As of Memorial Day, I'd put the odds this way:
- 10 percent chance Trump wins a majority of the 2-person popular vote and wins back the House.
- 30 percent chance Trump wins a majority of the electoral vote and keeps the Senate
- 10 percent chance neither candidate wins with 48 hours of election day, including possibility it goes to the House
- 30 percent chance Biden wins a majority of votes, both popular and electoral but fails to win the Senate.
- 10 percent chance Biden wins a comfortable majority, and squeaks a Senate majority
- 10 percent chance Biden wins a landslide, taking House and firm Senate majority
Bottom line, I think the Dems have more upside than the Reps but it's currently a tossup.
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