Managerial Delusions

The Washington Post's "Unconventional Wisdom" in The Curse of Drafting First highlights a piece by "behavioral economists Cade Massey of Duke University and Richard H. Thaler of the University of Chicago" claiming that top NFL draft picks don't earn the money they're paid--low first rounders and high seconds are a better value.

"One reason why top players tend to be chancy investments is that general managers think they're better at evaluating talent than they really are, so they willingly overpay for first-rate talent."

It's natural, I guess, to think that if you've spent your working life trying to understand football, you do. The same goes for many walks of life.