Government IT

 This Politico opinion piece is enthusiastic about the government site for requesting covid tests. I'd be a bit more reserved--it's fast, simple, and works, but the underlying policy it's implementing is simple.  Good IT design works if the policy is good.

The Imperfect Universe

 If we say that perfection equals uniformity, then the universe was imperfect from the beginning.  See this Chris Blattman post:

https://chrisblattman.com/2022/01/20/let-there-be-light/

Thoughts on Inflation--Money as Grease

 Having lived through the inflation of the 1970s and 80s, I've been more skeptical of the promises last year that any inflation would be only temporary.  

While unions are less important now than then, and they were often blamed for inflation, we also have more things indexed for inflation now (like Social Security).

But my own theory about inflation is this:

Before the pandemic the economy was operating smoothly following its usual routines.  Because of the pandemic lots of routines were disrupted.  Whenever there's change or disruption, the resulting friction gets handled by grease, grease known as money.  Don't have enough workers, give bonuses and hike salaries.  Don't trust going to restaurants, rely on delivery and increase the tips.  Etc. Etc. 

That means to me the inflation won't be temporary but will last until we establish new routines, which will take a while.

Are Congratulations Premature--Ordering Tests

 The White House's site for ordering covid tests is up, a day before promised.

Given the problems with the Obamacare website, I'm glad to see it seems, so far, to be going okay (the requirements were simpler by a lot, but the media likely won't focus on it--just success or failure).

Vietnam Photo--Tugboat

Lots of traffic on the river. 
 

What Constitutes "Race"?

 A question raised by recent reading--what constitutes "race"?   Disregarding the issue of whether or not "race" is real, it seems to me our understanding is historical, lacking background.  Specifically:

• African race is really a concept derived from past experience with slaves.  Although in the early years of slavery I understand that enslavers knew and understood difference in the people they imported from different parts/nations of Africa, as time went on those distinctions faded away into one "African" race.
• Today we easily use "Asian American" as equivalent to a "race".  In part that may be a carryover of history: whites treating the "Orient" as one big confusing place with "Orientals" as the race.  
• Today we have the information and the ability to distinguish between Nigerians and Gambians, and between Bhutanese, Nepalese, and Chinese. But having the ability doesn't mean we use that knowledge in our discussions.  

The Problems of Change: No Plastic Grocery Bags

 Fairfax county has implemented a ban on plastic grocery bags, or maybe it's plastic bags from shops?   Anyway, we've invested in a nylon bag for me to use when I'm buying a few items, often during a walk, and a set of 3 foldable bags with cloth sides for the weekly Friday shopping.

But this change which seems so simple turns out to be a bit more complicated.  When I'm shopping, I use the self-checkout station.  It's designed so you identify/weigh each item you're buying, then place it into the plastic shopping bag above the scale.  That works well.  But when I try to replace the plastic bag with my nylon bag, the system detects the weight of the nylon bag and commands me to remove it. So instead of placing the id'ed items directly into the bag, it becomes two steps--one onto the scale, then after I've paid the bill, moving the items from the scale to the nylon bag. 

Using the foldable bags reveals a separate problem--they're designed to fit within the shopping cart, which is fine, but that means they're just a bit too big to fit onto the stand where the checker has her plastic shopping bags, meaning it's awkward for the checker to fill the bags.

My poin is this is symptomatic of many changes--because things are designed as a system, or they evolve into a system (which I think is the case with groceries) of interrelated parts. A change in one part of a system will require changes in other parts. 

Self-Driving Tractors and Equity

 Modern Farmer has a piece on John Deere's self-driving tractor, which really sounds like a package of software and sensors which can be added onto different tractors. Civil Eats has a longer piece on how the rising prices of farm land make it hard for beginning farmers, especially  those of color, to set up an operation.

The two factors work together with others to make a vicious cycle. The higher the cost of entry by buying land and equipment the greater the premium for going big.

The First Inaugural Address

 I ran across a reference to Washington's first inaugural address which roused my curiosity--specifically a reference to the prominent position he gave to what we call today the "Bill of Rights".

So I looked it up.  It's interesting. I don't find there what I thought was indicated by the reference.  There's a lot more attention given to God, his past guidance and hopes for future of "experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people".  But there are no specific recommendations for any of the Bill of Rights.  He does spend one paragraph in generalities--he's for "fortifying rights" while "promoting harmony", but that's as specific as he gets about any aspect of the new government.

Oh, and he won't take a salary or personal emolument.  

Vietnam Photos--Street Scene

 

Let's Index Congressional Salaries

 We've indexed a number of parameters in government.  One perennial problem is the salary of our representatives in Congress.  The "out" party can demagogue the issue against those in power who raised the salary, so salaries don't get raised.  And Congressional salaries tend to limit all other federal salaries (exceptions for special skills).

I've a very simple suggestion to eliminate the problem:  we index the Congressional salaries.  My own preference would be to pay them 10 percent of the salary of the highest paid government official in their state.  In most cases this will be the coach of the college football team.  

Encouraging Cover Crops

 Secretary Vilsack is trying to encourage the use of cover crops by providing incentive payments.

In 1969 I was in North Carolina trying to get a little exposure to state and county operations.  I remember the CED in one county took me on a visit to a sawmill operation.  IIRC they were shaving the logs to create the slices of wood used in making baskets when we visited.  While there he signed up a worker for an Agricultural Conservation Program practice for cover crops on his land. I think he knew the worker, his sawmill job, and his farming operation (perhaps tobacco?) well enough to make that trip.

In the 1970's the Nixon/Butz regime targeted the program using the argument that good farmers would use good farming practices which were profitable; the corollary is that a practice which isn't profitable isn't good and ignoring the issue of differing time periods.

[updated with link]

A Civil War? No

 A rash of stories about the decline of our democracy and the possibility of a civil war.  See this in the New Yorker.

I'm not worried.  We've seen more risky circumstances in the past.  We forget the level of violence associated with labor unionization and the racism of the last century. We should be able to remember the divisions and violence of the late 60's and 70's, but we don't.

Our current polarization is different than in the past, but I don't think it's that likely to lead to wide-spread violence.  

If I'm to make a prediction, I'd say the level of racial/political motivated violence over the next 10 years won't rise above the level of past violence--i.e., homicides won't reach record levels. 

Woody Holton: Liberty Is Sweet

Woodie Holton is a historian who has been active in defending the 1619 Project, which led me to read his new book: Liberty Is Sweet,  If I don't write further on it (it's good), I want to note this nice quote from Ben Franklin, which the Democrats could use:

All Property indeed, except the Savage’s temporary Cabin, his Bow, his Matchcoat, and other little Acquisitions absolutely necessary for his Subsistence, seems to me to be the Creature of public Convention. Hence the Public has the Right of Regulating Descents & all other Conveyances of Property, and even of limiting the Quantity & the Uses of it. All the Property that is necessary to a Man for the Conservation of the Individual & the Propagation of the Species, is his natural Right which none can justly deprive him of: But all Property superfluous to such purposes is the Property of the Publick, who by their Laws have created it, and who may therefore by other Laws dispose of it, whenever the Welfare of the Publick shall demand such Disposition. He that does not like civil Society on these Terms, let him retire & live among Savages.— He can have no right to the Benefits of Society who will not pay his Club towards the Support of it.

From Benjamin Franklin to Robert Morris, 25 December 1783 

[Updated-corrected the author's name.  See this Hogeland post on the related issue.'

Things Change--Biden and Demographics

 

This is the president signing an executive order on customer service. Just a semi-routine ceremony, but I thought the demographics of the attendees were interesting, especially in contrast with the prior administration.

Thanks to Republicans

 Though I may never have voted for a Republican, I think we should acknowledge the principled Republicans who did the right thing--VP Pence for resisting the former guy's pressure and his mob; the representatives and senators who voted to accept the state results on Jan 6; and most of all the mostly Republican administrators of elections in WI, PA, GA, NV and AZ who affirmed the counts.

Vietnam Photos--Street Scene

 This would be another photo from somewhere in Saigon.

Suicides and War

This fact was noted in one of the newspapers but I found this at the USO site. 

In 2021, research found that 30,177 active duty personnel and veterans who served in the military after 9/11 have died by suicide - compared to the 7,057 service members killed in combat in those same 20 years. That is, military suicide rates are four times higher than deaths that occurred during military operations.

Hand Milking

 A while back I ran across a reference to "hand milking", which turned out to what dad would have called "machine milking".  Now the distinction is whether it's a robot putting the teat cups onto the cows or whether it's a human.

I was reminded of this by a Newshour piece on the advance of robots in dairying. 

Inflation Strikes Pizza

 My wife and I order the occasional pizza from Dominos.  For years our usual order was about $17 plus tip.  These days it's up to $31.  Part of that is the inclusion of a delivery charge, part is a more generous tip.  I suspect not only are the ingredients a bit more costly, but salaries for the help are up and management has been scared by the ups and downs of operating through the pandemic, thus becoming more cautious.  And the reality is that demand likely has stayed strong because of the pandemic. 

Rules of the Road in Space

 We've seen reports that the International Space Station has had to maneuver to reduce the chances of being hit by debris.  That's pretty straightforward--ISS can maneuver, the debris can't.  

What happens if ISS  and one of Elon Musk's satellites are on a collision course, or any set of two active satellites, each of which can maneuver?  (My guess is that such a collision is less likely than the debris/satellite scenario, but it must be possible.) If both maneuver there's the possibility they will increase the likelihood of a collision. On the sea, or on the road we have well-established conventions to minimize collisions. But in space? 

The Value of Consistency: Civilian Lawsuits

 Reading "Public Citizens: The Attack on Big Government and the Remaking of American Liberalism". 

I may write more about it, but I want to note that "civilian lawsuits" were proposed by Ralph Nader and his followers to enforce stronger standards for clean air and water.

Can we see this delegation of authority to sue as paving the way for the Texas SB 8 legislation on abortion?  Is there a difference in them? 

Social Security Administration and FSA

Washington Post yesterday had an article on the difficulties caused by SSA's switch to remote service.  The agency has over 1200 field offices. 

I'd love to see a comparison of SSA and FSA operations during the pandemic.  FSA would, I think, come out better, mostly because farmers have a history of interacting with their local office because farm programs are annual while usually people only need SSA once.  That may be oversimplification, but that's my guess.

But I'd also expect other differences, partly due to the county committee structure, partly the clientele, partly different histories and norms. 

SSA does have unions, as opposed to the NASCOE and farm loan groups.  They also have at least one Facebook group, as with FSA restricted to active and retired employees.

Covid and William Goodman

 William Goodman said: "in Hollywood no body knows anything" about what makes for a hit movie.

One lesson from covid is the limitations of knowledge, of expertise.  Over 2 years we've seen a lot of predictions, some were accurate within their frame, some were correct at the general level (i.e., the virus would mutate and the mutations would have different characteristics), but all had trouble tracking the changes over time.  

Another lesson is how vulnerable we the public are to misinformation. 

Merry Christmas

 And happy holidays.

GAO on USDA and MFP

 GAO questions USDA's approaches to calculating MFP benefits.  Too long, didn't read. (i.e., too complicated for an old man.)

Most Important Election: 1952?

 Here's a discussion of which election since 1945 has been the most important. Sadly, the experts omit any discussion of my favorite: 1952.  (They focus on 2020, 2016, 1964, etc.)

Why 1952? What was critical was the Republican nomination: Robert Taft versus Dwight Eisenhower.  Either could win, as the country was tired of the New Deal at home and of the Korean War abroad. Taft was the more conservative, with an isolationist history from before December 7, 1941. Ike was the more internationalist and the more supportive of NATO. 

On paper, if Taft had won the nomination and the presidency the course of the Cold War looks very different than what happened.  

I say "on paper" because Taft died in 1953 and we don't know who he would have chosen as vice president.  It might have been someone from the Eisenhower wing of the party in an attempt to present a unified front against the Democrats.  Or it might not.

Incompetence

 Bob Somerby notes that the texts Donald Trump Jr. sent to Meadows (and others) show that Trump's associates didn't expect a takeover of the Capitol.  Elsewhere Eric Trump said in an interview that the Trump campaign was too incompetent, too inexperienced to collude with Russians, which only confirms a Dana Milbank column of months ago. 

I think that's true.  Everything I've read about the former guy and his White House operation suggests he and they really didn't know what they were doing. So my assessment of Jan 6 is that it was throwing a bunch of darts at the wall, hoping that one of them would find a bulls-eye. 

Vertical Farming

So-called "vertical farming" is hot. I apply the adjective because I think the category is loose enough to apply to all envirnonments where controls are tight: maybe humans replace sunlight with Leds, replace the soil with a nutrient solution, ensure the temperature stays within optimum ranges, etc., regardless of whether there are two or more layers/stories worth of plants.   

The advantages are growing close to the market, tight control over diseases and pests, high degree of automation, more uniform quality of produce, etc.  The two big questions are the big capital investment required to start up and the continuing cost of inputs: mostly electricity for lighting and cooling and labor, especially for automation--these are questions because I don't think there's any installations which have had a long enough life to prove profitability. Perhaps a third question is the range of produce which can be grown for a profit in the most advanced setups. (After all, we've had hothouse tomatoes on the market for years.

GAO"s Farmers.Gov Evaluation

 From a GAO report evaluating the overall Technology Modernization Fund operation:

The Farmers.Gov Portal project was originally intended to update and modernize the conservation financial assistance and payment operations at the Farm Services Agency and Natural Resources Conservation Service in order to improve the services through the portal. The scope of the project was updated in August 2020 after the agency determined that additional process re-engineering would be required prior to further development of the technology solution for common enrollment processes for the two agencies. While the project developed tools to help reduce manual data entry, and developed a proof of concept for the system, the project was closed out prior to implementation in May 2021.

I wonder whether the closing of the project was due to its not meeting expectations or perhaps because of "not invented here" thinking by the new administration? I don't remember what I initially thought of the project--probably somewhat skeptical (since I wasn't involved, :-) 

GAO includes this rationale:

Agriculture leadership determined that additional process re-engineering would be required prior to further development of the technology solution for common enrollment processes.

USDA had two other TMF initiatives which seem to be continuing, although perhaps with reductions in scope and/or expectations.  

GAO's report is critical of GSA's management of the TMF; it wasn't specifically directed at the agencies with projects which received funds. 

From Estonia's Leader

I like to think I'm reasonably liberal and reasonably current with most trends, except for popular culture.  But I did a double-take when I saw the photo with this post of Estonia's leader.

So young and so blonde.

The Vietnam Morass

I happened to try to check Jill Lepore's claim that hundreds of thousands marched on April 15, 1967 in New York City to protest the war--it seemed high to me. That got me into deep waters.  The NY Times seems to say that police estimated 100,000, or possibly 125,000, although they were told to prepare for 200,000 to 400,000. Elsewhere including wikipedia the "hundreds of thousands" phrase seems to be established wisdom.  Not sure anyone has tried to estimate it as carefully as we used to do with crowds at the various inaugurals.

Elsewhere there's the question of the number of draft dodgers--Wikipedia offers different vague estimates in different places, but this site has:

For its part, the U.S. government continued to prosecute draft evaders after the Vietnam War ended. A total of 209,517 men were formally accused of violating draft laws, while government officials estimate another 360,000 were never formally accused.

That sounds so specific it must be based on some official document; unfortunately they don't provide any sources. 

It's a reminder to me of how fragile is the base of "facts" for our received version of history.

Master of the Game

 Reading Martin Indyk's "Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger: the Art of Middle East Diplomacy.  Just got through the Yom Yippur War, the one where the US went to Defcon 3 while Nixon was melting down with the Saturday Night massacre. The one where Brezhnev was apparently addicted to drugs and drink.  

A year or two ago I read a new book on the coming of WWI tracing the network of misunderstandings and wrong assumptions which led to the war. That's what came to mind as I read--the Soviets, the Egyptians, the Israelis, the Syrians--all were flawed players in the game. 

I doubt there's much chance of improving the rationality of our leaders--they're human after all. 

(After finishing the book, which covers Kissinger's successful negotiations to calm the area, and take advantage of opportunities to stablize the situation, laying the groundwork for Carter's Camp David establishment of peace between Israel and Egypt.)

I came away with an appreciation of Kissinger's abilities and even more appreciation of Indyk's approach: he's clear on the aims and tactics of the various players and their misjudgments.  Anwar Sadat comes off well as a statesman, amazingly for someone who was pro-Hitler during WWII.  The other leaders seem capable--no villains, just quirky people.

History and SCOTUS

 It's unfair that Republican appointees have dominated the Supreme Court for the last 50 years or so.  Elsewhere I've blamed LBJ for this. 

Currently liberals argue that the court is too conservative.  That's true.  But it's also true that the court has not always been a moderating influence, keeping America on a middle way. Back in the days of the Warren court it was fairly consistently more liberal than the country. IIRC there weren't majorities in the country supporting decisions like Brown, Carr, MIranda.  

It's also worth remembering that people on the right were talking about "Impeach Warren".  So far the liberals today aren't talking about impeachment.

Concerns About Republican Changes to Voting Laws

 One of the things Republicans seem to be doing in several states is changing the law so that somebody can override the count of votes.  In a way they're fighting the last war: in the firm belief that Trump lost because of illegal/fraudulent votes, they're trying to make legal what Trump asked the officials in AZ, PA, GA, and WI to do.

This effort has a lot of Democrats very concerned.  It might be justified.  But I'm in a Pollyanna mood today, so let me outline why it might not be:

• I've not tracked them, but some of the law changes are, I think, occurring in red states, states the Republicans are apt to win in most elections.
• There's a big difference between Monday-morning quarterbacking and the beliefs you develop when you're part of the action. I'm relying on that idea here. In 2022 and 2024 the officials empowered by these changed laws will be active participants in the electoral process.  Hopefully we won't have a pandemic causing late changes to election procedures and laws, which was the big problem undermining Republican acceptance of results in 20S0.  So I'm hoping these officials will feel committed to the process and thus won't be looking and finding the false fraud which would justify their actions.

That's my prediction anyway.

Another Error by Harvard Professor?

 I'm not really picking on Prof. Lepore, not much anyhow. She writes really well. But as I've said before I do enjoy finding errors.  This time it's page 109 of her book "If Then: How the Simultanics Corproation Invented the Future".  She's writing about the dance among Arthur Schlesinger, Jr (another Harvard professor who wrote well), Adlai Stevenson, and JFKennedy in 1960.  Stevenson is vacillating as usual over whether to run for president, and JFK is trying to keep him out, with Schlesinger in the middle. 

In two separate paragraphs she describes meetings between Stevenson and JFK, one on May 21, one in "late May" which was arranged by Schlesinger.  I have to believe it was one meeting, but the way it's written it sounds like two. I suspect she tried to describe the meeting in separate drafts which didn't get cleanly merged. 

I've not finished the book, but am enjoying it, as I remember the maneuvering then, much more fascinating than today's politics.

MFP and CFAP Political Effects

The bottom line of a study trying to assess whether the MFP and CFAP payments resulted in more votes for Trump in 2020:

We find the MFP and CFAP programs generated 677,512 votes for Republican candidate Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election with an estimated cost-per-vote-gained of $66,124

I say it's the bottom line, but the next sentence says the added votes didn't swing any states; rural voters were already pro-Trump. 

Vietnam Photo--Houses

 

How Our View of People Changes

 Over my lifetime many things have changed:

• Eisenhower changed from a middling president to something more, worthy of a monument on the Mall.
• Grant changed from a president presiding over corruption to a protector of black civil rights.
• Sadat changed from a tinpot dictator and Nazi lover to someone who risked and lost his life for peace.
• Bob Dole changed from a partisan hatchet man in the 70s to a well regarded last remnant of the Greatest Generation and a very funny man.
• Ian Paisley went from pope hater to almost a statesman working with the IRA.

I could go on but I think examples show two things: 

1. some people change over their lifetime, both as they change and their environment changes
2. how people are evaluated depends very much on who the evaluators are and what their environment is.

Vietnam Photo-River Scene

 IIRC we went over a bridge or two and by a river on the route from Saigon to Long Binh. Always interesting. 

Bob Dole: Detail Oriented

 When I was hired at ASCS in 1968 I became familiar with the handbook (17-AS) which had the distribution schedules for all ASCS handbooks. There was a form listing all the ASCS offices: state offices, commodity offices, and aerial photo labs, with the quantity to be sent to each.  Some states wanted a skinny distribution, allowing 1 copy per county office and a few for the state; others would allow for multiple copies per county.  Occasionally we have to create a schedule for new printed material, since the same schedule might be used for some related form or pamphlet.  All of that got me familiar with the number of counties (actually county offices) in the states. 

In addition to the preformated schedule, for some handbooks there might be one or two additional offices which wanted a copy for some reason, perhaps OIG, FCIC, or AMS.  The only Congressional office down to receive any handbook was Bob Dole's office, which wanted 25-GR, the designation for the wheat and feed grain programs.   The dedication to detail of the Congressman, or more likely required by him of his policy person, impressed me. 

I hadn't heard of him before joining ASCS, but he was elected to the Senate the next year. 

Estonia and Aautomation

 I like Estonia because of its whole-hearted adopting of e-government, which apparently carries over to other aspects of life.  However it's not all peaches and cream--the embedded tweet links to a gif of the robots:

https://twitter.com/xgebi/status/1466802322600775686?s=20

The morning in the Estonian capital began with a traffic jam of... robot couriers! Because of the snowfall, they stalled and could not move. Innovation doesn't seem to work in winter... pic.twitter.com/z6KHaWRGSK

— Deleuze (@Kukicat7) December 2, 2021

2.9 Billion Not on Internet?

 This report from statistia says there are that many people who aren't on the internet.

Is anyone else stunned by the stat? I'm more astonished by the converse: that means a majority of humans are on the internet, 4.9 billion to be specific.

  

The Impatience of Youth (and Ideologues?)

 Within an hour I read Frank Bruni's newsleterr (subscribe here) commenting on criticism of scientists re: covid:

What an inevitability. Science doesn’t usually figure everything out all at once; it’s a steadily growing body of knowledge, and its application, especially in the face of new circumstances, can amount to an educated guess, imperfect but invaluable. In the case of Covid, there was no awful screw-up. There was, instead, astonishing speed: These vaccines, powerfully effective, were developed and distributed in record time.

 and a Kevin Drum tweet responding to a Ryan Cooper tweet along the same lines:

Because scientists have the odd notion that they should look for rigorous evidence. The public doesn't give a shit about that. https://t.co/ALAdQfNxwm

— Kevin Drum (@kdrum) December 2, 2021

I agree with both--there's a lot of impatience these days. After a long life (hopefully to be much longer) I've grown more tolerant of people (except the people who post erroneous things on the Internet) 

Vietnam Photo--Men of the 69th Signal

Here's Thorn, seen earlier eating a brownie, and Dave Williams, seen earlier with me getting ready for R&R. 

Unfortunately I flipped the slide when I scanned it, as you can tell when trying to read his name.

A group of us in the barracks.

 A picture of me outside the MARS (Military Amateur Radio System, which provided radio calls back to the world) site for which the 69th Signal men were providing electricity.  The line of vision is towards Bien Hoa airbase, site of a Vietcong attack on amunition dumps.  The sandbagged bunker behind me was significant in my memory. 

Vietnam Photo--Men of the 69th

 I believe he's eating from a Care package my mom sent.

Vietnam Photo-R&R

 

Dave Williams and I are going to Tokyo on R&R. I seem to have lost the photos from that.