know much or care much about the FRA. The leader of all Federal bureaucrats for 4 years, the former guy, showed exactly what he thought of it when he tore up documents he'd read.

The Act lacks an enforcement mechanism; NARA has no real power.  

I suspect, and predict, that the Secret Service has never taken the FRA seriously.  This might mean they simply ignored the preservation of records in past years, and continued that mind set in dealing with Jan. 6 and the upgrading of their cellphones.

We may find out if I'm right. 

Who, Me Worry? GOP Election Deniers

 Kevin Drum has a post on the election deniers who are seeking office. There's lots of concern over the idea that someone who thinks the 2020 election was fraudulent being in a position of authority over the 2024 election.

I'm not nearly as worried about it as others seem to be.

Why not?  Human nature.  Put briefly, I think once most of these people get into office (which I fervently hope does not happen), they'll try to run "fair" elections by their lights.  "Fair" may well include more restrictions on voting than I want, but I don't see many trying to stuff ballot boxes. 

Way too optimistic?  Maybe, but that's my prediction.

Jan 6 Hearing Starts

 I don't have high expectations for the Jan 6 committee's work to change many minds. Those who oppose the former guy may watch; those who (incredibly) love him won't. 

Trump Fades Away?

 FiveThirtyEight has a discussion on whether Trump is losing strength.

Although I'd like to see him run in 2024 because I think he'd be beatable (a poll today shows him being beaten by Biden by 10 points), I don't think Dems will be that lucky.

Why: he's not developing any platform of ideas, or particularly responding to change. What seems to get him going is his grievances over 2020 which is starting to get old.  If it feels dated now, think what it will feel like in 2 more years. 

A Civil War? No

 A rash of stories about the decline of our democracy and the possibility of a civil war.  See this in the New Yorker.

I'm not worried.  We've seen more risky circumstances in the past.  We forget the level of violence associated with labor unionization and the racism of the last century. We should be able to remember the divisions and violence of the late 60's and 70's, but we don't.

Our current polarization is different than in the past, but I don't think it's that likely to lead to wide-spread violence.  

If I'm to make a prediction, I'd say the level of racial/political motivated violence over the next 10 years won't rise above the level of past violence--i.e., homicides won't reach record levels. 

Concerns About Republican Changes to Voting Laws

 One of the things Republicans seem to be doing in several states is changing the law so that somebody can override the count of votes.  In a way they're fighting the last war: in the firm belief that Trump lost because of illegal/fraudulent votes, they're trying to make legal what Trump asked the officials in AZ, PA, GA, and WI to do.

This effort has a lot of Democrats very concerned.  It might be justified.  But I'm in a Pollyanna mood today, so let me outline why it might not be:

• I've not tracked them, but some of the law changes are, I think, occurring in red states, states the Republicans are apt to win in most elections.
• There's a big difference between Monday-morning quarterbacking and the beliefs you develop when you're part of the action. I'm relying on that idea here. In 2022 and 2024 the officials empowered by these changed laws will be active participants in the electoral process.  Hopefully we won't have a pandemic causing late changes to election procedures and laws, which was the big problem undermining Republican acceptance of results in 20S0.  So I'm hoping these officials will feel committed to the process and thus won't be looking and finding the false fraud which would justify their actions.

That's my prediction anyway.

Youngkin in Oval in 2025?

 Since McAuliffe lost in VA on Tuesday, attention turns to the victor; Mr. Youngkin. He's youngish (56) and obviously ambitious, so where does he go.  Virginia governors are term-limited, so in 2025 he'll be looking for a new job. Senator Kaine presumably will run for reelection in 2024, so one possibility is to run for that seat. 

Youngkin seems to combine some assets: a pleasing persona, enough political ability to thread the needle between Trump and Virginia moderates, a resume combining achievements in finance and in religion, plus the requisite family (four children).

There's discussion today of whether his campaign sets a pattern for the Republicans in the future.  The attack on CRT and support of charter schools is a tie to the right, while otherwise he seems to have a more conventional Republican platform.  So I think the test will be whether he can navigate the politics of the next two years, and lead the Republicans to a takeover of the Senate and increased margin in the House of Delegates in 2023.  If that happens, he'd make a good dark horse candidate.