There's discussion of establishing some sort of international guarantee of neutrality for Ukraine, suggested by the Austrian precedent. Seems to me there are questions in getting to a resolution:
- how do we assess the balance of forces and the future--who does it favor and how sure are we of our assessment? Do all the parties have the same understanding, and do the publics in the US and EU agree with their leaders' assessment?
- how does Putin get at least a figleaf for domestic consumption, or does he get more. The neutrality deal and possible recognition of the two breakaway regions might do it, if Ukraine agrees.
- what happens to the Russian forces now in Ukraine--do they withdraw to Russia?
- what happens to EU/US sanctions? How do the EU, US, and Ukraine come to a coordinate agreement on time table, etc.
- what about the damages from the war--does Russia pay any reparations?
- what confidence do the parties have in Russia's signature on any agreement? If we don't have confidence do we need to build up Ukraine's military?
It's a complex diplomatic and political situation.
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