Surprising Defection from TFG on Right

 Given Powerline Blog's support of TFG over the years, even going so far to oust one of its bloggers for insufficient loyalty (Paul Mirengoff), I never expected to see this post from John Hinderaker, who I think has been the most consistently supportive of the remaining three bloggers: 

The Former Guy Gave to Growers

 Via John Phipps, who retweeted it.  I was trying to find his skeptical piece on vertical farming, but found this worth reading.

My new report for @ewg just released today: Under Trump, Farm Subsidies Soared and the Rich Got Richer https://t.co/oL6xw2OTAS

— Anne Schechinger (@Anne_Weir1) February 24, 2021

Over the years different administrations have stretched the authorities granted under the CCC act and Section 32.   

[Update: One chart from the piece:

Tax Returns Public?

 I feel conflicted about the possible release of Trump's tax returns.  It's a slippery slope; release his and pretty soon you're releasing returns of all candidates, even for dog catcher.  The system BT (before Trump) was pretty good; candidates released tax information but they could fudge a bit around the edges. As long as they paid obeisance to the idea of public knowledge, they could get away with the fudges. (No, I don't have cases to cite, but just a vague memory of some candidates in primaries doing so.)

On the other hand, my great grandfather's taxable income was released back in Civil War days and published in the local paper, along with everyone else's. Why should we be different.

[Had an interruption to blogging because of house problems.]

Win, Win, Taxpayer Lose

 The Times had an article yesterday on the lawsuit against the Trump organization.  As I understand it, two employees have pled guilty for fraud--not reporting as income benefits they got from company, like tuition for kids, cars, etc.  But the suit is against the organization so the government must prove that their manipulations of the accounts to provide these unreported benefits were "in behalf of" the organization. Apparently it's a big issue.

With my bias against TFG it seems clear to me.  It was a "win, win" deal for the two employees--they got more compensation from the company through the manipulation without doing anything more for it.  What did the company gain? Presumably the employees were providing services worth their total compensation.

For example, assume the employee got $500K in taxable income, making $350K after taxes. He also got $250K in benefits under the table, the taxes on which would have been $75K  So the employee nets $600 K, the company pays $750K, and the US gets $150K  The US should have gotten  $75K more. So it's a win, win for the two employees, a loss for the US taxpayer.

How about the company? It's simple accounting, if someone loses, someone must gain. So who gained the $75K--I say the company, assuming a free market for the employee's services.  In such a market to hire the employee they'd have to pony up $825 in taxable gross salary and benefits.  

No to Trump

 I've mentioned the conservatives at Powerline blog breaking with Trump.  They apparently got a lot of flak about the break from the people commenting.  So they did a quick poll on whether Trump should be the candidate in 2024.  The results suprised me--very strongly anti-Trump. So the Republicans are shifting away, perhaps, and definitely you can't judge the readership of a blog by its commenters.

The Ghost in the Administration

 I've read more books on the Trump administration than I should. The books usually  treat some people worse than others.  Jared Kushner and Ivanka do well sometimes, very poorly in other books. And so forth for other major players.

One player who seems to have been able to survive without major enemies, or at least without participating in major controversies. is Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin.  The sole issue in my readings for which I remember him being criticized  is his opposition to banning travel from Europe early in the pandemic.  

Otherwise he seems to have operated quietly, not being criticized by Trump when everyone else was.  I may have missed some criticism since I wasn't conscious of his invisibility from the beginning.

His memoir would be interesting, to see how he did it.

A "Giant Anvil"?

 A quote from John Hinderaker's post-election analysis:

"At this point, Trump is a giant anvil around the neck of the Republican Party. In many areas, likely most, he is absolute poison. To be associated with Trump is to lose. Pretty much everything he has done in the last two years has been not just ill-advised but massively destructive to the Republican Party and to the United States."

 

Birx Book

 I've commented on it before.  Some bits:

• US has 574 Indian/Native American nations.
• Jared Kushner comes off as helpful and capable in this book, unlike other recent books where he and his young crew are mocked.
• Seema Verma is mentioned favorably.
• Birx doesn't come across as very flexible--she's focused on data, and keeps referring to the UP/CHop model, always emphasizing asymptomatic spreading. I don't know whether there any consensus has developed over the issue.
• She's down on CDC and portrays Redfield, the CDC head, as unable to move his bureaucracy in the directions she believes it should have gone, though he's one of the group of doctors (Fauci, Hahn, Redfield, and Birx who agreed to hang together). She thinks CDC should have people in the field with the state health departments (I didn't read her extensive set of recommendations at the end of the book).n
• She's no writer, so I did a lot of skimming in the last half. 
• She has an extensive list of recommendations, which I didn't study.  Now have Scott Gottlieb's book on the pandemic which seems also to look to the future. 

Hybrid Tanks

 Remember that TFG had big problems with the Ford aircraft carrier--the latest and best USN warship?  He told the Navy to go back to steam-powered catapualts instead of the electromagnetic ones they were pioneering.  Navy ignored him.

Just imagine what he'll think of the new Abrams tank the Army is getting.  It's a hybrid--I guess on the model of a prius though this doesn't give details. Presumably the diesel (rather than gas turbine) drives a generator to the battery which feeds electric motors.  Advantages in fuel consumption and a "silent" mode of operation.

Disadvantages, which the TFG will note:  it's new and therefore will having bugs.

Kellyanne Conway

 Much to the disgust of my wife I'm reading Kellyanne Conway's book, Here's the Deal.  It's quite readable.  It would be one hundred pages shorter if all the people's names were excised.  She's obviously a people person, a networker.

Two points of interest so far (just at 2016 now):

• she and her husband bought a condo in Trump Tower after they married. So far she's mentioned twice that it was on the 80th floor. That didn't sound right to me, so a little google: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_World_Tower. The article says it is 72 floors, but the elevator panels list 90.  Incidentally, it was designed with "virtuosity and grandeur", according to its website.
• her father and both grandfathers all left their wives and had children with their mistresses, which the lay psyschologist will immediately use to explain her tolerance for the former guy. 

Asking Questions

 Finished Sec. Esper's book. One point I think worthy of commenting.  Esper, along with Gen. Milley, found the former guy to be very erratic, often reacting to what he saw on Fox or heard from his last contact, and sometimes with highly unrealistic ideas of what could be accomplished (as in withdrawals from Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Africa).

According to Esper they often challenged Trump's wild hairs by raising lots of questions, often on the logistics of implementation, sometimes on legal issues involving internatonal law or the law of war.  That reaction accounts for Trumpians concerns over the "deep state" stalling.

Elsewhere I recently ran across a description of how environmentalists and NIMBY types delay and delay proposals for new pipelines (like the one Sen. Manchin got fast tracked as part of the IRA deal) by continually raising questions and legal issues.

So, I like Esper's questions, but am less enthusiastic about NIMBYism. Where do you draw the line, can you, between valid issues and stalling?  Because a new project involves unknowns, questions are inevitable and you can never resolve them all.  

Changing Times--Reversals of Roles

 Live long enough and you might find white becomes black and black white.  That's an oversimplification, but it applies this week.

When I was young (1950's) those who took the Fifth Amendment were frowned upon--then they were often Hollywood radicals, what were called "fellow-travelers" of the Communist Party, possibly spies, and certainly people who deserved to be dismissed from their jobs, blackballed from the entertainment industry, and investigated, tried, and convicted, not necessarily in that order.

Meanwhile, the FBI was led by J.Edgar Hoover, renowned defender of the American Way against subversives, spies, criminals (except organized crime, since there was none), and deviants of all stripes.  

Today of course the former guy has taken the Fifth and some in the Republican party want to defund or blow up the FBI.

Because the right has reversed their field, it tends to force liberals to reverse theirs: to condemn those who take the Fifth, defend the powers of government in investigations, and protect the FBI.

The Search Warrant

 My current bottom line is nobody knows nothing. So why waste bits writing about it? 

News Flash

Daniel Drezner who wrote a book on the infantile former guy, has some kind words for him: "Trump ... can move down a learning curve..."

His argument is that Trump spent most of the first term learning the basics of the government, so in a second term he could be more effective in implementing his policy goals, such as withdrawing from NATO and our alliances with South Korea and Japan.

Trump, the Last Gasp of the Patriarchy?

 There was a sudden burst of women running and winning as Republicans in 2020. Some of them were and are supporters of the former president, but I've the optimistic suggestion: future Republican presidents will appoint significantly more women judges and women administrators--indeed I predict the pattern will be much closer to that of President Obama, if not President Biden.

Trump Fades Away?

 FiveThirtyEight has a discussion on whether Trump is losing strength.

Although I'd like to see him run in 2024 because I think he'd be beatable (a poll today shows him being beaten by Biden by 10 points), I don't think Dems will be that lucky.

Why: he's not developing any platform of ideas, or particularly responding to change. What seems to get him going is his grievances over 2020 which is starting to get old.  If it feels dated now, think what it will feel like in 2 more years. 

Homicides, Car Accidents

 Homicides are up, fatal car accidents are up.  I suggest it's a combination of factors (that's always a safe suggestion):

• the pandemic, obviously.  We've built up a lot of frustration as we've had to adapt to change.
• Trump.  Leaders can set the tone.  In the former guy's case the tone he set was to act out your emotions, to be angry at situations you can't control, and to bully the people you can. (Wrote this yesterday, but see AOC making a similar point today--the tone set from the top can matter. 

  AOC links Gosar's video to a "nihilism" among Republicans holding that nothing Congress does really matters or is meaningful pic.twitter.com/zFYlFwI3f9

  — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 17, 2021)

• for homicides, there's likely been an impact on policing from the "defund police" etc. 

The Extended Mind

 The Extended Mind is an ambitious book, one which tries to link together a lot of science and social science research into many subjects.  Part of the discussion is the way in which our body affects our mind and brain; if we sense, gesture, or move it impacts the working of our brains in specific areas and ways. Space also impacts: are we in natural surroundings or built ones, can we use space to extend our memory (the "memory palace" method).  Finally how do groups (experts, peers, diverse groups) affect us.  The thrust of the discussion is how we can use the information/research to improve our thinking and effectiveness.

I found myself skimming. One of the Amazon reviews complains about the author's narration in the audible book being monotonal; there's something of a monotone about her writing as well (it would have been improved by following her own advice--adding graphics to the book, particularly for the "conclusions"). It would have been more useful if I were younger.   I did skim all the way through, and actually I found the last chapter ("thinking with groups") the most interesting, likely not in the way she intended.

As I read, two phenomena came to mind: the death of the concertgoers in Houston and Trump's rallies. She writes about how groups, particularly students or coworkers, can be more effective, but some factors are common: a common focus (speaker, performer) and common engagement.  Both were likely present in Houston and in Trump's rallies. I suspect I'm not too different from many liberals in dismissing the rallies in the past. But after reading the chapter I'm reconsidering, particularly in the light of Houston. Just because I'm proudly individualistic (I write with tongue in cheek) doesn't mean that others are. 

Should Agency HQ's be in DC?

 One argument against the Trump administration's moves of BLM and the USDA agencies out of DC was the need to work closely with the rest of the administration and Congress.

There's a hint in this discussion of CDC director Walensky (the HQ is in Atlanta but she seems to be working from MA?) that CDC is being hurt by the location.

Reading "Useful Delusions" and Trump as Fighting Hero

 Anne Applebaum has a piece on Mr. Lindell at the Atlantic, which happens to tie in with my reading of Vedantam's Useful Illusions.

Vedantam analyzes the possible usefulness of illusions using evolutionary arguments. Because you can find illusions throughout human history, there must be a evolutionary reason humans are prone to such illusions.  He argues it's useful to form social links, whether in religion or nationalism, whether in fraternities or tribal conflicts, etc.

So why "Trump as Hero"? Possibly part of the illusion surrounding the Trump phenomena is heroism.  Trump is, or presents himself, as the embattled warrior, fighting against all odds, against the media, the Democrats, the bad people in the world such as immigrants or China, sometimes victorious, sometimes just surviving to fight another day, surrounded by dragons but always stalwart, wielding his magic sword of bluster and venom.  And his supporters, what of them?  They're critical to his battle, whether through their cheers or donations, a part of the grand effort.  By identifying with his fight and following his efforts they participate in a narrative of our time, one which rises above the humdrum.