Another Dairy Farmer Goes Out

In central New York. Their numbers keep dwindling.

The Foodies Case Against Dairy

Some foodies have a problem with the dairy industry, but at least they don't lie about aborted dairy calves.

I do question this statement: "The average milking cow is about four when she’s considered “spent” in industry terms."  Amazingly enough a quick Google doesn't reveal an authoritative answer. Nor do I trust wikipedia on this.  I think this piece accurately reflects the dairyperson's thoughts, particularly the smaller one who is growing her own replacements.  In other words, the answer to the question "when does the dairy cow go to slaughter" is: "it all depends".

Unfair Comparison: 1940's Dairy (Organic) Versus Now?

From Farm Policy, quoting a release supporting production agriculture as environmentally friendly:

The update also pointed out that, “Dr. Jude Capper of Cornell University reported last year that more milk from higher-yielding cows that are fed more grain and less grass have helped reduce the carbon footprint of the U.S. dairy industry by 43% since 1944.
“‘Interestingly, many of the characteristics of 1940s dairy production — including low milk yields, pasture-based management and no antibiotics, inorganic fertilizers or chemical pesticides — are similar to those of modern organic dairy systems,’ Capper noted.”

I'm not sure that's a particularly fair comparison.  I'm reacting because I was brought up on a 1940's dairy farm.  We did use penicillin for mastitis, however. If I remember our production was about 11,000 pounds per cow, which was quite a bit above average.  Today I think the average cow is much above that (more like 20,000 pounds).  I suspect most of that increase is breeding, not feeding. If that's true, the comparison doesn't work, because there's nothing to prevent organic dairies from having the best-bred cows.

Why Farmers Want Farm Programs

Given the structure of markets, prices can vary very widely.  Few other industries see a 50 percent drop in income in 3 years, as did dairy in PA.

Organic Milk

Had to buy milk today so I checked the coolers.  My Safeway has 7 coolers devoted to milk of various kinds (whole, reduced fat, organic, soy, etc. etc.).  Of the 7, 2 were organic, a proportion which surprised me a bit.  The Safeway doesn't serve the richest clientele in the richest county in the country; lots of immigrants live in the area, though many of those are doing well.  But 30 percent organic is pretty good market penetration.

And, although the taste tests in this Grist post were a bit inconclusive, supermarket organic milk came out pretty well.

Equal Time for Cows--Predicting Their Behavior

Grew up on a dairy/poultry farm.  I've already posted on hens today, so I thought I'd throw in this piece from MIT on a model to predict cows' behavior: specifically whether to stand or lie down.

I'm a little skeptical of Bostonians talking about cows, they're probably more familiar with shoes.  But I can't controvert anything said in the post.

Good News for Dairy, at Least in China

From CAP Health Check

A couple years ago, while in Taiwan, I was amazed at the impressive increase in the demand of dairy products. At the time the existing statistics revealed that the Taiwanese per-capita consumption of dairy products was something like 50 times the figure for mainland China.

I thought Asians tended to be lactose-intolerant, but apparently that's not true, or at least it doesn't prevent a big increase in dairy consumption when standards of living rise.  

Dutch Dairymen and the Move to the US

  The Wall Street Journal has an article on the process by which Dutch dairymen have moved to the US and the problems some have faced. (Sounds like a combination of the boom, over enthusiasm, and some hype from an early mover, not that the farmers described represent all Dutch dairymen who've moved.

Hat tip: Farm Policy

A Return to Supply Management

Actually not a return for dairy, because dairy has never had a mandatory supply management program, but a return for agriculture generally, because tobacco and peanuts did have such programs. There seems to be some support for instituting one, based on this Agweb post:

Maddox supports the Holstein association’s proposed supply management plan, known as the Dairy Price Stabilization Program. The plan calls for a national, mandatory program that sets a base for milk production and assesses producers a fee if they exceed it.

I don't recall, but I think other countries have had such plans.  And it might be bureaucratically possible.  The key to supply management is to have complete reports of product flow from the farm to the next step, such as the tobacco warehouse. Is it likely?  It would need legislation. And my gut answer is: "no", but we'll see.

The Greater Value of Females

From an Extension post on the economics of sexed semen:

"Where bull calves may be worth only $50, heifer calves may be worth $450"

Dairy Program Faces Revision

The Dairy Talk on Agweb Blogs includes a post covering possible changes in the dairy program, ideas of the head of the National Milk Producers Federation. Some points:

• going to an insurance program covering--return over feed cost.
• current price supports effectively put a floor under world-wide dairy prices. 
• the voluntary reduction program under Cooperatives Working Together needs help--too many free riders.

There's a bunch of comments.  Mine is similar problems were faced in the programs for grains and cotton. People thought other countries were free riding on our efforts to adjust production.  And long ago, in the days of the Hoover administration, efforts to talk farmers into reducing production without government payments or coercion fell flat on their face.

First He Killed His 51 Cows

And then himself.

See the story in today's NYTimes. Peter Applebone is fairly restrained in his piece on the suicide of a 59-year old dairyman north of New York City. The article says 51 cows is about the limit for a single person.  My uncle ran a similarly sized dairy by himself, at least until his barn burned and he had a heart attack. That tells me there's not been much productivity improvements over the last 60 years, except of course the cows these days probably produce 2-3 times the volume of milk.  But milking 51 cows, minus those dry, twice a day, every day of the year is an intimidating prospect.  It scared the hell out of me.  And at 59, and alone.  (Dairy isn't the most social occupation.)

I assume he raised his cows from calves and he knew them, knew their personalities.  That hurts. [Paragraph revised to clarify.]

Dairy in the Cold

Via NAL, here's a description of running a dairy farm in cold weather (brings back memories).  I was surprised a bit--the farm milks 700 cows, and has 20 employees, for a ratio of 1 per 35 cows.  That's roughly the ratio I remember from my youth (my uncle had more and did most of the work himself, until his heart attack). I would have expected a bit more improvement in productivity.

Why Fruit Farmers Have It Easier Than Animal Farmers

Harvard economics professor Greg Mankiw posts on apple producers who find a bumper harvest means prices go low, so low it's not economic to harvest fruit for juice.  He sees it as a textbook case of producers cutting back production.

I guess, but I'd point out, as I tried in the title, that animal farmers are in a different situation.  Yes, you can cut back production very marginally--you dry up cows a little earlier, feed your animals a little less.  But, given my parents stories of dairymen's strikes in the 1930 where producers had to dump milk, I'm sensitive to the it. An apple grower, in the fall, is facing the picking expense, which I'd guess is a significant portion of the total costs of the crop.  If she can't sell the produce to the juice people for more than the cost of picking, it's a no brain decision.  The situation facing a pork producer or a dairyman is more complicated--each day your animals live is another day of feed costs (plus labor, but here feed is probably the big item). So it's not a black and white calculation, it's a guess of what the future holds--lower feed prices, higher pork prices, higher milk prices, whatever.

NOTE:  I'll be traveling tomorrow through Friday so blogging is likely to be light.

When the Free Market Meets Romantic Ideology

As a liberal I may over-estimate the strength of free market capitalism in conquering beliefs, but this excerpt from an Agweb report on an ERS analysis of organic dairy doesn't make me change my mind:

Most organic milk operations are small, with 45% milking fewer than 50 cows, and 87% fewer than 100, the study says. But the largest organic dairies, those with more than 200 cows, account for more than a third of organic milk production and are far more likely to generate returns above their capital and labor costs. That suggests that organic milk production will migrate toward larger operations, the authors say.

A Problem with Government--Speed

Or the lack thereof.  Senate Ag has a hearing. Extension reports milk prices are recovering and the recovery will continue.

Irish Scottish Dairy Farming

For those interested in dairy, here's a report of a visit by Ulster dairymen to Scottish dairy farms.

BTW, I would be curious whether the hired hands were Brit natives or immigrants (as seems to be the case in the US).  I'm also struck by the emphasis on butterfat levels--I haven't noticed that in the US although back in the day it was important (got paid a bonus for levels above 3.5 if I remember.)  There's a reference to the higher milk prices in Scotland than Ulster--wonder how they manage that.

Females Are Bigger, Dairy Industry Suffers

We can blame females for adding to the ills of dairy farmers. Turns out because the X chromosone weighs more than the Y, bull sperm can be fairly reliably separated into male and female. So, inseminate your cows with sperm with the X chromosone, you'll very likely have female calves.  And when the calf matures and is bred, you'll have another milk producer, which is just what dairy farmers need in an era of over-production and low prices.

The NYTimes article (click on title) says the sperm-weighing process became available in 2006, so the impact is just hitting.

(I note one of the dairymen quoted in the piece sounds Dutch--the Dutch have been migrating to the US for our cheaper land.)

Dairy Supply Management Proposal

Sometimes when agricultural surpluses mount, people come up with supply management schemes. That's happening with dairy (which already has a voluntary dairy herd buyout program going), via Agweb:

"The Initiative would have three functions:

• It would set national production levels consistent with national usage
• Each cooperative would be assigned a production base level consistent with their share of national production
• CMI would set target prices at levels that would enable their members to profitably produce milk".

I'm a bit sceptical of these ideas--people tried them before the New deal and the "free rider" problem was too big. But it might work for dairy, at least for a while, if coops can control their members.

Dairy Problems, Even in UK

The plight of US dairy farmers has received attention. Here's a post from Britain about similar problems there. (They have co-ops too.)