Friday, August 31, 2012

House Republicans as a Force for Moderation

Okay, it's a surprising title, but here's my theory:
  • Republicans maintain their control of the House in November but narrowly--the Rep caucus does not move further to the right by adding many more conservative members
  • House Republicans face the prospect of elections in 2014--if Romney wins they're incumbents and are more likely to lose in offyear elections. 
  • 2nd term tea party members who won in the Republican wave of 2010 will be concerned about surviving a Democratic wave in 2014.  Some of them will have gone Washington, and will see reason in compromise and "getting something done".
  • so the logic of their situation is going to be pulling them towards the center, as opposed to the last 2 years when they were pulling away from the center.

No comments: