Inflation Strikes Pizza

 My wife and I order the occasional pizza from Dominos.  For years our usual order was about $17 plus tip.  These days it's up to $31.  Part of that is the inclusion of a delivery charge, part is a more generous tip.  I suspect not only are the ingredients a bit more costly, but salaries for the help are up and management has been scared by the ups and downs of operating through the pandemic, thus becoming more cautious.  And the reality is that demand likely has stayed strong because of the pandemic. 

Rules of the Road in Space

 We've seen reports that the International Space Station has had to maneuver to reduce the chances of being hit by debris.  That's pretty straightforward--ISS can maneuver, the debris can't.  

What happens if ISS  and one of Elon Musk's satellites are on a collision course, or any set of two active satellites, each of which can maneuver?  (My guess is that such a collision is less likely than the debris/satellite scenario, but it must be possible.) If both maneuver there's the possibility they will increase the likelihood of a collision. On the sea, or on the road we have well-established conventions to minimize collisions. But in space? 

The Value of Consistency: Civilian Lawsuits

 Reading "Public Citizens: The Attack on Big Government and the Remaking of American Liberalism". 

I may write more about it, but I want to note that "civilian lawsuits" were proposed by Ralph Nader and his followers to enforce stronger standards for clean air and water.

Can we see this delegation of authority to sue as paving the way for the Texas SB 8 legislation on abortion?  Is there a difference in them? 

Social Security Administration and FSA

Washington Post yesterday had an article on the difficulties caused by SSA's switch to remote service.  The agency has over 1200 field offices. 

I'd love to see a comparison of SSA and FSA operations during the pandemic.  FSA would, I think, come out better, mostly because farmers have a history of interacting with their local office because farm programs are annual while usually people only need SSA once.  That may be oversimplification, but that's my guess.

But I'd also expect other differences, partly due to the county committee structure, partly the clientele, partly different histories and norms. 

SSA does have unions, as opposed to the NASCOE and farm loan groups.  They also have at least one Facebook group, as with FSA restricted to active and retired employees.

Covid and William Goodman

 William Goodman said: "in Hollywood no body knows anything" about what makes for a hit movie.

One lesson from covid is the limitations of knowledge, of expertise.  Over 2 years we've seen a lot of predictions, some were accurate within their frame, some were correct at the general level (i.e., the virus would mutate and the mutations would have different characteristics), but all had trouble tracking the changes over time.  

Another lesson is how vulnerable we the public are to misinformation. 

Merry Christmas

 And happy holidays.

GAO on USDA and MFP

 GAO questions USDA's approaches to calculating MFP benefits.  Too long, didn't read. (i.e., too complicated for an old man.)

Most Important Election: 1952?

 Here's a discussion of which election since 1945 has been the most important. Sadly, the experts omit any discussion of my favorite: 1952.  (They focus on 2020, 2016, 1964, etc.)

Why 1952? What was critical was the Republican nomination: Robert Taft versus Dwight Eisenhower.  Either could win, as the country was tired of the New Deal at home and of the Korean War abroad. Taft was the more conservative, with an isolationist history from before December 7, 1941. Ike was the more internationalist and the more supportive of NATO. 

On paper, if Taft had won the nomination and the presidency the course of the Cold War looks very different than what happened.  

I say "on paper" because Taft died in 1953 and we don't know who he would have chosen as vice president.  It might have been someone from the Eisenhower wing of the party in an attempt to present a unified front against the Democrats.  Or it might not.

Incompetence

 Bob Somerby notes that the texts Donald Trump Jr. sent to Meadows (and others) show that Trump's associates didn't expect a takeover of the Capitol.  Elsewhere Eric Trump said in an interview that the Trump campaign was too incompetent, too inexperienced to collude with Russians, which only confirms a Dana Milbank column of months ago. 

I think that's true.  Everything I've read about the former guy and his White House operation suggests he and they really didn't know what they were doing. So my assessment of Jan 6 is that it was throwing a bunch of darts at the wall, hoping that one of them would find a bulls-eye. 

Vertical Farming

So-called "vertical farming" is hot. I apply the adjective because I think the category is loose enough to apply to all envirnonments where controls are tight: maybe humans replace sunlight with Leds, replace the soil with a nutrient solution, ensure the temperature stays within optimum ranges, etc., regardless of whether there are two or more layers/stories worth of plants.   

The advantages are growing close to the market, tight control over diseases and pests, high degree of automation, more uniform quality of produce, etc.  The two big questions are the big capital investment required to start up and the continuing cost of inputs: mostly electricity for lighting and cooling and labor, especially for automation--these are questions because I don't think there's any installations which have had a long enough life to prove profitability. Perhaps a third question is the range of produce which can be grown for a profit in the most advanced setups. (After all, we've had hothouse tomatoes on the market for years.

GAO"s Farmers.Gov Evaluation

 From a GAO report evaluating the overall Technology Modernization Fund operation:

The Farmers.Gov Portal project was originally intended to update and modernize the conservation financial assistance and payment operations at the Farm Services Agency and Natural Resources Conservation Service in order to improve the services through the portal. The scope of the project was updated in August 2020 after the agency determined that additional process re-engineering would be required prior to further development of the technology solution for common enrollment processes for the two agencies. While the project developed tools to help reduce manual data entry, and developed a proof of concept for the system, the project was closed out prior to implementation in May 2021.

I wonder whether the closing of the project was due to its not meeting expectations or perhaps because of "not invented here" thinking by the new administration? I don't remember what I initially thought of the project--probably somewhat skeptical (since I wasn't involved, :-) 

GAO includes this rationale:

Agriculture leadership determined that additional process re-engineering would be required prior to further development of the technology solution for common enrollment processes.

USDA had two other TMF initiatives which seem to be continuing, although perhaps with reductions in scope and/or expectations.  

GAO's report is critical of GSA's management of the TMF; it wasn't specifically directed at the agencies with projects which received funds. 

From Estonia's Leader

I like to think I'm reasonably liberal and reasonably current with most trends, except for popular culture.  But I did a double-take when I saw the photo with this post of Estonia's leader.

So young and so blonde.

The Vietnam Morass

I happened to try to check Jill Lepore's claim that hundreds of thousands marched on April 15, 1967 in New York City to protest the war--it seemed high to me. That got me into deep waters.  The NY Times seems to say that police estimated 100,000, or possibly 125,000, although they were told to prepare for 200,000 to 400,000. Elsewhere including wikipedia the "hundreds of thousands" phrase seems to be established wisdom.  Not sure anyone has tried to estimate it as carefully as we used to do with crowds at the various inaugurals.

Elsewhere there's the question of the number of draft dodgers--Wikipedia offers different vague estimates in different places, but this site has:

For its part, the U.S. government continued to prosecute draft evaders after the Vietnam War ended. A total of 209,517 men were formally accused of violating draft laws, while government officials estimate another 360,000 were never formally accused.

That sounds so specific it must be based on some official document; unfortunately they don't provide any sources. 

It's a reminder to me of how fragile is the base of "facts" for our received version of history.

Master of the Game

 Reading Martin Indyk's "Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger: the Art of Middle East Diplomacy.  Just got through the Yom Yippur War, the one where the US went to Defcon 3 while Nixon was melting down with the Saturday Night massacre. The one where Brezhnev was apparently addicted to drugs and drink.  

A year or two ago I read a new book on the coming of WWI tracing the network of misunderstandings and wrong assumptions which led to the war. That's what came to mind as I read--the Soviets, the Egyptians, the Israelis, the Syrians--all were flawed players in the game. 

I doubt there's much chance of improving the rationality of our leaders--they're human after all. 

(After finishing the book, which covers Kissinger's successful negotiations to calm the area, and take advantage of opportunities to stablize the situation, laying the groundwork for Carter's Camp David establishment of peace between Israel and Egypt.)

I came away with an appreciation of Kissinger's abilities and even more appreciation of Indyk's approach: he's clear on the aims and tactics of the various players and their misjudgments.  Anwar Sadat comes off well as a statesman, amazingly for someone who was pro-Hitler during WWII.  The other leaders seem capable--no villains, just quirky people.

History and SCOTUS

 It's unfair that Republican appointees have dominated the Supreme Court for the last 50 years or so.  Elsewhere I've blamed LBJ for this. 

Currently liberals argue that the court is too conservative.  That's true.  But it's also true that the court has not always been a moderating influence, keeping America on a middle way. Back in the days of the Warren court it was fairly consistently more liberal than the country. IIRC there weren't majorities in the country supporting decisions like Brown, Carr, MIranda.  

It's also worth remembering that people on the right were talking about "Impeach Warren".  So far the liberals today aren't talking about impeachment.

Concerns About Republican Changes to Voting Laws

 One of the things Republicans seem to be doing in several states is changing the law so that somebody can override the count of votes.  In a way they're fighting the last war: in the firm belief that Trump lost because of illegal/fraudulent votes, they're trying to make legal what Trump asked the officials in AZ, PA, GA, and WI to do.

This effort has a lot of Democrats very concerned.  It might be justified.  But I'm in a Pollyanna mood today, so let me outline why it might not be:

• I've not tracked them, but some of the law changes are, I think, occurring in red states, states the Republicans are apt to win in most elections.
• There's a big difference between Monday-morning quarterbacking and the beliefs you develop when you're part of the action. I'm relying on that idea here. In 2022 and 2024 the officials empowered by these changed laws will be active participants in the electoral process.  Hopefully we won't have a pandemic causing late changes to election procedures and laws, which was the big problem undermining Republican acceptance of results in 20S0.  So I'm hoping these officials will feel committed to the process and thus won't be looking and finding the false fraud which would justify their actions.

That's my prediction anyway.

Another Error by Harvard Professor?

 I'm not really picking on Prof. Lepore, not much anyhow. She writes really well. But as I've said before I do enjoy finding errors.  This time it's page 109 of her book "If Then: How the Simultanics Corproation Invented the Future".  She's writing about the dance among Arthur Schlesinger, Jr (another Harvard professor who wrote well), Adlai Stevenson, and JFKennedy in 1960.  Stevenson is vacillating as usual over whether to run for president, and JFK is trying to keep him out, with Schlesinger in the middle. 

In two separate paragraphs she describes meetings between Stevenson and JFK, one on May 21, one in "late May" which was arranged by Schlesinger.  I have to believe it was one meeting, but the way it's written it sounds like two. I suspect she tried to describe the meeting in separate drafts which didn't get cleanly merged. 

I've not finished the book, but am enjoying it, as I remember the maneuvering then, much more fascinating than today's politics.

MFP and CFAP Political Effects

The bottom line of a study trying to assess whether the MFP and CFAP payments resulted in more votes for Trump in 2020:

We find the MFP and CFAP programs generated 677,512 votes for Republican candidate Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election with an estimated cost-per-vote-gained of $66,124

I say it's the bottom line, but the next sentence says the added votes didn't swing any states; rural voters were already pro-Trump. 

Vietnam Photo--Houses

 

How Our View of People Changes

 Over my lifetime many things have changed:

• Eisenhower changed from a middling president to something more, worthy of a monument on the Mall.
• Grant changed from a president presiding over corruption to a protector of black civil rights.
• Sadat changed from a tinpot dictator and Nazi lover to someone who risked and lost his life for peace.
• Bob Dole changed from a partisan hatchet man in the 70s to a well regarded last remnant of the Greatest Generation and a very funny man.
• Ian Paisley went from pope hater to almost a statesman working with the IRA.

I could go on but I think examples show two things: 

1. some people change over their lifetime, both as they change and their environment changes
2. how people are evaluated depends very much on who the evaluators are and what their environment is.

Vietnam Photo-River Scene

 IIRC we went over a bridge or two and by a river on the route from Saigon to Long Binh. Always interesting. 

Bob Dole: Detail Oriented

 When I was hired at ASCS in 1968 I became familiar with the handbook (17-AS) which had the distribution schedules for all ASCS handbooks. There was a form listing all the ASCS offices: state offices, commodity offices, and aerial photo labs, with the quantity to be sent to each.  Some states wanted a skinny distribution, allowing 1 copy per county office and a few for the state; others would allow for multiple copies per county.  Occasionally we have to create a schedule for new printed material, since the same schedule might be used for some related form or pamphlet.  All of that got me familiar with the number of counties (actually county offices) in the states. 

In addition to the preformated schedule, for some handbooks there might be one or two additional offices which wanted a copy for some reason, perhaps OIG, FCIC, or AMS.  The only Congressional office down to receive any handbook was Bob Dole's office, which wanted 25-GR, the designation for the wheat and feed grain programs.   The dedication to detail of the Congressman, or more likely required by him of his policy person, impressed me. 

I hadn't heard of him before joining ASCS, but he was elected to the Senate the next year. 

Estonia and Aautomation

 I like Estonia because of its whole-hearted adopting of e-government, which apparently carries over to other aspects of life.  However it's not all peaches and cream--the embedded tweet links to a gif of the robots:

https://twitter.com/xgebi/status/1466802322600775686?s=20

The morning in the Estonian capital began with a traffic jam of... robot couriers! Because of the snowfall, they stalled and could not move. Innovation doesn't seem to work in winter... pic.twitter.com/z6KHaWRGSK

— Deleuze (@Kukicat7) December 2, 2021

2.9 Billion Not on Internet?

 This report from statistia says there are that many people who aren't on the internet.

Is anyone else stunned by the stat? I'm more astonished by the converse: that means a majority of humans are on the internet, 4.9 billion to be specific.

  

The Impatience of Youth (and Ideologues?)

 Within an hour I read Frank Bruni's newsleterr (subscribe here) commenting on criticism of scientists re: covid:

What an inevitability. Science doesn’t usually figure everything out all at once; it’s a steadily growing body of knowledge, and its application, especially in the face of new circumstances, can amount to an educated guess, imperfect but invaluable. In the case of Covid, there was no awful screw-up. There was, instead, astonishing speed: These vaccines, powerfully effective, were developed and distributed in record time.

 and a Kevin Drum tweet responding to a Ryan Cooper tweet along the same lines:

Because scientists have the odd notion that they should look for rigorous evidence. The public doesn't give a shit about that. https://t.co/ALAdQfNxwm

— Kevin Drum (@kdrum) December 2, 2021

I agree with both--there's a lot of impatience these days. After a long life (hopefully to be much longer) I've grown more tolerant of people (except the people who post erroneous things on the Internet) 

Vietnam Photo--Men of the 69th Signal

Here's Thorn, seen earlier eating a brownie, and Dave Williams, seen earlier with me getting ready for R&R. 

Unfortunately I flipped the slide when I scanned it, as you can tell when trying to read his name.

A group of us in the barracks.

 A picture of me outside the MARS (Military Amateur Radio System, which provided radio calls back to the world) site for which the 69th Signal men were providing electricity.  The line of vision is towards Bien Hoa airbase, site of a Vietcong attack on amunition dumps.  The sandbagged bunker behind me was significant in my memory. 

Vietnam Photo--Men of the 69th

 I believe he's eating from a Care package my mom sent.

Vietnam Photo-R&R

 

Dave Williams and I are going to Tokyo on R&R. I seem to have lost the photos from that.

Missed Opportunities for Indexing

 Over the years our society has indexed a number of things--Social Security is indexed to the consumer prices, ETF's are indexed to various indices, income tax rates are indexed to consumer prices, etc.  Some social programs are means-tested and indexed to income. 

An index has two advantages IMO: it allows for gradual changes and it establishes a linkage between social factors. The gradual change is important: big changes get more recognition than gradual ones.  And psychology tells us that people get upset by the perception of loss, an upset which isn't balanced by their appreciation of gains. "Graduating" has similar effects.

I think we, especially liberals, should take more advantage of indexing.  For example, in 1993 the Clinton administration backed off its energy tax because of opposition from rural Democrats, particularly senators, and saw an increase in the gas tax as a fallback.  But what we should have done is index the gas tax to inflation. The effect would have been roughly to double the value of the tax. 

Another example: Obamacare was passed with a mandate, a financial penalty for not enrolling. What would have happened if we had graduated the penalty, Lessening the initial pain might have enabled the mandate to be preserved, instead of repealed by a Republican Congress. 

Vietnam Photo-Cathedral

 

This was in Saigon; I'm assuming a Catholic cathedral. Ngo Dinh Diem, the president of South Vietnam after the 1954 settlement which ended France's colonial rule, was a Catholic.

We Were Wrong (Third World)

 Noah Smith writes about China's economic progress and its problems here.

His description of the progress China's made reminds me of how wrong/mistaken internationalist liberals were in the 50's and 60's. Back then it seems to me our focus was on the need for foreign aid to help the "Third World" to advance.  I'm thinking of people like Barbara Ward. For all that our hearts were in the right place, I think it's fair to say we never conceived of China's path out of severe poverty. 

Thank goodness we were wrong, because foreign aid, while important and helpful, never reached the levels we thought were necessary. 

USDA Is Last (in Vaccinations)

 That is reported by GovExec here: " The Veterans Affairs Department and Social Security Administration joined USDA in bringing up the bottom of the pack, with all three agencies holding vaccination rates under 88%." 

I suspect the three agencies share a feature--extensive field staffs located in red states.  I know from some posts on the Facebook page for the FSA employee group that whether or not to get the shots caused some angst.  FSA for one is culturally conservative. 

Vietnam Photo--Street Scene

I liked the conjunction of the traffic mostly of bicycles with the Esso station. This would have been in the outskirts of Saigon, IIRC.

Sounds Like Advantage to Females?

 Steve Kelman reports on research in Federal Computer Week--"soft skills" help team performance. To me it reads as if teams will work better if they have at least one stereotypical woman.

Vietnam Photo

 This was a building in downtown Saigon. We didn't often drive through the city. When I first arrived in Vietnam before I got the camera, when I was running a generator it was at the MAC-V headquarters, IIRC. 

Vietnam Photo

 

I don't know any background to this statue--who or what it memorialized. Given the location and the time, my interpretation is it honors Vietnamese soldiers who fought for the French or the Republic of Vietnam (i.e. South Vietnam).

Alcohol and Weed

 Politico has a post on Prohibition, stating the case for prohibition being a reasonable reform with supporters ranging from Washington to Lincoln.  The writer is a historian with a new book out.  My mother was death on alcohol; looking back I'm not sure why.  I'm thinking there was some element of experience there, possibly from neighbors, or within the family; I don't know, I never asked. 

I can buy some of the argument, certainly the part about alcohol being one of the Progressive reform causes. Comparing the brewers and distillers to the today's peddlers of oxycontin and fentanyl is good, as is pointing to the impact of firewater on Native Americans.

Meanwhile, there are reports of national Republicans supporting the legalization, or at least the decriminalization, of marijuana. That's amazing to me, but it seems that it's the wave of the future.

I can't come out with just one standard rule for alcohol and drugs which I think would work for all times and all societies. 

Vietnam Transport

 Many of the photos I shot were during trips between Long Binh and the company's HQ near Tan Son Nhut.  All were 35 mm slides; I forget the type of film but many didn't hold their color so I've tried to adjust using Google Photo tools.

An End to Fence-Building?

 Modern Farmer reports  on a "no fence" system for goats.  Unlike "no fence" systems for cats and dogs, no buried wire marking the boundary is needed, just GPS  and other sensors.

It seems as if the same technology would work for any mammal, which would mean an end to one spring routine--fixing fence, which involved replacing fence posts which had rotted, driving in fence posts which were still good but had been heaved up by the frost, replacing rusted out barbed wire, etc.  

Laws about fencing date back centuries.  Depending on the agriculture in the area sometimes it was the responsibility of the animal owner to fence his herd in, in other areas the responsibility of the crop grower to fence out free roaming animals. "No fence" tech would seem to be the responsibility of the animal owner. 

One blogger I follow is Foothill Agrarian who raises sheep in California. He and some of the organic farmers have a system where they move their grazing animals from one field to another, or paddock to another, which involves movable fences.  Invisible fences would ease that work. 

The Vaccinated Are Smarter?

 I'd answer "yes", if you're smart enough to get yourself vaccinated, you're smarter than your unvaccinated friend or relative.  And I'd point to this CDC study (via Lawyers, Guns and Money--Paul Campos) which shows a big difference in death rates between the two groups: vaccinated and unvaccinated.

The big thing about the study is the difference is based on death rates excluding Covid.  

Homicides, Car Accidents

 Homicides are up, fatal car accidents are up.  I suggest it's a combination of factors (that's always a safe suggestion):

• the pandemic, obviously.  We've built up a lot of frustration as we've had to adapt to change.
• Trump.  Leaders can set the tone.  In the former guy's case the tone he set was to act out your emotions, to be angry at situations you can't control, and to bully the people you can. (Wrote this yesterday, but see AOC making a similar point today--the tone set from the top can matter. 

  AOC links Gosar's video to a "nihilism" among Republicans holding that nothing Congress does really matters or is meaningful pic.twitter.com/zFYlFwI3f9

  — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 17, 2021)

• for homicides, there's likely been an impact on policing from the "defund police" etc. 

A New Day Dawning? Leahy

 Sen. Leahy has announced he won't run for reelection next year.  On the Newshour Lisa Lerer commented on the number of old farts who are in the Dem leadership of Congress, and their impending retirements.

There's likely a transition coming for Dems, certainly in the House, more probable in the Senate if the next two elections turn out awful for the Dems.  

Currently it seems as if the Reps are on a firm course: Trump the likely nominee in 2024, McCarthy as Speaker, but McConnell won't last past 2024 if Trump is elected. The Dems are less clear: will Biden run for election, if not can Harris get the nomination or will it be someone else. If there's primary fight for 2024 will the nominee be defeated by Trump, as Carter was defeated by having a divided party behind him. 

My guess would be that Pelosi leaves if Dems lose the House in 2022. 

Why We Fight the Last War

 I've written before about my Harshaw rule--we never get it right the first time. 

I just realized this morning that there's a logical corollary: we always fight the last war.  Why? It's what we know, and when we're in a crisis, a new situation with high stakes, we revert to what we know.   The Harshaw rule says we don't get it right the first time because we lack the understanding and the habits needed to deal with newness.  

(This was spurred by an article in the papers saying that we responded to the pandemic recession by doing what we did for the Great Recession.)

[Updated with link]

Afghanistan Refugees

 An article in the Post yesterday on the arrival of Afghan refugees in in American society, particularly in the DC area.  Some children are already enrolled in local schools.  There's a NOVA RAFT (Resettling Afghan Families Together) helping--they've a Facebook page and an Amazon wish list.

My sister was active for many years in the interfaith group which worked settling refugees in the Syracuse area.

Changes in the Blog--Vietnam

 Over the years this blog has changed some.  Without going back and reading early posts, I think I wrote extensively on FSA/USDA, a focus which has declined over the years.  I think I've always been cautious about offering opinions, but I've become more political over the last 5 years or so.  I've rarely discussed personal matters. 

I'm changing a bit--having started to review some of the photographs I accumulated over the years I think some might find them interesting, particularly those from Nam.

I may have mentioned I spent 11 months 11 days in Vietnam during 1966-67 as a generator operator assigned to the 69th Signal Battalion. Shortly after I arrived I bought a SLR Pentax and started taking some picture. My company HQ was at Tan son nhut (airport)  in Saigon, but by this time I was stationed at Long Binh, a logistics base some 12 miles northeast of Saigon. My group ran generators for a communications center, which was located a bit outside the base's perimeter (I think; ignorance of the bigger picture was standard in the Army then).

This was late in my tour, as the communication center has now been enclosed in a building.  I'm reading (not sure who snapped the photo) by one of the two generators.  

More on Unemployment Insurance Systems

 I noted the use of COBOL in state unemployment insurance systems. 

This GovExec article describes what the Biden administration is doing.  I wish them luck, and persistence.

The Extended Mind

 The Extended Mind is an ambitious book, one which tries to link together a lot of science and social science research into many subjects.  Part of the discussion is the way in which our body affects our mind and brain; if we sense, gesture, or move it impacts the working of our brains in specific areas and ways. Space also impacts: are we in natural surroundings or built ones, can we use space to extend our memory (the "memory palace" method).  Finally how do groups (experts, peers, diverse groups) affect us.  The thrust of the discussion is how we can use the information/research to improve our thinking and effectiveness.

I found myself skimming. One of the Amazon reviews complains about the author's narration in the audible book being monotonal; there's something of a monotone about her writing as well (it would have been improved by following her own advice--adding graphics to the book, particularly for the "conclusions"). It would have been more useful if I were younger.   I did skim all the way through, and actually I found the last chapter ("thinking with groups") the most interesting, likely not in the way she intended.

As I read, two phenomena came to mind: the death of the concertgoers in Houston and Trump's rallies. She writes about how groups, particularly students or coworkers, can be more effective, but some factors are common: a common focus (speaker, performer) and common engagement.  Both were likely present in Houston and in Trump's rallies. I suspect I'm not too different from many liberals in dismissing the rallies in the past. But after reading the chapter I'm reconsidering, particularly in the light of Houston. Just because I'm proudly individualistic (I write with tongue in cheek) doesn't mean that others are. 

Whither Bipartisanship?

 Nancy Pelosi led a delegation of Congressional Democrats to the climate change conference in the UK. 

I'm old enough to remember when we used to have bipartisan representation during many major international efforts.  I don't know when that stopped.

NIMBY and Racism

 Recent articles on how industrial areas, particularly those with undesirable side effects such as air or water pollution from chemicals or what we used to call "junkyards", are located in or near black areas.  The usual theory is the choice of the site was racist in a sort of generic way.  

I used to try to slow my employees down when they tried to explain something to me--usually I wanted a step by step approach to get things clear in my mind.  That temperament is perhaps one reason I resist the implied explanation. 

I can imagine a cascade of NIMBYism that produces the end result without anyone involved in the decision making process being consciously racist.  Both a reaction against a proposed siting decision by rich and powerful neighbors, or the anticipation of trouble by those making the decision could play a part, as could a higher cost of land.  That's even assuming there was a decision point, rather than a more unplanned evolution of land use.

Should Agency HQ's be in DC?

 One argument against the Trump administration's moves of BLM and the USDA agencies out of DC was the need to work closely with the rest of the administration and Congress.

There's a hint in this discussion of CDC director Walensky (the HQ is in Atlanta but she seems to be working from MA?) that CDC is being hurt by the location.

Participatory Budgeting

 Apparently the recent elections authorized something called "participatory budgeting" in Boston (the link seems to say it's more of an exploration than a cut and dried deal). First I'd heard of it, although there's an organization devoted to promoting it.

Without knowing anything about it I don't like it.  I don't get many comments on this blog, but the longest exchange I had with anyone was on this issue, although neither the proponent nor I called it that.  I think my resistance is based on inheriting some "Progressive" or "goo-goo" ideas--the concept that professionals in management know better than mere citizens about what is needed and how to do it.  (I wrote the preceding sentence with tongue-in-cheek, and am only half serious.) 

I may look at it more seriously now, or I may get lazy and pass. 

Youngkin in Oval in 2025?

 Since McAuliffe lost in VA on Tuesday, attention turns to the victor; Mr. Youngkin. He's youngish (56) and obviously ambitious, so where does he go.  Virginia governors are term-limited, so in 2025 he'll be looking for a new job. Senator Kaine presumably will run for reelection in 2024, so one possibility is to run for that seat. 

Youngkin seems to combine some assets: a pleasing persona, enough political ability to thread the needle between Trump and Virginia moderates, a resume combining achievements in finance and in religion, plus the requisite family (four children).

There's discussion today of whether his campaign sets a pattern for the Republicans in the future.  The attack on CRT and support of charter schools is a tie to the right, while otherwise he seems to have a more conventional Republican platform.  So I think the test will be whether he can navigate the politics of the next two years, and lead the Republicans to a takeover of the Senate and increased margin in the House of Delegates in 2023.  If that happens, he'd make a good dark horse candidate.  

The "Essential America"

 Children believe in essentialism. So did ancient Greeks, apparently, according to the wikipedia article.  I don't.

Is "America" essentially a racist country, a white-dominated country, a city on the hill, a light unto the world, an imperial hegemon, a pillar of human rights?  My answer is some of all of the above, more so at different times in history and less so at other times, in some places and at some times.

In other words, it's complicated.

The Nose of the Camel and Government Programs

 This Politico piece traces the history of the pension program for Civil War veterans (Union army) from very limited coverage to close to universal, ending with its last payment in 2020 to a widow. It argues that because the vets developed an effective lobby organization (Grand Army of the Republic) they were able to expand the program over the years.  It goes on to cite the 20th century's Social Security and Medicare programs as similar cases where a program limited initially was expanded subsequently. All of this is in service to an argument that possibly the programs included in Biden's "Build Back Better" might have a similar destiny.

I don't quarrel with the writer's logic and hope for the expansion of BBB programs.  I do offer the instance of USDA farm programs as another instance of the expansion of government programs, an instance which is even more noteworthy than his examples.

In the years since the Agricultural Adjustment Act was passed, programs have expanded to cover not only seven or eight field crops, but oilseeds, fruits and vegetables, specialty crops, aquaculture, apiculture, etc.  The only crops whose programs have been reduced as of now are tobacco, peanuts, and naval stores.

Does College Broaden One?

I read this the other day:

A university is a place where minds should be opened, not closed; where perspectives should be broadened, not narrowed; where biases should be challenged, not confirmed. It would appear that many of our universities are failing at this critically important role.

It started me thinking.  When I went to college that was true.  But then I was coming from a mostly rural area and background, living in a time when my knowledge of the world was mostly limited to reading magazines and the Binghamton Press newspaper, short news broadcasts on NBC, and the books available at home and in the school library..  So encountering the variety of people and courses at college was definitely broadening, particularly socially, since I was already leaning liberal and agnostic.  College opened a world of choices to me, or at least made more real the choices I had vague glimpses of when in high school.

Would that be true today? I don't think so, at least for me.  If I were growing up today, I'd have had access through the internet to more information than all of my professors had in 1959, not to mention movies, videos, social media, porn, from across the  world.  If I wished, which I think I would have, I could have explored a multitude of careers and livestyles in great detail.

The "university" by its name has always been a place to encounter the universe of knowledge, but it no longer has a monopoly; it has to share its special position with the web. I think the change must affect the role of college as a rite of passage, marking a big change in one's life, and therefore collegiate culture. How can college be a liberating, a broadening experience when the incoming student has already experienced the variety of social media?  It can't, and students, at least enough students to make a fuss, want something different.

When I went to college activists were still protesting against "in loco parentis" rules, curfews, etc.,  We thought we were adults, and wanted recognition accordingly, using that as fuel for our rebellion against our elders. We wanted college to be a place of freedom.  These days the activists, both liberal and conservative, want school to be a refuge, a safe place for their identities.

The National Map and National Broadband

 GAO has a report on the problems FCC faces in providing national broadband.There's a new law:

To identify areas that need broadband access, the Universal Service Fund relies on maps of internet accessibility based on data collected from broadband providers. However, this data is not always accurate. For example, some rural areas with low populations are lumped together, and may appear to have access when they do not. This is because providers may report the entire area as having broadband even if only one location has service. The result of this mapping error is that resources to improve internet access do not always match the need.

To get more precise assessments, Congress approved the Broadband DATA Act in 2020. This required FCC to create a better map starting with getting more granular data on the precise locations of homes, businesses, and other places that could make use of broadband. Once this location map is complete, FCC will overlay broadband providers’ service area data to show which locations are served and which are not.

GAO notes the problems in combining available databases, like USPS, Census, and DOT address data.  Many of the problems mentioned were familiar from back in the day when we were trying to achieve consistency across counties and across agencies. 

What struck me was the lack of any mention of USGS.   So I went to their site, I'd not been in 10 or more years, and found the National Map. It's more impressive than it used to be, but obviously doesn't serve as the base for governmental action.  Took a look at Rural Utilities, which GAO also discussed, but they don't seem to have used GIS in their broadband efforts. 

I wonder whether other countries have been more successful in coordinating the rollout of broadband to their rural areas.

COBOL and Our Government

 Interesting paper via Marginal Revolution--a scholar found that inefficiencies and delay in  states still using COBOL to run their unemployment insurance systems hurt GDP.  

I calculate that the failure to invest in updating UI benefit systems in COBOL states caused U.S. real GDP to fall by an extra $181 billion (in 2012 dollars) during this time period. Three primary mechanisms account for the effect I find: COBOL states could be characterized by (1) longer delays in processing claims, (2) longer delays in filing claims, or (3) a larger share of discouraged filers: individuals who do not file because they do not believe that they will be successful in receiving benefits if they file or individuals that believe that the cost to file is too high. 

I've good memories of COBOL; for one thing that's how I met my wife, in a COBOL class.  

While I understand why states haven't redone their unemployment insurance systems, I won't lose the chance to ponticate on the subject.  In an ideal world we'd have a national unemployment insurance program, not 50+ individual state ones.  In an ideal world we'd find the resources to redo software systems more often than every 50 years.  In an ideal world we wouldn't leave money (GDP) growth on the table. 

Rational Consumers and Personal Histories

 Anthony Downs died recently--he was an economist who argued that people assess their choices rationally, particularly their political choices, which often leads to them not voting. 

A recent paper here argues for the importance of personal experience in shaping choices.  A recent article on inflation in the Post got a number of comments--I was struck by the number who recounted their history, or their parents history, with high mortgage rates back in the 1980s.  As for myself, when I bought in 1976, I ended up buying from Gulf Reston, choosing a new townhouse, although one of the last remaining in a 220 unit townhouse development.  Part of the factor for my choice was the 8 percent rate for the mortgage, as Gulf still had access to financing at that rate, although the going rate was IIRC closer to 9.  Rates cited in the comments on the Post piece were double digits.

That personal history makes me more sensitive to the dangers of inflation returning than most of my fellow liberals, who seem these days to believe it can't happen again. 

This isn't inconsistent with Downs theory, but it does fit the NBER paper.

.

Identities: Race and Religion

 Two of the more idiosyncratic bloggers I follow are University Diaries, written by Margaret Sotan, a GWU English professor, and The Daily Howler, written by Bob Somerby, a retired schoolteacher and Harvard grad. Both have, as my mother might have said, bees in their bonnet. I say Prof. Soltan's are guns, corruption in colleges, and Haridim. Mr. Somerby's are liberal media (particularly on education and statistics) and philosophy.  

Soltan has a post on an article from Mosaic, an online Jewish magazine, describing education in the Haridim schools in New York City.  There seems not to be much education occurring within the schools.  She calls it a cult, and questions its acceptance within American culture.  

Somerby has posts yesterday and today on a NYTimes Magazine piece on Rebecca Hall and an upcoming movie.  He questions whether an individual belongs to a race, and the nature of the linkage. Is it the one-blood rule, is it the context within which the person grows up, or something else? Is there any reality to race?

Seems to me both bloggers are dealing with issues of belonging and identity. If you view, as I do, the bonds between individual and nation as rather rubbery, stretching and contracting depending on the individual and the circumstances, under what circumstances do the links break.  I've no problem with the Amish Americans, even though they end education early and get some special treatment. But Haridi Americans (is that a term) stretch the bonds more, perhaps simply because they have the history here than the Amish do. But for both the Amish and the Haridi the bond between individual and group are voluntary, though as long as one is a member you're subject to group pressure.

Somerby's subject relates to involuntary bonds--you can't choose your grandparents or the cultural context you grow up in.  At least, they used to be involuntary, entirely determined by the community.  It turns out there is choice: first for those whose color is ambiguous, they can "pass", and now for many who can choose which parts of their history they accept.  (Somerby has some fun with the words "Allen whose great great grandfather...", pointing out she had several  great grandfathers (16 to be specific). 

Great Bureaucrats--Dwight Ink

 It will be interesting to see if the Times or Post run an obit on Dwight Ink.  GovExec is out with this tribute.

Cowen and McChrystal

 Cowen's interview with McChrystal--what struck me:

• he supports a draft, to get away from restricted recruiting from South and Midweat and military children, including women.
• big concern about getting the right people into the military for drones, surveillance, etc. 
• he supports a period of affirmative action (thinking about the history of women in the military) which means accepting the fact that some of the beneficiaries of AA will not be as good as their competitors.
• he still eats only one meal a day.

Other interesting bits there. 

When Did the Holocaust Happen?

I remember reading Dwight Eisenhower's "Crusade in Europe" (now a politically incorrect title) after it came out in 1948.  He describes his reaction to the death camps, including pictures of the survivors.  Then in the 1950's there was the "Diary of Anne Frank". 

But the "holocaust" didn't really occur, it didn't take shape as a narrative with a name and an accepted history until later, as shown in this Google ngram.

 

Buy Yourself a Hair Dryer? No--a Hay Dryer!

 As farmers in the Northeast were reminded this summer, lots of rain means poor or no hay.  It's difficult to make good hay, if you're dodging rain storms to cut the hay and then let it dry in the field (IIRC we'd usually mow one day, rake the next, and bale the third). I remember how dispiriting it was to spend a day cutting a good crop of hay, raking it into nice rows, and then see it rain for days, with dry spells just long enough to get your hopes up and turn the wet rows over to dry out, only to rain again.

Believe or not, and I'm not sure I do, they've invented and are selling a "hay dryer". The post says it's a staple in Europe, but dairymen in the US have only bought a few.  The Europeans argue that high quality hay reduces disease (i.e., listeria) and improves taste of cheese, and also feeds into the EU focus on natural food.  The EU subsidies for farmers may also help in financing. 

How the Sausage Is Made

 Does anyone remember the deals which Nebraska, Louisiana, and Arkansas got, IIRC, when the Dems tried to pass ACA? I don't remember whether the final legislation included the deals; I'm thinking not, but there was a lot of wheeling and dealing during the run up.  That's what I see today.

The Role of Intermediaries

 Started reading Sarah Chayes, "Thieves of State, Why Corruption Threatens Global Security". Early on she generalizes between Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union and Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban: naive Westerners come into the society, knowing and understanding little, find a "native" who's willing to explain and help and, often, are deluded by the intermediary.  That was her path. She entered Afghanistan in 2001.

Her description ties into an interest of mine I've had for a long time: the role of intermediaries/interpreters.  In American history we start with Squanto (as I first learned, though now scholars write "Tisquantum"). There's a long line of such liaisons, as time goes on often what used to be called "half-breeds", not sure what the correct term is now.  Even before Squanto there was "La Malinche", who was the interpreter, etc. for Cortes in his conquest of Mexico. Sacagawea was another interpreter.  

I suppose the media now serves in a similar role of interpreter/story teller and is similarly distrusted. 

But it's wrong to see it as wily natives scamming naive Americans; it's also the case that wily Americans scam the naive natives.  

Buying Out Coal Miners as We Did Tobacco Producers

 Took me a while but after seeing Alec Tabarrok suggest buying coal mines and discussion on twitter of paying coal miners, I realized there's precedent--we bought out tobacco farmers, or rather their tobacco quotas, back when the FSA tobacco program was eliminated. 

See this ERS page.

Politics and Vaccines

This twitter thread notes the outstanding performance of Puerto Rico in getting their people vaccinated--better performance than any state. It attributes their high rate to the fact their parties all support vaccination--there's no Dem-Rep split.

Zoom and HOAs

 The pandemic has been a shock to many systems, institutions, and habits; some good and some bad.  I think one good one is reducing the friction in social participation.

[For example, take a home owners association (HOA). After I moved to Reston I was automatically a member of the Pinecrest HOA.  As such for some years I participated in the annual meetings, but my enthusiasm waned as my guilt about letting others shoulder the responsibilities for the cluster increased.  So I don't think I've been in an annual meeting this century, much less the monthly board meetings.

But with the advent of covid the board meetings converted to Zoom.  That by itself wasn't sufficient to get me to log in, but a renovation of a sidewalk by our house raised an issue sufficient to get me over the hurdle, to learn Zoom well enough to [what's the term for attending a Zoom meeting?]. I noted this week there were 11 attending, 4 board members and 6 residents, plus the maintenance rep.  

I don't know that I will continue my attendance, but I think Zoom and the stimulus of the pandemic likely has permanently increased the interest and attendance at the meetings.  It makes sense: you no longer have to venture out of the house and join strangers, make small talk, etc.  Instead you just fire up the laptop or cellphone while sitting in your easy chair, and you have easy control over the degree to which you participate.  It's great for introverts, who must be a sizeable part of the population. 

The Worst of Times?

 Lots of attention being devoted to the state of our democracy and the nation  Poor, declining and heading to possible civil war seem to be common analyses.

I'm reading the new Jonathan Alter bio of Jimmy Carter, who cites the opinion of a British visitor in 1971.   At that time, with the Vietnam war going and racial problems stark and the boomer generation not trusting anyone over 30, the outlook seemed grim.  I remember it well. 

On Being Moral When All About

Thinking about judging people in the past for their action or inaction on moral issues, such as slavery, somehow I got to Rudyard Kipling's poem "If", which is about maintaining one's independence of others and circumstances.

The bottomline is that change and independence is hard to do.  Hard individually--think of everyone who tries to lose weight and fails, who tries to break a drug addiction and fails, who tries to stop smoking and fails.  Hard as a society--both liberals and conservatives can and do point to social problems they'd like to change, whether crime, divorce, homelessness, inequality; problems they have tried to and failed to solve. 

Discrimination in Lending Markets

 NYTimes reports on the Paycheck Protection Program, which it seems black business owners were more likely to get loans from online lenders than local banks. Although there's been publicity and concern about artificial intelligence algorithms being biased, apparently in these cases they may be less biased than the banks.  (The bias in algorithms would result from training the AI app using data which was produced by biased non-AI systems, like training an app to assess beauty by using pictures of whites.)

While the report described by the Times is on black businesses, it easily relates to black farmers, including som issues which I may have touched on in the past. Back in the dark ages of the New Deal the precursors of the Farmers Home Administration were authorized to fill a financing gap, to provide loans to farmers who were credit-worthy but had been unable to get loans from local banks. Even before then the Farm Credit system was set up in the Wilson administration for the same purpose. 

The Congressional Research Service has an overview of the farm credit situation.

The Downside of Government Programs

 As a liberal and retired bureaucrat I support government programs.  

But I need to recognize their downside, which relates to the "last mile". When a government sets up a program, it needs to make a connection with the customer/client/citizen who will benefit or whose conduct will be regulated. I've written before about our problems with making that connection.  But I've been writing from a government-centric viewpoint, saying that for example the Treasury has a hard time getting funds to support renters and prevent evictions out.

What about the perspecitve from the "man on the street", as we used to say? There's many problems--off the top of my head some are:

• the person may be "off the grid":''
• without a mailing address (i.e., homeless or on a reservation, etc).
• not have a landline or cellphone
• not have electricity
• the person may be on the grid, but not on the "social-government" grid:
• not interested in the world, not following news, etc.
• not receive information shared by friends or relatives
• the person may be in a position to receive information but:
• doesn't have the initiative, the time, the energy, the ability to research and make a connection 
• is reliant on a caregiver or guardian who's not conscientious
• is suspicious and must be educated and/or sold on the program.

Bottom line--how much effort do we expect government or NGO's acting for the government to expend in order to overcome the hurdles. My impression in the old days of ASCS, SCS, and FmHA was the different agencies had different expectations in dealing with their farmers.  

Even in the best scenario it's likely some people will fall through the cracks, meaning a government program always increases inequality between groups.

[Update: this isn't a government program but the principle is the same--as the article describes, most people are not aware of this alternative abortion option.]

"Gifted Students" and Rural Schools

 New York City is going to phase out its schools for gifted and talented students.  That stimulates discussion on social media, discussion which is largely among the educated classes who might lean Democratic.

It strikes me as an instance where the elite discussion unconsciously disses rural areas. In such areas the schools are smaller and the opportunity to do enhance instruction for gifted and talented students is constrained.  So to rural ears the discussion seems tone-deaf and irrelevant.

Vaccine Mandates

 I gather from this post in the FSA Facebook Group that the issue of complying with the federal vaccine mandate is controversial. I ran across a post somewhere today which indicated the actual process of implementing the mandate was going to take a while.  

I wonder whether with the delta surge declining will the administration actually go through with it.  It sounds as if even when implemented there would be a drawn-out process for penalizing anyone who didn't get vaccinated, so it may become a dead letter. We'll see.  In the meantime there's a lot of angst out there, and it may be creating conflict in small offices where there's strongly held divergent opinions.   

We who support the Biden's position need to remember the human costs of how it's implemented. 

Nondelegation Doctrine

 Volkh Conspiracy has a guest poster writing on the "nondelegation doctrine", the idea that Congress should grant power to the executive only with strict guidelines.

For anyone interested but too lazy to go to the Reason magaizine, here's my comment:

1. “Major policy decisions”? Do we know what that means? There’s a standard of economic impact of $100 million for regulations–but that’s been unchanged since it was first adopted in the 1970s in relation to inflation concerns, not policy.

   Arguable the USDA/Trump decision to spend billions from the Commodity Credit Corporation was a major policy decision. But it wasn’t particularly controversial, because it was too esoteric and there were no significant opposing voices to make a fuss. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/01/21/trump-tariff-aid-to-farmers-cost-more-than-us-nuclear-forces/?sh=4fe7a4966c50

   I suspect the operational definition is an issue about which there’s a big fight between the parties and/or interest groups. I think the reality is such issues don’t get resolved in legislation, just kicked down the road to the faceless bureaucrats who can be blamed if they screw up and/or offend people.

   Reply 

Motivated Reasoning and Farming

The TV weather this morning showed rain moving into southern California.  One of the blogs I follow is Foothill Agrarian, written by parttime sheep rancher and extension service employee.  His most recent post was on fall, his favorite season, and the complicated planning he and his partner needed to do to plan for the upcoming year.  The main complication was/is the prospect of rain or continued drought which impacts the forage available which impacts the health of ewes which impacts the lamb crop...etc. etc.  So the prospect of rain, though I'm not certain exactly where in California he's located, likely cheered him.

Meanwhile, a few weeks ago another farmer I follow on twitter was concerned over the inability to harvest and store rain, given the rains which were dominating the weather in NY.  I remember the years on the farm when we faced that problem, meaning we had to buy hay during the winter and/or buy molasses to put on the hay which we got in the barn only after it had been rained on (cows didn't like to eat such hay without the addition of molasses).

Back in the days when ASCS operated a disaster payment program IIRC the yields we used would be determined by averaging past years' yields, but dropping the bad years.  That to me reflected farmer optimism--the normal yield was always better than the straight historic average of yields. Now I see it as a reflection of what humans do: use motivated reasoning to support their desired outcome.

The Prevalence of Scams

 A rule of thumb: whenever there's money on the table, or "new frontiers" of opportunity, there's people who will exploit the opportunity.

Recent examples:

Apparently R. Kelly had a big entourage.  Other big shots, stars in various endeavors, have their own entourages, including the former guy.

People have been selling fake covid-19 vaccination certificates.

Several reports of people scamming the various pandemic-related stimulus programs. 

Pushimg the Envelope--CCC

 The former guy pushed the envelope of governmental laws and norms across the board.  That included the use of the Commodity Credit Corporation authority in ways which I think were unprecedented.  He mostly escaped criticism and legal challenges because there was no one, no group whose interest would be served.  Farm groups were receiving dollars. Conservatives were blind to Trump's efforts. Members of Congress responded to the interests of their constituents. Good government groups mostly aren't interested or informed about agriculture and USDA.

It seems the Biden administration is following in Trump's footsteps, judging by their announcement of using CCC for what to me seems like a grab bag of goodies.

The Strange Case of "Identity"

 Read, or skimmed, Julia Galef's book, The Scout Mindset.  I'd recommend it.  But what I want to write about is the mystery of "identity". The last part of the book covers how "motivated reasoning", or the "soldier" mindset as she calls it, is tied up with our sense of identity. Her repeated references to "identity" got me wondering when it became so important.

When I was young, I knew my identity was white, Scots-Irish/German, Protestant, farm boy from upstate New York. Child of John and Gertrude, sibling of Jean, with stories of ancestors immigrating to the US. But I don't recall feeling my identity was in question.  

Is it possible that these older sources of identity have faded away as society has changed and market capitalism has evolved so Americans and Brits worry more about identity and start to find it elsewhere?  Google Ngram viewer has been improved since I last used it; you can now search texts in languages other than American and British English.  When I used it to search for use of "identity", it started to be used much more around 1960. 

The pattern was similar for British English, but not for French, Spanish...

Prisoners Dilemma and the Democrats

 Some discussion this morning on the Democrats maneuvering in Congress led to this idea:

The Prisoner's Dilemma is a part of game theory where, per wikipedia: that shows why two completely rational individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so. In the game, if both players trust each other they can end up with an outcome which is good for both, but if they only look to their own interests with no consideration of the other player they end up with the worst result.

I see Senators Manchin and Sinema (MS) as one player; the progressives as the other player.  MS want the infrastructure bill; the progressives want the Biden "Build Back Better" bill. If the two groups cooperate they can get both; if they don't they may get neither.  Partially this boils down to how much trust the two parties have in each other, but mainly it rests on whether there's a compromise on the size and contents and tax provisions of the BBB which both can live with. 

A Parallel Between Chinese and American Development?

 A lot of media attention to China, specifically the possible bankruptcy of Evergrande due to overdevelopment of housing, triggered me. 

China's economic development in the last 45 years or so seems to have been based on privatizing land, or at least selling individuals and corporations a long-term right to farm or develop on a piece of land. (I'm hedging because I vaguely remember that perhaps they used long-term leases in some cases, rather like the Brits did sometimes.)

Anyhow, how did the Chinese state get the land? My impression is that as a result of the Chinese Revolution the Communist Party nationalized land in the 1950's, which they've been privatizing since 1980's. 

To me in a broad view that seems like what the English/Americans did--they nationalized the land held by Native Americans and then fueled economic development by privatizing. 

Best Women Characters from Dead White Males

 Yesterday I tweeted a comment about Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series and its lack of women characters.  Got a lot of adverse comments, which is fine.

Got to wondering about American literature and female characters. I couldn't think of memorable characters written by dead American authors, except for Hawthorne's Hester Prynne. Hemingway's Brett Ashley in The Sun Also Rises and Fitzgerald's Daisy Buchanan also came to mind, but I'd have to go to Cather and Wharton for better characters. 

It's sort of funny--I resist the idea that authors are restricted to writing only about their own, that a white male can't write a black woman, etc. But it does seem from my self-poll that similarity between writer and character makes a difference.

Searching google results in hits for English language works, so characters from Bronte, Austen, and Rowling come up, not to mention Chaucer.

My Prejudice Against Obesity

 I follow Tamara Haspel on twitter, whose feed included this response, the beginning of a thread on the genetics of obesity:

As requested by @TamarHaspel here is a brief tweetorial on my latest @NatureRevGenet review on the #genetics 🧬 of #obesity https://t.co/OsLHqyvy6w 🧵👇 1/7 https://t.co/RrxTOZQmkf

— Giles Yeo (@GilesYeo) September 23, 2021

If I understand he says there are relatively rare cases where a mutation in a gene causes obesity and more common cases where a constellation of genetic markers leads to obesity.  

For as old as I am, I think I keep up pretty well with the changing social norms, at least the more important ones. But I still have a hard time with obesity--I have a knee jerk reaction when I see a picture which includes obese people, particularly obese Americans. I'd like to think I don't act on my first feelings when I'm dealing with obese people in person, but you never know.

Maybe science will finally disprove the idea that obesity is a matter of willpower?

Landslide by Michael Wolff

 Wolff's book gets some 1-star reviews on Amazon, partly for bad writing and for finding Trump to be innocent of bad designs.

Needless to say that's not what I get from it. While there's some problems (many references to Giuliani's drinking and farting) and often the sourcing is clear, he moves the narrative along.  His conclusion about Jan 6 rings true: there was no plan because the "adults" had deserted Trump and those who were left in the White House were incapable of forming a plan, much less executing it. 

That reminds me of Dana Milbank's take from the Mueller report--while the Trump team wanted to collude with Russia, they were too incompetent to do so. 

Our Imagined Communities--Justice O'Connor

 LInda Greenhouse writes about Sandra Day O'Connor--two bits struck me: "Imagined communities" are the groups we think we belong to,

“Those who would renegotiate the boundaries between church and state must therefore answer a difficult question: Why would we trade a system that has served us so well for one that has served others so poorly?” Here O'Connor is writing an opinion, and her "we" refers to "Americans".

“I guess you know Senator McCain pretty well,” I ventured. Her response was instantaneous and almost fierce. “I do not,” she declared. “I’ve met him, but I don’t know him. He’s a newcomer to Arizona.” (Unlike Barry Goldwater, born in the Arizona Territory before statehood, John McCain had moved to Arizona after his discharge from the Navy in 1981.) Here Greenhouse is trying indirectly to find who O'Connor voted for in 2008 (and takes Greenhouse's reaction as indicating she voted for Obama.) Here I think O'Connor is identifying herself as a "true Arizonan", in contrast to the newcomer McClain.

I liked the way there were two examples of how the psychology of imagined communities works in the one article.  Note in the McClain example she's excluding, establishing a boundary, while in the religious example she's more appealing for people to include themselves. 

What FSA Employees Have to Deal With

 I'm taking the liberty of doing a screenshot of a post in the Facebook FSA Employees group:

When you're serving many people in all parts of the country all year round, you run into unusual situations, sometimes funny, sometimes tragic.  County employees have to deal. 

(While I'm on FSA, I'd mention farmers.gov, which has developed over time. There's also some Youtube videos--I'd have a link which I found yesterday but am having problems with Chrome.  Here's a starting point.

Empire of Pain

Finished Empire of Pain, by Patrick Keefe.  I think because of the sources which were available it's more interesting about Arthur Sackler, the elder brother and the initiator of the Sackler empire, than he is about the younger brothers Raymond and Mortimer, the grandson Richard who is most closely connected with oxycodone. and the rest of the descendants.

The New Yorker has an item on another scandal in biomedicine--Theranos, where Elizabeth Holmes is now on trial.  I found this applicable to the Sacklers as well:

It is incredible. I think there’s an entitlement to Elizabeth Holmes and her clan that you can’t underestimate. There’s a combination of self-righteousness and entitlement, and an absolute refusal to concede to mistakes or errors, much less fraud.

For the Sacklers, their contributions to many arts and educational institutions seem to be modern versions of the Catholic church's indulgences, which set off Martin Luther. It is a rejection of complexity, an unconscious assertion that a person is either all good (because of contributions) or all bad.  That's BS.

The Face of Our Nation

Benedict Anderson had the concept of "imagined communities"--essentially the idea that people develop a concept of nationhood through shared media, specifically print. 

I'm thinking about the face of America as I experienced it in my youth (1941-63), and how it has changed now, considering print and broadcast media. The America of my youth was white, basically WASP. I don't mean I didn't know of all the non-WASP residents, but WASP was the default, the presumed identity of any person mentioned in media. 

Our actors were Gary Cooper, Clark Gable, Alan Ladd, John Wayne and actresses were the Hepburns, Marilyn Monroe. Our TV series were Gunsmoke, Wagon Train, Bonanza.  Our radio shows were One Man's Family and Gunsmoke. You'll notice the mythology of my America was Western, the individual trying to do right. Our sex was heterosexual and rarely mentioned; gender was not considered.

These days the face of America as I experience it is multi-racial, multi-cultural, etc. 

I like most of these changes in America, but some, perhaps most, of my demographic cohort has real problems with them.  Change is hard.

Understatement of the Month: China Lobby

 Josh Marshall at TPM writes about foreign policy: "For years in DC there’s been a vocal China Hawk community".  

Actually it was decades, almost a century.  The China Lobby was old in the 1950's.  As I recall, it started with influential figures who were associated with missionaries in China, such as Henry Luce. (My aunt and uncle worked for the Y in China in 1910's-20'.) 

It was influential, meant we didn't recognize the People's Republic of China as real, and permit it to take its seat on the UN Security Council, until Nixon and Kissinger recognized it in the 1970's.  People such as George Will fought consistently against Republican and Democratic presidents on the issue, eventually focusing on the effort to keep Taiwan well armed.