Saturday, February 12, 2022

How Serious Would Ukraine Be

 David Brooks on the Newshour has a rosy picture of post-1945 European history.  He said last night on the Newshour that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be most serious military action since 1945.  

I don't buy it.  Both Russia and the US know they will try to avoid war.  The two nations have learned over the 76 years since WWII they can compete and conflict without going to armed conflict. 

We and the Soviet Union/Russia didn't know that with Berlin in 1948, Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968. We didn't know we could avoid conflict, and we believed that conflict would lead to nuclear war.

Ukraine is serious because of Murphy's law and the likelihood of unforeseen events. But I think we've seen worse, though that may just reflect my advancing age.

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