First Toilet Paper, Now Infant Formula?

 Saw a tweet suggesting that people who are scared by the shortages in formula are stocking up whenever they can.  That repeats an old pattern we saw in the 70's during the oil embargos where you'd try to fill your tank when it got down to half full; also the pattern during the early days of the pandemic where people stocked up on toilet paper. Such behavior in panics is selfish, and all too human.  I challenge anyone to do differently. 

USDA and Rural Development

 Politico has a piece on USDA's challenges with rural development. Some excerpts:

“We were in the community earlier today of 130 people,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in an interview last month as he toured the Delta region of Mississippi. “The mayor had zero full-time employees. There is no way that community could ever qualify or ever know how to qualify. Those are the communities we need to help.” 

The Agriculture Department oversees the largest set of programs focused on rural communities — roughly 40 — but there are more than 400 programs operating across the federal government

The wide swath of programs and the influx of money from Congress is intensifying long-standing concerns about how well federal money to help rural communities is getting to its intended recipients. In response, the White House has tasked the Agriculture Department with coordinating a pilot program, the Rural Partners Network, to help ensure the funding reaches the poorest and most underserved communities in the country. It is launching in five states and with three Native American tribes this spring to start, with plans to expand to another five, as well as Native Alaskan communities, in August.

 Rural Development staffing, specifically, has decreased by a third over the last decade, while their portfolio of responsibilities has increased by 80 percent, according to Justin Maxson, deputy undersecretary for rural development. In addition, 47 percent of Rural Development staff are eligible to retire.

This is Not Invented Here run rampant. Why do we have so many rural development programs--because everyone, in Congress and think tanks, everyone, thinks they have a better idea than what exists. So instead of modifying and improving an existing program, the incentive is to add a brand spanking new program you can boast to your constituents about, hopefully get reelected. 

Ignore the fact that it will taken the bureaucracy time to get up to speed on the program, even with the dubious assumption that what you've written into law makes some sort of sense.  So over decades of Congress doing their NIH thing,  the poor bureaucrat has to try to understand 40 programs, most of which, like ships, have attracted barnacles of interpretation.  And remember, the more time spent in trying to understand 40 programs means less time getting out and explaining them to the part-time unpaid mayor of a town with no stoplight, and helping her complete the forms and follow the process, much less implement a successful grant in the way Congress envisioned, long ago and far away.

So after years of this, and multiple attempts to reform and restructure the bureaucracy we come up with a new idea.  We need a new bureaucracy--the old one is too old, tired, disillusioned, and waiting to retire.  So instead of fixing those problems we'll create a new structure, where we can start from scratch and do it right.  We'll call it a pilot program--if it works we can expand it. Will we, the sponsors be around years later to assess its results and kill it, fix it, or expand it? 

ROTFLMAO

 

The End of Footbinding in Chinese Culture

 In the past I've commented on Prof. Kwame Appiah's book on Moral Revolutions, which includes a chapter on the end of footbinding in mainland China.  He argued that footbinding was a status symbol (Veblen would agree) which became tarnished as "old-fashioned" and not modern in the early 20th century when modernization was very important in China. So women with bound feet lost their value in marriage, so binding ended quickly-a revolution in morals.

Made sense to me.  Had some resonance because my aunt and uncle worked for the YMCA in China during that time. Among the things they brought back were pairs of sandals/shoes for bound feet.

But I ran across this paper, with this abstract:

We analyze the economic motives for the sudden demise in foot-binding, a self-harming custom widely practiced by Chinese females for centuries. We use newly-discovered Taiwanese data to estimate the extent to which females unbound their feet in response to the rapid growth in sugarcane cultivation in the early 20th century, growth which significantly boosted the demand for female labor. We find that cane cultivation significantly induced unbinding, with the IV estimations utilizing cane railroads – lines built exclusively for cane transportation – support a causal interpretation of the estimated effect. This finding implies that increased female employment opportunities can help eliminate norms that are harmful for females. Further analysis suggests that the need for human capital improvement was more likely to have driven the effects of cane cultivation, rather than the increased intra-household bargaining power for females.

Sounds as if the economists have an entirely different perspective. Since the paper text isn't freely available, I can't evaluate it.  But intuitively it makes sense that upper class/leisure class women would have their feet bound. 

Farmland Preservation

 Modern Farmer has an upbeat review of an early farmland preservation initiative on Long Island, dating to 1974.  Farmers sell off the development rights to their land, getting lower assessment and lower taxes.

It sounds good, but I wonder about the economics.  There's reference to a 23 acre farm. It may have been growing potatoes in the 1970's; Long Island's glacial soil was great for potatoes. But with changing farming economics and inflation, I'm guessing today's farmer needs to switch to vegetables and specialty crops to make things work.  Perhaps tomorrow the land will grow greenhouse or vertical farming.  How long can the deal last?

Ethnicity/Racial Data

 ASCS/FSA has had a history of trying to identify its producers as to their race and/or ethnicity.  It seems to me the problem is you can't require citizens to say what they are or consider themselves to be; you can't except for the Census Bureau.

According to this FEMA may be required to collect such data, if the new law passes. As there's more and more written about the disparate impacts of various programs agencies face that problem more.  IMO simply asking, whether orally or by form, is offputting--most Americans I suspect would react: what the hell business is it of yours? So you end up with correct information grudgingly given and an annoyed citizen, or incorrect information, or blank, which puts you into the position of eyeballing.

Packing Eggs in Modern Ireland

In the last century we packed eggs by hand. Now it's different. (Also, tractors have power steering.)

 

Check out Noel and Kate operating our newish packing machine. After 16 years of packing by hand we invested in a more efficient way to pack leaving more time to concentrate on bird welfare and farm managementper. ⁦@butlersorganics⁩ #LEAN #farmlife #eggs #organic #shopready pic.twitter.com/m5HN3bprMn

— IrelandsFarmers (@IrelandsFarmers) May 7, 2022

The Complexities of Cotton

 Virginia Postrel has a substack article, touching on changes in cotton production from 1920s (her grandfather was in the trade) to now. 

I commented on a couple aspects. 

Originalism and Lived Experience

 Just a gripe here. If I understand "originalism" as a way to interpret the Constitution, it says that the Founding Fathers agreed on a document which had one meaning. (No doubt that exaggerates and distorts but it's close enough for my purposes.)

Now I've been in a lot of meetings over the years, some of which involve a group of people coming to an agreement, others involving people trying to understand the meaning of one or more speakers.  I think it's fair to say that in most cases the people who were trying to agree or who were being talked to came away from the event with somewhat different understandings.  In most cases the context was such that the differences made no long-term differences, but the principle is the same.  No group of 39 to 55 people would agree on how to apply the document resulting from their meeting. 

Original intent is a myth, an "ideal type" as some  used to say, which doesn't exist in real life.

Tradition, Tradition...

 Says Justice Alito (who apparently loves Fiddler on the Roof) 

I write that after reading this New Yorker interview with Neal Katyal, who describes Alito's draft decision as rooting our rights in tradition.

A separate point--lots of speculation about who leaked the opinion and why.  It seems to me everyone is making up a story to fit their preconceptions--like Ginni Thomas being the leaker, because she's the woman we liberals love to hate.

Mission Creep in Ukraine

I blogged before about the difficulty of finding a way to a ceasefire in Ukraine.  Since then I think I see signs of mission creep.  

Ukraine seems to be doing much better in resisting Russia than we anticipated.  Ukraine is the underdog being bullied. We're seeing unusual unanimity in Europe about the war.  All these factors can feed into a certain euphoria/animal enthusiasm about the war.  

But I still don't see an obvious middle ground.  Ukraine and its supporters obviously want to repel Russia troops and oust them from their 2022 conquests; ideally they'd like to reverse the Russian gains of 2014. Ukraine also wants compensation for the damage Russia has been inflicting on civilians, housing, infrastructure as well as justice for the war crimes they allege.  Finally they want to remove Russia's ability to invade in the future. 

IMHO the chance Putin would agree to that agenda is nil. So for Ukraine to achieve its war aims they need a palace revolution in Russia.  Unlikely.  Think of Germany at the end of WWI and the "stab in the back". 

Put the Dog Out of Its Misery

 I'm not usually this harsh, but I've never ever been impressed by USA.gov.

As the spokesman in this FCW article says: 

""Right now, one of the things that happens is that people go to USA.gov and then we refer people, but it would be ideal, I think … for people to just be able to get stuff done, right there on USA.gov,"

I've always found Google to be a better search engine.  I don't see the point of spending money to improve the site.  It will be a long time before we have one access point for government that works well.  I've only to look at farmers.gov, which tries to be an access point for USDA agencies serving the farmer.  The problem is that it reproduces the silos of USDA.

Changing Views of Left and Right--Possible Images

 What sort of image do we have of our society and the left and right?  Often I think it's as if society is there, a platform or a landscape, while left and right act over time, moving one way or another. 

But is that a good image. After all society is people, as are left and right, so society can move as well. 

What's an alternative image: perhaps a crowd, some wearing red, some wearing blue, the majority, the less politically involved, wearing gray.  So you take a snapshot in 1960 of the crowd and you see the reds and blues scattered through the crowd. Take another snapshot today and you see the reds clustered together, the blues clustered-they've both become more cohesive. 

But that image doesn't reflect  a society's movement. Maybe an image is Hawaii, where the continental plate moves over a volcanic hot spot, which creates the various island.  In this image "society" would be all the people, the economy, laws, etc. So society could change because of innovations in technology, in the rest of the world etc.  Meanwhile there would be two "hot spots"; each representing a temperament which seems to be common in people at large: one conservative, one liberal.

That covers the fact there always seems to be a left and a right, a conservative and a liberal faction. And it allows for the fact that conservatives in the 1950's could be strong supporters of segregation, while conservatives today are opposed to racial segregation.

Don't know, maybe I need to think more.

Changing Views of Right and Left--Personal

Twitter activity on how left and right have changed, as here:

The thing about @NateSilver538’s argument here is that a Musk-owned Twitter would subsequently attract conservatives who have leaned way way WAY to the right, thereby refuting Musk’s original inductive generalization. pic.twitter.com/nhuJMnDF41

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) April 28, 2022

I don't know about the national picture.  I do know I've always considered myself on the moderate left and my views have changed sometimes:

• In the 1950's liberals were still supporting public power, the path marked out by the New Deal in the TVA and Bonneville power. That's no longer the case.
• In the 1950's/60's liberals thought that ending legal  segregation and establishing things like civilian review boards would be sufficient.  No longer the case.
• In the 1970s I was called for a month's jury duty in DC.  For one case I was successful in getting off on the basis I couldn't be impartial in a marijuana possession case.  Despite that, I've never been high on legalizing pot, though by now I'm a reluctant supporter.
• Liberals used to have no opinions on legalized gambling; now I guess they support it but it's not a top issue and I still dislike it. 
• Back in the 1950's/60's liberals supported decolonization and were hot for foreign aid. 
• In the 1990's many liberals supported the "Washington consensus" on global free trade.  I still do, but that seems to put me in the minority.

To be continued, maybe.

Form Design in the Digital Age

 An experience with the Massachusetts online application for an ID (just testing) got me to thinking.

Back in the day, that is the early 1990s', we got PC's with Wordperfect 5.0 at work. One of the things I played around with then was using its table tools to create Wordperfect versions of our printed forms. A good part of the motivation was just the challenge in seeing how far I could get and what was involved in getting as close a facsimile as possible.  IIRC sometimes I was able to create a version where you could enter data.  And I think the ASCS/FSA forms shop followed a similar path for some years, replacing the IBM composers they were using in the 1960s with PCs and Wordperfect.

The next step seems (when I retired I no longer was involved on the creation side) to have been creating online forms with data entry. I don't know the software behind those forms, but over the years I've run into them.  

But when you look at that process, it's a survival, like an appendix or wisdom teeth, left over from prior times.

Currently I seem to be encountering the interview process--a series of windows which ask for data piece by piece, with "back" and "continue" options and often with the data entered determined the next sequence of windows to be displayed.  That seemed to be the case with the MA application, also with the Kaiser Permanente appointment process I just completed, and in a modified form with TurboTax's process.  TurboTax is interesting because the end result of your interview entries is a completed set of tax forms for the user, although it looks as if the data sent to the IRS and VA tax people is stripped down to the data elements. 

Perhaps 50 years from now we'll no longer be using forms? 

Essence of Decision-- II Then and Now

[I belatedly checked and saw I'd already posted on this book, so I'm changing the titles of the two posts so they make a series. ]Part of a planned series on Essence of Decision, a very interesting book using the Cuban missile crisis as the core example of three modes of analysis of how organzations work and act.  

 I'm struck by how much Kennedy got into the weeds during the crisis.  Even so, as Allison/Zelikow describe, there were still disconnects where State, Air Force and Navy were doing their thing unaware of or misunderstanding his orders and desires.

Thinking about that presidency and the one completed on Jan 20, 2021, it's like night and day.  Kennedy both by experience in the Navy and by inclination was hands-on; the former guy is hands-on only when it comes to furnishing his buildings or painting his airplane. LBJ, Nixon, and Carter would, I think, have been similarly involved, though with different perspectives, strengths, and weaknesses.  Ford I don't know well enough, but I have my doubts. Reagan and GWBush no.  

So America was lucky that the former guy never had a real crisis.

Another observation--the Soviet Union's communcation network between Moscow and Dobrynin in DC was marginally better than the 1941 network between Gen. Marshall and the Hawaii command (telegram delivered by Western Union).

And one more--Kennedy didn't have the option of a "surgical strike" on Cuba--dumb bombs on jet planes were too inaccurate.The authors say the decision to go with the blockade was due to that lack.  Maybe with today's missiles he would have quickly gone to a strike.  Then again, maybe Khrushchev wouldn't have  decided to install his weaponry.

Essence of Decision--I : Models of Decision Making

[Updated to reflect that it's the first post of a series.]  Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow published a second edition of Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisi s in 1997. Some have called the first and second editions "classics", but it's not in print.  

Anyhow, just started reading the library's copy--they described three decision making models:

• Rational decision-maker: Model 1. What strikes me here is describing the nation as the decision-maker--i.e., why might the Soviet Union have decided to install missiles, etc.
• Organizational decision making. Model 2.  Where the focus is on the organizations involved in the decision makers, their processes, etc.--for example, DOD's perspective versus the Combined Chiefs versus the National Security council.
• Political decision making.  Model 3. Where the focus is more on the political maneuvering among the parties.

It's early days--looks as if I can renew the book a time or two. A couple things strike me already.  

1. We actually need a Model 0.5--the Black Box decision maker, also known as essentialism.  The Soviet Union was aggressively taking over the world, etc.
2. Not sure how the models relate to historians' descriptions of events--the narrative model.

We'll see. 

Amish/Mennonite Dominance in Farming?

 

Read this tweet today:

Young Mennonites posh with cash from selling in high priced areas are stopping at random farms around here trying to buy the farmers out. Fastest growing sector of farmers in my area, along with young Amish.

— NYFarmer (@NYFarmer) April 24, 2022

Back in the day it seemed as if the "Pennsylvania Dutch" and Amish were the same, with the majority living in PA.  In the 60+ years since I'm aware that Amish communities have been established in many states in the Northeast and Midwest.  I assume the Mennonite pattern is somewhat similar.  I know not all Amish are dairy farmers, or even farmers of any type.  And I don't know how heavily they're represented among those leaving dairy farmer.

 So my question is--are close are the Amish/Mennonites to establishing a dominance in dairy farming above the Mason-Dixon line?  How about the organic and traditional (i.e. pasture/silage) types of dairy? 

I assume the statistics aren't readily available from the government. 

Legacy College Students

This Atlantic article pushing for colleges to stop giving priority to applications from children of their graduates had a tantalizing sentence:  "Johns Hopkins abandoned it in 2014, reducing the percentage of legacy students from 13 to 4 percent."

If we like meritocracy, we should end legacies.  

News Flash

Daniel Drezner who wrote a book on the infantile former guy, has some kind words for him: "Trump ... can move down a learning curve..."

His argument is that Trump spent most of the first term learning the basics of the government, so in a second term he could be more effective in implementing his policy goals, such as withdrawing from NATO and our alliances with South Korea and Japan.

Global Warming

 Bits from today's media: 

• Charlestown SC sees "sunny day" flooding of streets about once a week.
• Since then, temperatures in Fairbanks have shifted so much that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially changed the city’s subarctic designation in 2021, downgrading it to “warm summer continental.”

Rights and Duties of "Natural Persons"

 Apparently there's an environmental/legal movement to grant/recognize rights of natural features, such as rights.  I'd guess it's an attempt by lawyers to sue on behalf of such entities against pollution, etc.  There's controversy, as might be expected, including conflicts with the LBGQ community, which seems to be the subject of this politico post.

But what intrigued me was the phrase in the post--"natural persons".  I thought of the granting of rights to "legal persons"--corporations which has recently been expanded.

Why couldn't we have a constitutional amendment to the effect that nothing in the Constitution requires that "natural persons" and "legal persons" be treated the same?

Taxes Done

It's not procreastination, really, or so I tell myself.  But we finished our Federal and VA taxes today and filed them.  Our tax rate isn't as high as the Bidens or Harris/Emhoff but we're close.   What we pay for civilization.  

Inflation and Greed

 Newshour is doing a program on corporate profits now.

There was a piece in the news today that mentioned the "rockets and feathers" effect, at least with respect to oil and gas. Crude oil prices can soar--the rocket effect--because the markets for crude are pricing the future.  Gas stations are slower to raise prices because of slack in the supply chain--current inventories were bought at lower prices.  

But while crude prices can fall quickly gas stations are likely to be slower to drop prices.

The wikipedia article also used crude/gas in the example.   I wonder about whether the effect applies much more widely.

Vikings, Medicis, Rome, Marco Polo, Last Kingdom--What Next?

We've watched those TV serials on Netflix and elsewhere--all based more or less on history. If the entertainment industry is running out of history to dramatize, I'd suggest series on the conquest of Mexico and Peru--I read Prescott's books on those subjects written in the 19th century, and mentioned them in a twitter thread--here's one of the tweets: 

Steel was a far bigger advantage than gunpowder in my opinion. And yes, there was some psychological shock, but only at the start. If you read more recent work (remember Prescott was writing in 1843) then the Indigenous people were far more impressed by horses than the weapons.

— Caroline Dodds Pennock (@carolinepennock) April 7, 2022

The Dormant Commerce Clause

This Adler post at Volokh led me to this explanation of the dormant commerce clause.  The Constitution gives Congress the power to regulate interstate commerce. The question is whether that includes the ability to limit the ability of any particular state from legislating on interstate commerce. The current answer is yes, it does, in at least some instances. The next question is what instances?  Can California require Iowa hog farmers to abandon gestation crates and chicken farmers to provide x square feet per hen if they want to sell their ham and eggs in California? 

That's the issue I wrote about here. No answers here, but at least the question has a name.

Surprising Fact About India

This blog post claims IT is the biggest industry. It does it by excluding farming as an industry, which is reasonable, I guess.

The American Experiment 111 Years Later

 TR has a famous quote about the "man in the arena" but the whole speech which includes it is interesting.  He's speaking as ex-President to the Sorbonne, and appeals to what France and US share: being a republic and democracy, an experiment in government.  The year is 1911 and the world is governed by monarchies. The excerpt:

Today I shall speak to you on the subject of individual citizenship, the one subject of vital importance to you, my hearers, and to me and my countrymen, because you and we are great citizens of great democratic republics. A democratic republic such as ours—an effort to realize in its full sense government by, of, and for the people—represents the most gigantic of all possible social experiments, the one fraught with great responsibilities alike for good and evil. The success of republics like yours and like ours means the glory, and our failure the despair, of mankind; and for you and for us the question of the quality of the individual citizen is supreme. Under other forms of government, under the rule of one man or very few men, the quality of the leaders is all-important. If, under such governments, the quality of the rulers is high enough, then the nations for generations lead a brilliant career, and add substantially to the sum of world achievement, no matter how low the quality of the average citizen; because the average citizen is an almost negligible quantity in working out the final results of that type of national greatness. But with you and us the case is different. With you here, and with us in my own home, in the long run, success or failure will be conditioned upon the way in which the average man, the average woman, does his or her duty, first in the ordinary, every-day affairs of life, and next in those great occasional cries which call for heroic virtues. The average citizen must be a good citizen if our republics are to succeed. The stream will not permanently rise higher than the main source; and the main source of national power and national greatness is found in the average citizenship of the nation. Therefore it behooves us to do our best to see that the standard of the average citizen is kept high; and the average cannot be kept high unless the standard of the leaders is very much higher. [emphasis added]

I guess WWI marked the change--the German, Russian, Italian, Austria-Hungary monarchies vanished and the US became more eminent in the world.   

Is Federalism Good or Bad?

 It's hard to tell, because it depends on whose ox is gored.

For example, California seems to be leading the way on animal welfare--imposing restrictions on how hogs are reared and how much space hens are provided. The state is being sued over this.

Texas is setting new restrictions on abortion, which may or may not be upheld by SCOTUS. Its being sued over that.

Obamacare originally provided for all states to expand Medicaid, but SCOTUS said that was going too far, so a bunch of states haven't done it.

I could go on and on.  The point is that most, perhaps all, people who have political views want the entire US to adopt their view. Historically that's not worked. So the question becomes a discussion of means to enforce uniformity. 

Can California set requirements for the ham bought into the state, How about the motor vehicles--can it set tougher standards than the national ones. Can Missouri set standards for what its women do outside of the state?  Can Texas restrict what comes in the mail (ie. the morning after pills)? 

Historians may remember that the Southern states were setting restrictions on anti-slavery material being mailed into the state, while officials in Northern states often resisted enforcing the Fugitive Slave Law.

Can anyone come up with a neutral standard that reasonably navigates these issues?

Korea, Ukraine and the UN

 I remember when North Korea invaded South Korea.  Harry S Truman was often a lucky man. In 1950 the world, most of it, at least the white and western portions, believed in the United Nations.  And the Soviet Union sometimes boycotted sessions of the Security Council. The invasion happened during a boycott, so the Security Council was able to agree on the use of force to oppose it.  

(For those many people who don't know the structure of the UN, almost all "nations" are included in the General Assembly (which in 1950 also included Ukraine plus another Soviet republic as well as the USSR) but the Security Council was supposed to be the fast-acting executive body with five permanent members (the WWII allies of USA, UK, France, (Nationalist) China, and USSR plus a rotation of other members. Each of the permanent members could veto action, which during the course of 72 years has eroded the UN's ability to act.)

So the Korean War was not the US and South Korea against North Korea and eventually Red China--it was the UN against the Reds. Wikipedia says 21 countries contributed troops, though the US provided the bulk of those coming from outside Korea.

So 72 years later we have a country invading another country, one of the permanent members of the Security Council, and neither Russia nor China is boycotting, so it's impossible for the Security Council to act. If it were possible, then NATO would have had cover to provide planes and troops to war. But as it is the UN becomes even more irrelevant.

I shed a tear for the dreams of the people after WWII who thought they'd fixed the problems of the League of Nations and the UN would lead the way to a better world. 

Religion and Liberalism

 Saw a tweet saying that mainstream Protestantism had been replaced by liberalism. Looked at another way mainstream Protestantism has always been evolving into liberalism.  Back in the 1960's "God is dead" was a fad, but the liberal World Council of Churches has, in my limited view and knowledge, focused on a common denominator of "justice, peace, and the protection of creation". 

You can trace American individualism back to Luther and Calvin--with various offshoots over the years going in the liberal direction, until finally the offshoots have overtaken the original Protestant thrust. 

Holton and Constitution

 Reading Woody  Holton "Unruly Americans and the Origins of the Constitution".  Some arguments he stresses:

• the Founding Fathers wanted to strengthen the national government more than they actually did in the constitution, because they knew they needed popular support to get it ratified, even after they reduced the required number of states to ratify it from the 13 (required in the Articles of Confederation) to 9.  
• Some debtors wanted sound money being optimistic about borrowing in Europe and the prospects for prosperity. 
• Most state taxes were tariffs (disproportionately aiding MA, NY, PA as opposed to CN, DE, NJ, etc.) and direct taxes--poll taxes and property. Founding Fathers assumed that national government would assume debts and pay using tariff revenues, which would mean a transfer of burden from the states with less import activity to those with a lot. 

Overall it's a reminder that what "history" books describe are a selection of episodes and people, but only they only represent the tip of the iceberg.  For example, the Shays Rebellion was the most visible and biggest episode of resistance to taxes levied to support the wartime debts of the states and to fund the government of the Articles of Confederation. But Holton describes a wide variety of actions in the various states with similar motives and causes for action.

Differences in Slavery in New World

 One big part of slavery in the US was the internal "migration", the movement of slaves from the Atlantic Coast colonies to the newer states of MS, AL, AL, AR, mostly it seems by sale  to slave traders.  

There are differences in the societies in different parts of the New World, partially from differences in Spain, France, and Britain, partially from differences in the crops being grown, and partially the climate/health conditions.  I know that; what I didn't think about until today was the difference in size.  The US and Brazil are big countries, while the Caribbean islands are much smaller.  So in the US slaves who gave trouble could be threatened with being sold to slave traders or "down river". On the other hand the slave population multiplied by natural increase in the US, less so or not so at times elsewhere.

So the question I have is whether historians can find a difference in what might be termed "mobility", except it connotes choice.  What was the probability that a slave born in 1770 in Virginia would die 200+ miles away versus the same probability for a slave in the sugar islands of the Caribbean?  And, if there's a difference, what impact was there on the societies?

Petroleum Reserve

 I'd support Biden's release of oil from the reserve if there was a provision for refilling it when oil prices are low.  (I'm thinking of a parallel with the old grain loan/storage program.)

What We've Lost--LWV and Local Papers

 My cousin, Marjorie Harshaw Robie, is recalling her days on the Ipswich School Committee by a series of posts Facebook page. 

Her initial run for the  committee was aided by two institutions which have faded since then: the League of Women Voters, which did two questionnaires of the candidates, and the local newspapers, which did interviews.

I assume it's not just Ipswich which has seen the fading, but general phenomena. 

EWG on Crop Insurance on Mississippi Flood Plain

When I first started working on the program side, ASCS had a disaster payment program, covering low yields and prevented planting for its then-usual crops: wheat, barley, oats, corn, sorghum, rice and upland cotton. The auditors had been critical of its administration, saying that the way the program operation ended up paying the same farm in multiple years. 

From what I remember the problem was a combination of legislation and human nature, or rather legislation and administration reflecting human nature.  Farmers are optimists, they have to be to survive the disappointments, so they remember the good years and not the bad.  That means the laws they supported provided for "Olympic averaging", ignoring bad years but usually not the great years. So the resulting payment yields were high, too high if you agree with the auditors that disaster payments from the government should be unusual.

The further problem was variability--optimistic farmers grow crops on marginal and hazard-prone land.  They've done that forever--much of the Great Plains in the 19th century.  Sometimes farmers are able to modify geography, using irrigation, levees, drainage, or terraces depending on the problem.  We're finding the limits to such measures, as now in the Central Valley of California.

Anyhow, this ramble was set off by a new EWG report on crop  insurance payments on flood prone land. 

Returning Lost Property

 Via Kottke, this article on return of lost property in Japan.  I'm reminded of some experiments done in this country--IIRC some involved leaving a wallet containing the owner's phone number with some money and seeing whether the wallet was returned, with the money. 

I think maybe it ties in with my recent reading of McManus on the Army's war in the Pacific--how was it possible to motivate Japanese soldiers to die rather than surrender--partially a concern for reputation in the community?  

The last thing I would think of if I found a wallet is whether my actions would be condemned or praised by the community. 

Commercial Airlines Using Electric Planes in 2026?

 United has contracted for such planes for 2026. At 19 seats they aren't going to be flying between major cities, but rather out to small cities.  I find that I flew in a Beechcraft 1900D which has 19 seats when I flew into Goodland, KS in 1992 or 3.  Goodland has since lost air service. 

KISS and the Constitution

 Reading Woody Holton's "Unruly Americans and the Origins of the Constitution".

I'm about halfway through but already have a reaction.  It's KISS, meaning "keep it simple, stupid'.  And that's what the Constitution did, at least partially. Holton's describing the conditions of the 1780's, and the conflicts which led to the writing and adoption of the Constitution.  Holton describes things, but doesn't see them as follows:

• the state of the currency and of state finances was poor, meaning that state legislatures had tried many measures to obtain money to pay off the obligations from the Revolution and to maintain the government.  While Holton is a good writer, I found the overall picture very confusing.  
• Americans found it hard or impossible to borrow money from the British or on the Continent.  They blamed the devaluing of bond issues and paper currency for damaging American credit.

Seems to me that the Brits, the European bankers, might well have been as confused as I am.  After all, you had 13 different states doing things with no consistency.  I assume that before the Revolution each colony had a network of contacts in the UK government and the banking community which had the knowledge and background to assess what was happening in the colony. That network was disrupted by the Revolution.  The Revolution also meant more interaction among the colonies/states, calling for more knowledge and familiarity with events in the sister states.  The British Empire had had the effect of simplifying things; the Revolution undid things and created complexity.

The Constitution was a step to simplifying things again. We'd still have a decentralized banking system, but by 1800 the issues of the wartime debts were clarified as the federal government took over responsibility.   

Where Have Friendships Gone?

 David Brooks has a column in the Times today discussing friendships, how many we can maintain at various levels of intimacy.  He ends by thinking our friendships have become fragile during the pandemic.

I'm certainly not an expert on friendships--I don't maintain the ones I once have, and since retirement I've not been creating new ones.  

I'm not sure Brooks is correct--I know my cousin's extended family has found new community bonds by having weekly zoom calls during the pandemic.  Before the pandemic, they were scattered across CA, CO, OH, PA, NH, MA, TX with much less regular contact.

I suspect the issue is what the psychologists call "availability"--we readily notice the  changes, the losses, which occur but we are less conscious of the new patterns we're establishing. 

Where Has Our Sense of Community Gone?

Short answer--damned if I know.

Longer answer--gone with dissolution of the Soviet Union. For my entire lifetime the US has had adversaries, first the Axis, then USSR. After 1991 we've had no such adversaries.  Brief flirtations with Japan as an economic rival, with Bush's Axis of Evil supporting terrorism, and later China as a rising rival don't match the threats those mid-century adversaries seemed to pose.  Today we're seeing with Russia's invasion of Ukraine we're seeing a resurgence of unity, of national feeling, etc. both in Congress and the country.

So--my answer: sense of community vanished with our enemies.

Gardening

 My two retirement hobbies are reading and gardening, in that order.  I've been gardening in the Reston community garden since a couple years after buying my house in 1976. Over the years my wife and I have settled into a selection of plants to  grow, some to eat, some to decorate.  Gardening connects me to the cycle of the seasons which was all-important to farmers when growing up. It also offers the opportunity to improve my game each year, trying different things based on the experience of last year. That's something which my mother was very much into.

The Reston garden follows organic rules, which is fine to me, except that it extends to banning preservative-treated wood for raised beds.  Not good, offends mypenny-pinching soul. 

Red Tractor--UK

 Saw a tweet complaining about the 230-odd pages of material the Red Tractor inspector wanted.  Did a search and found it's a UK scheme, as they'd say:

We are a not-for-profit company that is the UK’s biggest farm and food assurance scheme. We develop standards based on science, evidence, best practice and legislation that cover animal welfare, food safety, traceability and environmental protection. Around 50,000 British farmers are accredited to Red Tractor standards, which form the basis of buying and sourcing specifications for major supermarkets, household brands and restaurant chains, ultimately making life simpler for everyone,

50K is about half the active farmers in the UK, but I'm not sure of the definition. It doesn't mention organic products. 

I find this:

 "Results are weighted to represent the full population of farm businesses that have at least 25 thousand Euros of standard output as recorded in the annual June Survey of Agriculture and Horticulture. In 2019, this accounted for approximately 56,521 farm businesses. "  (That would be a little over $27,000 depending on exchange rate.)

Someone with ambition could, or maybe already has, compare UK distribution of farms with US. 

Signs of the Times--Regeneron

 Back in my time it was the Westinghouse Science Search but now it's Regeneron (it's a biotech company which I had to look up).

Here's the press release of this year's winners, dominated by Asian-Americans.

Two signs of the times here--Westinghouse going bankrupt, ending its sponsorship of the talent search, and reinventing as nuclear energy company, and the domination of the search by people whose ancestry isn't western European.  

I sort of regret the first--I think nuclear should have a role in moving away from fossil fuels--and applaud the second--the more brains from more areas we have working the better off everyone will be. 

War Porn

 As I sometimes do, I created this blog post  a few days ago, but with no text--just as a reminder to myself that I might have thoughts on the subject.

But I delayed, so I think Jack Shafer covers part of the topic--journalists like war partially because their audiences like war.  It's a good narrative, particularly David versus Goliath. 

When Does the Mud Dry?

 That seems to me to be a big question in Ukraine. Apparently the spring thaw there creates a lot of mud, meaning that Russian vehicles stick to the roads, which makes them targets for Ukrainian anti-tank weapons fired by drones or by ambushing troops.

But the mud won't last forever, meaning Russian tanks can maneuver and won't be sitting ducks anymore.  

Learning to Drive

 One way we progress over time is by having role models and acquiring social capital over time. 

I joined a local facebook group devoted to helping Afghan refugees so I could buy items off their Amazon wish list.  Now as a member I get their requests for help--the latest one is for people to help learning to drive and passing the driving test.

That was traumatic for me, so I thought about it.  Both refugees and some people whose families have always lived in urban areas without experience with cars face the same problems:

• first is access to a car 
• second is someone with a driver's license to sit in the passenger seat
• third is experience
• fourth is someone to take you to DMV for the test.

People whose families have drivers and cars have no real problems, but those who don't have a real hurdle to entry into the world of licensed drivers.

Resolving Ukraine

 There's discussion of establishing some sort of international guarantee of neutrality for Ukraine, suggested by the Austrian precedent.  Seems to me there are questions in getting to a resolution:

• how do we assess the balance of forces and the future--who does it favor and how sure are we of our assessment? Do all the parties have the same understanding, and do the publics in the US and EU agree with their leaders' assessment? 
• how does Putin get at least a figleaf for domestic consumption, or does he get more.  The neutrality deal and possible recognition of the two breakaway regions might do it, if Ukraine agrees.
• what happens to the Russian forces now in Ukraine--do they withdraw to Russia?
• what happens to EU/US sanctions?  How do the EU, US, and Ukraine come to a coordinate agreement on time table, etc.
• what about the damages from the war--does Russia pay any reparations?
• what confidence do the parties have in Russia's signature on any agreement? If we don't have confidence do we need to build up Ukraine's military?

It's a complex diplomatic and political situation.