Nostalgia for the System/36

 Brent Orr posted on Facebook about the System/36, which evoked a lot nostalgia from old-timers. Given the amount of cursing from the counties in 1985-90 it's a bit amusing to hear about how reliable the software and system were, etc. etc.  Lots of complaints early on which now faded away in memory.

I must admit it's rather satisfying though, because I and others invested a lot of time and energy, sweat and tears in it.  (I don't remember any blood being shed, but I remember a number of occasions where I drove my employees to tears.) 

Eggs and Dairy

Recent pieces on items of interest to me--the number of dairy farms has declined below 30,000 according to this.  And the average herd size in NY is a bit over 1/10 the size of CA. 

And here's a piece on eggs and inflation which covers different aspects of the industry..

Structural Versus Individualized Causes

 This post at Statistical Modeling suggests structural causes for an increase in traffic deaths, as opposed to the individualized "pandemic malaise" causes.  That is, congestion in traffic reduces speed and rewards safe driving within the design of the streets and roadways. 

I think it's similar to something I saw a bit ago--suggesting that a rise in crime was due to a changing mix of people on the street --i.e., the conservative, risk-averse people stayed away.  

My therapist was deeply impressed by nuclear energy; he called it the self-destruct engine where the chain reaction got out of hand and applied it to individual psychology. 

I'd apply the metaphor of nuclear reactors to now--society consists of older and younger, risk-seeking and risk-averse, conformists, and rebels.  In any situation, whether driving or just interacting in public, patterns of behavior take into account all the variations.  From 30,000 feet it seems the old/conformist/risk-averse component tends to act to moderate interactions, whether it's speed of driving or interpersonal conflict.  When the composition changes by changing the relative proportions of the population, you get a change in society. 

India and Estonia

 Marginal Revolution notes a twitter thread about progress in India, one man's experience with no indication of whether it applies across the very complicated country. 

1a. India is beyond advanced now as a cashless society! From street vendors to shops in the mall, everyone, everywhere is using Google Pay (or something similar).

A sugarcane juice vendor on the Dandi beach gave me a look when the QR code scan failed as I didn't have it set up!

— Dr. Karan Jani (@AstroKPJ) March 9, 2022

He doesn't describe a cause, but I assume the BJP/PM Modi would claim credit.  I'd be curious as to how Estonia compares, being a country which plunged into the e-world years before Modi became PM. 

The Good Old Days

Two prices of long ago came up today:

• the penny postcard. (It went to 2 cents in 1951)
• gasoline for <$.30 cents. This was before OPEC got powerful in the 1970's.

Ukrainian Agriculture

 I'm intrigued by a sentence in a recent Times article about agriculture in the Ukraine. We've become conscious of how important the country is as an exporter of grain.  This was a quote from a Ukrainian farmer, but what was intriguing wasn't the quote, but the description of the farmer--he was Dutch and part of a 1,000+ organization (don't remember but it might have been a co-op or a corporation) running a big farm in the Ukraine.  I wonder how and why he got to Ukraine, and how unique he is.  (I'm aware some Dutch farmers have emigrated to the US for dairy operations.)

Also intriguing are the pictures of the Russian convoy and vehicles which are stalled, or stuck in what looks to be very rich, stone free soil.  

Farmers and Internet

 The post on the Rural Blog reports that 28 percent of farmers with over $500,000 gross income have poor or no internet service. More farmers had a cellphone than had a computer.

Historical Evolution

One problem with historians is the Whig interpretation of history which is really IMO two problems:

1. the belief that the course of history inevitably led to current society, usually through the actions and decisions of men--often white and elite, though there's room for the MLKs of the world, adn
2. the belief that current society is good ("the glorious present").

Unfortunately some current historians throw out no.2 but keep no. 1. This is a tweet from yesterday:

The modern concept of race was introduced to North America to make working or lower class solidarity more difficult. It is still doing that. https://t.co/SpiLOfn6QR

— Sam Haselby (@samhaselby) March 7, 2022

I think the phrasing implies there was conscious intent.  I don't believe that.  

Trustworth Stats?

I'm basically skeptical of the statistics being reported from Ukraine. Too much confusion in the early days of a war--everyone gets excited and succumbs to the temptation of believing what we want  We saw that in WWII particularly with aerial combat in all theaters. 

Willie and Joe--Showing My Age

I was born before Pearl Harbor.  After the war was over I got a compilation of Bill Mauldin's Willie and Joe cartoons, depicting GI's in a picture of combat and service life that was more realistic than anything seen before,  A tweet yesterday evoked this memory.

The Army's War in the Pacific

 Been reading the John McManus  books on the Army's role in the Pacific (so far two volumes,carrying the story through the end of 1944 and the invasion of Leyte in the Philippines).

It's good, not as good as the Toll trilogy on the Navy, with less focus on overall strategy and the home front, but it does do justice to the Army which McManus says has been overshadowed by the Marines.  The first book is critical of MacArthur, the second book not so much.  In the controversies between Marine and Army generals he usually takes the Army side, but seems to be fair in assessing the good and bad of the leaders.

I was struck by the fact that the US had overall commanders--Nimitz and MacArthur, while the Japanese apparently always separated navy and army chains of command. We had friction between Marine and Army forces which apparently didn't exist for Japan.

The Future and Ukraine

Dan Drezner had a piece in the Post on the use of sanctions. As I understand him, he's afraid that we're imposing sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine more out of emotion than a plan, whether to contain them or to coerce them, and how and when the sanctions might be lifted. I commented there:

 Do we essentially call for unconditional surrender (of all of Putin's goals) or are we willing to offer a fig leaf? More importantly, can we and Zelensky remain united--there's no guarantee that he will see things the same way we do. Are we willing to fight on until the last Ukrainian fighter is killed? Is he?

Part of the problem I didn't make clear in my comment is we've got multiple decision makers-- Zelensky on the one hand and the "West" as represented by Biden on the other.  (And that's oversimplifying--while NATO and the EU and the rest of Europe seem united now, that's not necessarily the case in the futre.)  

I think we can predict that our high regard for Zelensky today will fade as we and he come to realize we have different priorities and aims. 

Some Progress in Thirty Years--FSA/NRCS

 I don't know how to link over to a Facebook post with its comments, but here's the url of this post: 

There are a lot of comments on it. Some point to closer cooperation between the two agencies and possibly some sofware support for such cooperation.

In the fall of 1991 there was the Infoshare project, trying to accomplish the same general objective.  As things turned out, it failed, I failed.  The history of the last 30 years suggests maybe I shouldn't feel too bad about failure because getting the two agencies together was more difficult than we realized then.

Maintenance Is Not Sexy--Methane

I've blogged before about the plight of maintenance.  I learned with ASCS automation that building new systems means increasing the burden of maintenance and decreasing the time and people available to do more good things.  I've applied that learning to other things.  

One is infrastructure--we don't maintain our roads and bridges as we should. Another is pipelines, as described here.

People like new ideas, new things.  Someone has a bright idea and others join in the applause. This often results in new legislation or whatever.  The people who originated the idea/legislation/proposal move on and eventually die.  Their replacements, even those with nominal responsibility for maintenance, have no pride of authorship, no emotional commitment to the project, so devote their attention and time to other efforts.

For proof of my thesis, compare the state of the pots and pans in your kitchen after years of use with what they looked like on the day of your wedding, when you received them.

What Happened to Civil Service?

 I'm not referring narrowly to the federal civil service but to the idea of serving the society, often through working for the government as a teacher or bureaucrat.

From a Jay Mathews column on education this morning--discussing a book on how to get into the top colleges, describing the audience for the book: "college applicants who yearn for admission to undergraduate institutions that will make them attractive, when they graduate, to recruiters from private equity, artificial intelligence, management consulting, investment banking and other top-paying professions"

Amish Versus Satmars

 New Yorker has a review of a book on the Satmar, the Hasidic sect with its own town in NY. It starts with this joke, which led me to think about the distinction between the two.  

In an old joke, a secular Jew sits down on a park bench next to a man with a large black hat and a long black coat. The secular Jew turns to the darkly garbed man and says, “What’s the matter with you Hasids? This isn’t the Old Country—it’s the modern world. You people are an embarrassment to the rest of us.” The man turns around and says, “Hasid? I’m Amish.” The secular Jew immediately replies, “It’s so wonderful the way you’ve held on to your traditions!”

For some reason I have warmer feelings about the Amish than the Satmar--why?

• Amish are/were dairy farmers, therefore closer to my heart
• More generally Amish do physical work, while my understanding of the Satmar is that the culture is focused on religious study. 
• Amish have been in US as long or longer than most of my ancestors while Satmar are 20th century.
• Amish are familiar, Satmar are strange.
• Amish seem to have been more withdrawn than the Satmar--to the best of my knowledge the Amish haven't used the power of numbers to seek political power, while the Satmar got their own town/city--we don't have the draft anymore so I don't know whether they'd be conscientious objectors to military service--I think the Amish were CO's. )
• I'm human, and susceptible to tribalism/othering.

Some perspectives from others and here.

 

Trump, the Last Gasp of the Patriarchy?

 There was a sudden burst of women running and winning as Republicans in 2020. Some of them were and are supporters of the former president, but I've the optimistic suggestion: future Republican presidents will appoint significantly more women judges and women administrators--indeed I predict the pattern will be much closer to that of President Obama, if not President Biden.

Changing Rural Population

 Interesting post on Rural Blog about the changing demographics of rural areas.  Briefly, for the first time ever total US population in all rural areas fell but the proportion of Hispanics/people of color increased from 17% to 20.8%.  The county where I grew up, Broome County, NY, saw its white population fall by 7 percent while the nonwhite/Hispanic increased by 60 percent (resulting in a 1 percent net increase).

Looking at the maps, it looks as if the Delta and the black belt saw drops in population, as did WV and KY and counties on the Great Plains. Looking at Fresno, CA, Sherman, KS, and Leflore, MS, counties I visited 30+ years ago, all saw a decrease in white population, Fresno a big increase in Hispanic, Sherman a smaller increase in Hispanic, and Leflore a small decrease.

An Ombudsman for EULAs?

 Marginal Revolution has a post which refers to EULA (end user legal jargon). Seems to me we consumers need an ombudsman with authority over all EULA's--someone who will read them on our behalf, because you know the corporate lawyers who draft them aren't concerned with the consumer at all.

Ideally the ombudsman would be able to do a version of the nutrition facts label on food--something which would summarize the critical facts for consumer.

No Fax Macine

Politico has an interview with Judge Luttig, a former circuit court judge appointed by a Republican, about his involvement in reinforcing VP Pence's position on 1/6. He was resisting an appeal from a friend to do something to help Pence, saying he had no platform from which to speak, and quotes himself as saying:

Oh my gosh, Richard, I don't even have a job, much less an official one. I have no platform from which to speak.” I'm out here in Colorado at 6 in the morning. I don't even have a fax machine.

As it turned out, he did get something out, by learning how to tweet a statement in 18 tweets (he'd just gotten a twitter account a couple weeks before), a statement which the media picked up on.

An Archive of Their Own

 As the early adapters among the silent and boomer generations go to the grave what happens to their digital archives?

As a failed historian I lean towards preserving every record, just because scholars have been able to wring meaning from the documentary evidence of the past, even when it's scant.  

As an active user of a Pc for close to 30 years, I know there's an infinitesimal chance that anything in my digital files would be of value to a future historian.  That's true in abstract, even more true given the lack of organization of the files.

A third factor is the ever-declining cost of storage, which leads to the logic of why not preserve it, because we don't know what future historians will be able to do using AI.

I suspect there's a niche for an archive service for personal digital files. That would differ from the services which archive what's on the internet.

Return to the Movies

 After roughly two years my wife and I returned to the movies today--Belfast.

We enjoyed it: some laughs, a moist eye or two, and an education in Van Morrison.

Judging by the audience covid took out a lot more old men than old women.

I can't say whether it deserves "Best Picture", but it deserves the nomination.

Egalitarianism and Mobility

 Ran across a statement in a discussion of declining social mobility in the US that these days the more equal societies have more social mobility.

I wonder if there's math working here.  Consider the US--our top income class has been gaining wealth for some time now.  It used to be the CEO earned 20 times (figure pulled out of the air) what the lowest paid employee in the company did.  Now it's more like 100 times.   Doesn't that make it more unlikely the employee will ever get into the top 20 percent of earnings? 

Who Would Enslave Britons in the Eighteenth Century?

 What threatened Britain in the 18th century that Britons would not be slaves, as in the refrain of Rule, Britannia. The poetry was written by James Thomson, a Scot for whom there's not much other information easily available. 

The year of the poem is 1740 and it turns out the poem was written after the British took Porto Bello in the War of Jenkin's Ear.  Fears of the Jacobite Rebellion of 1745 might have been a factor, since France and Spain were supporting the Stuart pretender to the throne by 1743. So it's wartime when he's writing, the Brits have a victory, and the poem is both boastful and anxious.

The "slavery" in the poem is rhetorical, not descriptive of anything like chattel slavery.

Basic Training 20 Years Ago, and 56 Years Ago

 Here's a description of Army basic training as of 1999. 

Some things struck me--the expansion from 8 to 10 weeks first of all.  Sounds as if they've used the extra time for more military stuff-I don't remember a full week of field exercises, nor any exposure to machine guns.

 No mention of policing the area. . Policing the area was basically forming a line and picking up cigarette butts. I wonder if that still happens, given the decline in smoking since 1960's? 

KP--glad to see they still make young troops do it.  By the time I got through basic at Fort Dix and went to Ft. Belvoir they had started contracting it out there.

The pay--$380 a week?  We got $80, IIRC.

"A Cage of My Circumstances"

 That's a phrase from Zadie Smith's recent book of essays. She's using it in the context of her body, a female black body.

I like the image.  On the one hand you have the concept of "privilege", which is sort of like a backpack containing an assortment of tools, which is that your history empowers you.  On the other hand you have a cage of circumstances, which is the idea that your history limits you.  Both I think are true.

How Serious Would Ukraine Be

 David Brooks on the Newshour has a rosy picture of post-1945 European history.  He said last night on the Newshour that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be most serious military action since 1945.  

I don't buy it.  Both Russia and the US know they will try to avoid war.  The two nations have learned over the 76 years since WWII they can compete and conflict without going to armed conflict. 

We and the Soviet Union/Russia didn't know that with Berlin in 1948, Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968. We didn't know we could avoid conflict, and we believed that conflict would lead to nuclear war.

Ukraine is serious because of Murphy's law and the likelihood of unforeseen events. But I think we've seen worse, though that may just reflect my advancing age.

The Commodity Credit Corporation Piggy Bank

 CCC was set up in the 1930's. One of the reasons was to handle the money for entitlement programs: farm programs which established payment rates for doing or not doing things without an appropriation, a cap.  

When I worked at ASCS there was still a sharp division between CCC and ASCS. CCC decisions were made by the CCC, composed of the administrators of affected agencies and the secretary's office.  There were a couple bureaucrats handling the development of "dockets" for the board, which recorded the rationale for the decision and included the regulations to be published in the Federal Register, Chapter 7, secs. 1400-1499. 

There were bureaucratic implications: if Congress passed a program with authority to use CCC facilities, it meant that the Printing and Distribution Branch could tap CCC funds to print forms and handbooks on an emergency basis and, I believe, bypass the Government Printing Office's time-consuming process. And the expenses weren't charged to ASCS administrative appropriation.

On the equipment side, similar logic applied.  If equipment could be tied to CCC operations, then it was charged to CCC and not ASCS.

As automation came along, first with programmable calculators and then System/36, etc. the IT types were able to use CCC money.

It was in the early 1990's I think that Congress, specifically House Appropriations, woke up to this loophole.  I know SCS people were jealous of ASCS ability to use CCC.  Did someone blow the whistle on ASCS?  Possibly. More likely the USDA IT office complained about ASCS/FSA bypassing them by using CCC. 

Meanwhile the different administrations have found the ability to tap CCC funds for various programs.  By now I've lost track of who has done what.  The most recent announcement is this, pilot projects for climate change.

Bad News on Inflation

 I saw Paul Krugman yesterday on Newshour admitting he'd been wrong about inflation.  Today we got another bad report.

I never wrote this, so take it with some salt, but I believe back in the day, when MMT (modern monetary theory) was the hot topic that I remembered back in the middle 60's when economists believed they had solved the problem of balancing growth and inflation.  They hadn't.

I'm tempted to say that it's a generational thing--humans become overcome by hubris, they push too far and meet trouble and learn to pull back, but as time goes on those with scars die off and the stage is set for another round of hubris.

Age-Appropriate Reading

 I read everything in the house, almost.  There were some volumes from my grandfather's library I passed on--lives of John Calvin and John Knox, Carlyle, and others. Mostly my parents allowed me to read anything. 

I do recall one discussion of whether I was old enough to handle a novelized version of the Donner Party. I don't remember the author--it was a poet/novelist written in the 1930's or so, not listed in the wikipedia article.  Not sure whether mom or dad was more hesitant, nor whether they came down with a decision.  I think it was unresolved, so I went ahead and read the book.  Not sure how old I was, young, pre-teen almost certainly.

This was sparked by the discussion of book-banning, particularly Bob Somerby's defense as in this post.

While I've some sympathy for his viewpoint, in my ideal world we'd trust kids, librarians, and teachers to do the right thing.  There's a chance, a small chance, that the wrong person reading the wrong text too early in their life may be adversely affected.  But the chances are small and the adverse effect small as well. 

All of the above discussion relates to voluntary reading, but I think the same logic argues against against mandatory reading and for the ability of kids and parents to opt out of one reading and into another. 

Amazon Base Salary Twice That of Congress

The way I understand this, is that $350,000 is the top salary Amazon can offer to new hires.  That's twice the salary for a member of Congress.

 

Self-Driving Cars

Sunday in the print editions: 

The Post had an essay by Mr. Zipper on self-driving cars, arguing they won't save lives (at least not 94 percent of current fatalities) and won't be good for the environment.

The Times has an opinion piece by Mr. Manjoo praising the Cadillac Escalade, including its self-driving package.

Both writers seem to agree that by making driving less onerous self-driving cars will encourage more driving, more time spent in cars, and therefore hurt the environment.

I'm still looking forward to more advances, though not ready to spring for an Escalade.  But my need and interest in driving seems to be waning, particularly in the context of the pandemic. 

Expropriation/Appropriation of Culture/Ideas

 Reading Johnson's book "The Broken Heart of America"--early on (page 26) he refers to the expropriation of Indian knowledge by the Lewis/Clark expedition.   Somehow it struck me wrong.  Checking the definitions of "expropriation" and "appropriation" it seems their meaning has been concerning property or assets.  

Johnson applies it to intellectual knowledge and intangible assets. To an economist I think the distinction rests on what is "excludable", which intellectual property isn't as a rule. IP is shareable.  It's appropriate to refer to the expropriation of land or the appropriation of personal property, but to my mind not appropriate to expropriation of IP or appropriation of culture. 

That leaves a question of what label to use instead of cultural appropriation--imitation or emulation or copying, perhaps adding an adjective like "superficial". 

A note from a biography of Josiah Wedgwood I'm reading--there's a quotation from an eminent writer in the 1760's pontificating that the classical past (which was being revealed by excavating Pompeii and the tours of Europe by young English men) should be considered the common patrimony of all, so emulation and imitation was fine.

Douthat in the Times

 Ross Douthat had an op-ed which interested me. He argued both conservatives and liberals have divisions, basically along two dimensions: trust in people and trust in expertise.  

Conservatives have over their history distrusted democracy, the mob. That continues today in attempts to limit voting. What's newish is conservative dislike of experts, of science.  Education used to be a conservative force but now both science and education are associated with change.

Liberals have a history of expanding the right to vote, which continues. But since the Progressive era they've developed a belief in educated elites, particularly science and social science.

The tensions on both sides make for instability. 

(The above is what I took from the essay without going back to doublecheck my summary.)

Douthat's analysis works for me as a liberal. I don't agree with some liberal positions, but I maintain my faith in science.

Budget -Wise We're Better Off?

 Congressional Budget Office does estimates of the effects of laws and proposed laws on the economy. Such estimates get media play.  What doesn't get media play is corrections:

In its March 2020 projections for fiscal year 2021, CBO underestimated revenues by 15 percent and overestimated outlays by 4 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit in 2021 was more than the actual amount by 3.9 percent of GDP.

AFIDA Holes

 This points to possible problems in how FSA enforces the AFIDA legislation. I once was responsible for that.  I hoped someday to integrate AFIDA reports into the general system for updating land ownership once we got a common geospatial database with SCS.  

I retired before that happened.  It sounds as if it hasn't happened since.  Just another silo.

Farm Efficiency--Big Versus Small

 This post says big farms are more efficient when capital is important; small farms when labor is more important.

It makes intuitive sense: if you're doing small plots with hand tools, the expertise and attention of the tool wielder is important.  If you're doing thousands of acress with equipment worth hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, the ability of the tractor driver is less important than getting the most use out of the equipment. 

Views of USDA--From Outside and Inside

This report says the federal government doesn't get good marks for its services.  But USDA is one of the highest ranking departments.  Meanwhile I remember seeing the results of a survey of employee satisfaction within different agencies--IIRC USDA scored near the bottom.

Why? I'd suggest part of the answer might be this: farmers served by FSA seem usually to have close relationships with their local office--that was my impression early on in the 1970s and it seems to be continuing now, judging by the Facebook FSA group.  But the local employees seem often to be unhappy with the national office; again I think it was true in the 70s and remains so now. (More accurately I think the employees are ambivalent, so they might easily voice discontent on a survey while being more balanced in a face-to-face. 

Granted FSA is only a small part of USDA but the dynamic might well work for most of the agencies.  My guess anyway. 

Is the Midwest Real?

 I've seen a few polls online trying to determine which states people would include in  the "Midwest".  There's no unanimity, just a core of states almost everyone would include (those beginning with "I") plus others--is Ohio in, how about western PA? Is Nebraska in or out, etc.?

It struck me this morning that the term "Midwest" has a similar relationship to the geography and society found in that general area as the term "race" has to the people who might be included in a specific "race". 

This is all in the context of discussions of whether "race" is "real"--many on the left would say race isn't real. I think it's real in some sense, but once you start defining it you find the concept fuzzy and sometimes evanescent.

What Is "Food Waste"?

 I'm a bit skeptical of the commonly used statistic that we waste x percent of the food we grow/produce (where x usually is 30 or more).

I'm not sure of the units of measurement--is it calories, volume, weight? It makes a difference.

And what is counted--if considering volume or weight, do you include the skins of bananas or the rinds of citrus?

And what is "waste"? Is corn grown for ethanol wasted?  Are animal parts used for pet food wasted?  

Vaccinations

 Until I read this twitter thread I wasn't aware we now had this many vaccinations for the early years. I wonder how many other shots come up later in life?

 

I post this regularly, and many express surprise.

This is the current childhood immunization schedule. Many childhood vaccines are three+ doses, sometimes a booster.

This is one reason why, unlike earlier centuries, we don't have cemeteries full of children. We've forgotten. pic.twitter.com/H01WqNg7uj

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) January 27, 2022

Productivity Gains in Genealogy

 My cousin and I were remembering the old days of genealogic research.  I never did any before the internet, but my sister devoted much of a year in 1978 or so to researching, particularly my paternal grandmother's ancestry--the Rippeys.  My cousin started seriously in the late 1980's.  

If you could measure the productivity of research you'd probably count facts--names, relationship, and dates.  In the days of visiting archives and viewing microfilm you might spend days to establish the bare facts for one ancestor.  Now in the days of the internet, of digitized records, and of genealogical databases like Ancestry.com it's possible to trace the ancestry of one person going back to 1850 or before over a weekend, which might include 32 people with lots of details.. 

The increase in productivity is amazing. 

The downside is this: because a genealogy once researched is more likely than not to be valid for recent centuries, there's a diminishing field to explore--at least for white Europeans.  Means new researchers won't know the satisfactions experienced by their elders. 

Trump Fades Away?

 FiveThirtyEight has a discussion on whether Trump is losing strength.

Although I'd like to see him run in 2024 because I think he'd be beatable (a poll today shows him being beaten by Biden by 10 points), I don't think Dems will be that lucky.

Why: he's not developing any platform of ideas, or particularly responding to change. What seems to get him going is his grievances over 2020 which is starting to get old.  If it feels dated now, think what it will feel like in 2 more years. 

Labor Shortage?--Open the Borders

 This post at Econofact notes the drop in immigration, and relates it to our current economy:

Due to increased restrictions on immigration and travel, which began with the COVID-19 pandemic in the early months of 2020, the net inflow of immigrants into the United States has essentially halted for almost 2 years. By the end of 2021 there were about 2 million fewer working-age immigrants living in the United States than there would have been if the pre-2020 immigration trend had continued unchanged. Of these lost immigrants, about one million would have been college educated. The data on labor shortages across industries suggest that this dramatic drop in foreign labor supply growth is likely a contributor to the current job shortages and could slow down employment recovery and growth as the economy picks up speed.

Moving to Subscriptions: Two Class Society

 There seems to be a lot of things moving to subscriptions--free broadcast service is losing out to them. That's true in the blogging universe as well as the entertainment world.

Seems to me that's going to have the effect of widening the gap between classes--those of us who can afford to will subscribe, those who can't will lose out. 

Biden Bypassing Paperwork Reduction Act?

 I blogged a couple days ago about the website to request 4 free covid tests per household.  Vox has a piece related to it concerning "administrative burden"--which is bad. 

Using that term made me think: shouldn't there have been an OMB clearance number attached to the website for the necessary approval under the Paperwork Reduction Act?  After all it's getting information from 10 or more people?

I think my question points to the fact that Congress should revise and update the Act.

Trust

 Nice line from a New Yorker article on AI fighters: 

“There’s a saying in the military,” Peter Hancock, a psychology professor at the University of Central Florida who studies the effect of trust on technology adoption, told me. “Trust is gained in teaspoons and lost in buckets.” 

The fighter pilot has to trust the AI software flying the plane.

I think the dynamic might apply in other areas.  Perhaps in society and government--lots of evidence that trust in various institutions and organizations has declined over the years. Or trust in President Biden has declined in the first year--one big reason is the withdrawal from Afghanistan.  

Though perhaps it's more a question of what we pay attention to: bad events get more attention than good.