Let's say the reopening of the US goes okay, some glitches, but on the whole the level of deaths keeps declining down to a low level, so Covid-19 is just the fourth or fifth most common cause of death.
And suppose that's low enough that businesses and schools reopen during the summer without major setbacks.
So now it's October 1 and things have been going pretty well. And most important they have been going pretty well since May 15.
And the stories in the media are no longer the gloom of uncertainty but the resilience of the country.
And despite the impact on the economy, our "animal spirits" have revived and the majority of the country thinks things are improving, and we're on the right track.
What then will be the outlook for Trump's reelection?
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