Missed Opportunities for Indexing

 Over the years our society has indexed a number of things--Social Security is indexed to the consumer prices, ETF's are indexed to various indices, income tax rates are indexed to consumer prices, etc.  Some social programs are means-tested and indexed to income. 

An index has two advantages IMO: it allows for gradual changes and it establishes a linkage between social factors. The gradual change is important: big changes get more recognition than gradual ones.  And psychology tells us that people get upset by the perception of loss, an upset which isn't balanced by their appreciation of gains. "Graduating" has similar effects.

I think we, especially liberals, should take more advantage of indexing.  For example, in 1993 the Clinton administration backed off its energy tax because of opposition from rural Democrats, particularly senators, and saw an increase in the gas tax as a fallback.  But what we should have done is index the gas tax to inflation. The effect would have been roughly to double the value of the tax. 

Another example: Obamacare was passed with a mandate, a financial penalty for not enrolling. What would have happened if we had graduated the penalty, Lessening the initial pain might have enabled the mandate to be preserved, instead of repealed by a Republican Congress. 

Vietnam Photo-Cathedral

 

This was in Saigon; I'm assuming a Catholic cathedral. Ngo Dinh Diem, the president of South Vietnam after the 1954 settlement which ended France's colonial rule, was a Catholic.

We Were Wrong (Third World)

 Noah Smith writes about China's economic progress and its problems here.

His description of the progress China's made reminds me of how wrong/mistaken internationalist liberals were in the 50's and 60's. Back then it seems to me our focus was on the need for foreign aid to help the "Third World" to advance.  I'm thinking of people like Barbara Ward. For all that our hearts were in the right place, I think it's fair to say we never conceived of China's path out of severe poverty. 

Thank goodness we were wrong, because foreign aid, while important and helpful, never reached the levels we thought were necessary. 

USDA Is Last (in Vaccinations)

 That is reported by GovExec here: " The Veterans Affairs Department and Social Security Administration joined USDA in bringing up the bottom of the pack, with all three agencies holding vaccination rates under 88%." 

I suspect the three agencies share a feature--extensive field staffs located in red states.  I know from some posts on the Facebook page for the FSA employee group that whether or not to get the shots caused some angst.  FSA for one is culturally conservative. 

Vietnam Photo--Street Scene

I liked the conjunction of the traffic mostly of bicycles with the Esso station. This would have been in the outskirts of Saigon, IIRC.

Sounds Like Advantage to Females?

 Steve Kelman reports on research in Federal Computer Week--"soft skills" help team performance. To me it reads as if teams will work better if they have at least one stereotypical woman.

Vietnam Photo

 This was a building in downtown Saigon. We didn't often drive through the city. When I first arrived in Vietnam before I got the camera, when I was running a generator it was at the MAC-V headquarters, IIRC. 

Vietnam Photo

 

I don't know any background to this statue--who or what it memorialized. Given the location and the time, my interpretation is it honors Vietnamese soldiers who fought for the French or the Republic of Vietnam (i.e. South Vietnam).

Alcohol and Weed

 Politico has a post on Prohibition, stating the case for prohibition being a reasonable reform with supporters ranging from Washington to Lincoln.  The writer is a historian with a new book out.  My mother was death on alcohol; looking back I'm not sure why.  I'm thinking there was some element of experience there, possibly from neighbors, or within the family; I don't know, I never asked. 

I can buy some of the argument, certainly the part about alcohol being one of the Progressive reform causes. Comparing the brewers and distillers to the today's peddlers of oxycontin and fentanyl is good, as is pointing to the impact of firewater on Native Americans.

Meanwhile, there are reports of national Republicans supporting the legalization, or at least the decriminalization, of marijuana. That's amazing to me, but it seems that it's the wave of the future.

I can't come out with just one standard rule for alcohol and drugs which I think would work for all times and all societies. 

Vietnam Transport

 Many of the photos I shot were during trips between Long Binh and the company's HQ near Tan Son Nhut.  All were 35 mm slides; I forget the type of film but many didn't hold their color so I've tried to adjust using Google Photo tools.

An End to Fence-Building?

 Modern Farmer reports  on a "no fence" system for goats.  Unlike "no fence" systems for cats and dogs, no buried wire marking the boundary is needed, just GPS  and other sensors.

It seems as if the same technology would work for any mammal, which would mean an end to one spring routine--fixing fence, which involved replacing fence posts which had rotted, driving in fence posts which were still good but had been heaved up by the frost, replacing rusted out barbed wire, etc.  

Laws about fencing date back centuries.  Depending on the agriculture in the area sometimes it was the responsibility of the animal owner to fence his herd in, in other areas the responsibility of the crop grower to fence out free roaming animals. "No fence" tech would seem to be the responsibility of the animal owner. 

One blogger I follow is Foothill Agrarian who raises sheep in California. He and some of the organic farmers have a system where they move their grazing animals from one field to another, or paddock to another, which involves movable fences.  Invisible fences would ease that work. 

The Vaccinated Are Smarter?

 I'd answer "yes", if you're smart enough to get yourself vaccinated, you're smarter than your unvaccinated friend or relative.  And I'd point to this CDC study (via Lawyers, Guns and Money--Paul Campos) which shows a big difference in death rates between the two groups: vaccinated and unvaccinated.

The big thing about the study is the difference is based on death rates excluding Covid.  

Homicides, Car Accidents

 Homicides are up, fatal car accidents are up.  I suggest it's a combination of factors (that's always a safe suggestion):

• the pandemic, obviously.  We've built up a lot of frustration as we've had to adapt to change.
• Trump.  Leaders can set the tone.  In the former guy's case the tone he set was to act out your emotions, to be angry at situations you can't control, and to bully the people you can. (Wrote this yesterday, but see AOC making a similar point today--the tone set from the top can matter. 

  AOC links Gosar's video to a "nihilism" among Republicans holding that nothing Congress does really matters or is meaningful pic.twitter.com/zFYlFwI3f9

  — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 17, 2021)

• for homicides, there's likely been an impact on policing from the "defund police" etc. 

A New Day Dawning? Leahy

 Sen. Leahy has announced he won't run for reelection next year.  On the Newshour Lisa Lerer commented on the number of old farts who are in the Dem leadership of Congress, and their impending retirements.

There's likely a transition coming for Dems, certainly in the House, more probable in the Senate if the next two elections turn out awful for the Dems.  

Currently it seems as if the Reps are on a firm course: Trump the likely nominee in 2024, McCarthy as Speaker, but McConnell won't last past 2024 if Trump is elected. The Dems are less clear: will Biden run for election, if not can Harris get the nomination or will it be someone else. If there's primary fight for 2024 will the nominee be defeated by Trump, as Carter was defeated by having a divided party behind him. 

My guess would be that Pelosi leaves if Dems lose the House in 2022. 

Why We Fight the Last War

 I've written before about my Harshaw rule--we never get it right the first time. 

I just realized this morning that there's a logical corollary: we always fight the last war.  Why? It's what we know, and when we're in a crisis, a new situation with high stakes, we revert to what we know.   The Harshaw rule says we don't get it right the first time because we lack the understanding and the habits needed to deal with newness.  

(This was spurred by an article in the papers saying that we responded to the pandemic recession by doing what we did for the Great Recession.)

[Updated with link]

Afghanistan Refugees

 An article in the Post yesterday on the arrival of Afghan refugees in in American society, particularly in the DC area.  Some children are already enrolled in local schools.  There's a NOVA RAFT (Resettling Afghan Families Together) helping--they've a Facebook page and an Amazon wish list.

My sister was active for many years in the interfaith group which worked settling refugees in the Syracuse area.

Changes in the Blog--Vietnam

 Over the years this blog has changed some.  Without going back and reading early posts, I think I wrote extensively on FSA/USDA, a focus which has declined over the years.  I think I've always been cautious about offering opinions, but I've become more political over the last 5 years or so.  I've rarely discussed personal matters. 

I'm changing a bit--having started to review some of the photographs I accumulated over the years I think some might find them interesting, particularly those from Nam.

I may have mentioned I spent 11 months 11 days in Vietnam during 1966-67 as a generator operator assigned to the 69th Signal Battalion. Shortly after I arrived I bought a SLR Pentax and started taking some picture. My company HQ was at Tan son nhut (airport)  in Saigon, but by this time I was stationed at Long Binh, a logistics base some 12 miles northeast of Saigon. My group ran generators for a communications center, which was located a bit outside the base's perimeter (I think; ignorance of the bigger picture was standard in the Army then).

This was late in my tour, as the communication center has now been enclosed in a building.  I'm reading (not sure who snapped the photo) by one of the two generators.  

More on Unemployment Insurance Systems

 I noted the use of COBOL in state unemployment insurance systems. 

This GovExec article describes what the Biden administration is doing.  I wish them luck, and persistence.

The Extended Mind

 The Extended Mind is an ambitious book, one which tries to link together a lot of science and social science research into many subjects.  Part of the discussion is the way in which our body affects our mind and brain; if we sense, gesture, or move it impacts the working of our brains in specific areas and ways. Space also impacts: are we in natural surroundings or built ones, can we use space to extend our memory (the "memory palace" method).  Finally how do groups (experts, peers, diverse groups) affect us.  The thrust of the discussion is how we can use the information/research to improve our thinking and effectiveness.

I found myself skimming. One of the Amazon reviews complains about the author's narration in the audible book being monotonal; there's something of a monotone about her writing as well (it would have been improved by following her own advice--adding graphics to the book, particularly for the "conclusions"). It would have been more useful if I were younger.   I did skim all the way through, and actually I found the last chapter ("thinking with groups") the most interesting, likely not in the way she intended.

As I read, two phenomena came to mind: the death of the concertgoers in Houston and Trump's rallies. She writes about how groups, particularly students or coworkers, can be more effective, but some factors are common: a common focus (speaker, performer) and common engagement.  Both were likely present in Houston and in Trump's rallies. I suspect I'm not too different from many liberals in dismissing the rallies in the past. But after reading the chapter I'm reconsidering, particularly in the light of Houston. Just because I'm proudly individualistic (I write with tongue in cheek) doesn't mean that others are. 

Whither Bipartisanship?

 Nancy Pelosi led a delegation of Congressional Democrats to the climate change conference in the UK. 

I'm old enough to remember when we used to have bipartisan representation during many major international efforts.  I don't know when that stopped.

NIMBY and Racism

 Recent articles on how industrial areas, particularly those with undesirable side effects such as air or water pollution from chemicals or what we used to call "junkyards", are located in or near black areas.  The usual theory is the choice of the site was racist in a sort of generic way.  

I used to try to slow my employees down when they tried to explain something to me--usually I wanted a step by step approach to get things clear in my mind.  That temperament is perhaps one reason I resist the implied explanation. 

I can imagine a cascade of NIMBYism that produces the end result without anyone involved in the decision making process being consciously racist.  Both a reaction against a proposed siting decision by rich and powerful neighbors, or the anticipation of trouble by those making the decision could play a part, as could a higher cost of land.  That's even assuming there was a decision point, rather than a more unplanned evolution of land use.

Should Agency HQ's be in DC?

 One argument against the Trump administration's moves of BLM and the USDA agencies out of DC was the need to work closely with the rest of the administration and Congress.

There's a hint in this discussion of CDC director Walensky (the HQ is in Atlanta but she seems to be working from MA?) that CDC is being hurt by the location.

Participatory Budgeting

 Apparently the recent elections authorized something called "participatory budgeting" in Boston (the link seems to say it's more of an exploration than a cut and dried deal). First I'd heard of it, although there's an organization devoted to promoting it.

Without knowing anything about it I don't like it.  I don't get many comments on this blog, but the longest exchange I had with anyone was on this issue, although neither the proponent nor I called it that.  I think my resistance is based on inheriting some "Progressive" or "goo-goo" ideas--the concept that professionals in management know better than mere citizens about what is needed and how to do it.  (I wrote the preceding sentence with tongue-in-cheek, and am only half serious.) 

I may look at it more seriously now, or I may get lazy and pass. 

Youngkin in Oval in 2025?

 Since McAuliffe lost in VA on Tuesday, attention turns to the victor; Mr. Youngkin. He's youngish (56) and obviously ambitious, so where does he go.  Virginia governors are term-limited, so in 2025 he'll be looking for a new job. Senator Kaine presumably will run for reelection in 2024, so one possibility is to run for that seat. 

Youngkin seems to combine some assets: a pleasing persona, enough political ability to thread the needle between Trump and Virginia moderates, a resume combining achievements in finance and in religion, plus the requisite family (four children).

There's discussion today of whether his campaign sets a pattern for the Republicans in the future.  The attack on CRT and support of charter schools is a tie to the right, while otherwise he seems to have a more conventional Republican platform.  So I think the test will be whether he can navigate the politics of the next two years, and lead the Republicans to a takeover of the Senate and increased margin in the House of Delegates in 2023.  If that happens, he'd make a good dark horse candidate.  

The "Essential America"

 Children believe in essentialism. So did ancient Greeks, apparently, according to the wikipedia article.  I don't.

Is "America" essentially a racist country, a white-dominated country, a city on the hill, a light unto the world, an imperial hegemon, a pillar of human rights?  My answer is some of all of the above, more so at different times in history and less so at other times, in some places and at some times.

In other words, it's complicated.

The Nose of the Camel and Government Programs

 This Politico piece traces the history of the pension program for Civil War veterans (Union army) from very limited coverage to close to universal, ending with its last payment in 2020 to a widow. It argues that because the vets developed an effective lobby organization (Grand Army of the Republic) they were able to expand the program over the years.  It goes on to cite the 20th century's Social Security and Medicare programs as similar cases where a program limited initially was expanded subsequently. All of this is in service to an argument that possibly the programs included in Biden's "Build Back Better" might have a similar destiny.

I don't quarrel with the writer's logic and hope for the expansion of BBB programs.  I do offer the instance of USDA farm programs as another instance of the expansion of government programs, an instance which is even more noteworthy than his examples.

In the years since the Agricultural Adjustment Act was passed, programs have expanded to cover not only seven or eight field crops, but oilseeds, fruits and vegetables, specialty crops, aquaculture, apiculture, etc.  The only crops whose programs have been reduced as of now are tobacco, peanuts, and naval stores.

Does College Broaden One?

I read this the other day:

A university is a place where minds should be opened, not closed; where perspectives should be broadened, not narrowed; where biases should be challenged, not confirmed. It would appear that many of our universities are failing at this critically important role.

It started me thinking.  When I went to college that was true.  But then I was coming from a mostly rural area and background, living in a time when my knowledge of the world was mostly limited to reading magazines and the Binghamton Press newspaper, short news broadcasts on NBC, and the books available at home and in the school library..  So encountering the variety of people and courses at college was definitely broadening, particularly socially, since I was already leaning liberal and agnostic.  College opened a world of choices to me, or at least made more real the choices I had vague glimpses of when in high school.

Would that be true today? I don't think so, at least for me.  If I were growing up today, I'd have had access through the internet to more information than all of my professors had in 1959, not to mention movies, videos, social media, porn, from across the  world.  If I wished, which I think I would have, I could have explored a multitude of careers and livestyles in great detail.

The "university" by its name has always been a place to encounter the universe of knowledge, but it no longer has a monopoly; it has to share its special position with the web. I think the change must affect the role of college as a rite of passage, marking a big change in one's life, and therefore collegiate culture. How can college be a liberating, a broadening experience when the incoming student has already experienced the variety of social media?  It can't, and students, at least enough students to make a fuss, want something different.

When I went to college activists were still protesting against "in loco parentis" rules, curfews, etc.,  We thought we were adults, and wanted recognition accordingly, using that as fuel for our rebellion against our elders. We wanted college to be a place of freedom.  These days the activists, both liberal and conservative, want school to be a refuge, a safe place for their identities.

The National Map and National Broadband

 GAO has a report on the problems FCC faces in providing national broadband.There's a new law:

To identify areas that need broadband access, the Universal Service Fund relies on maps of internet accessibility based on data collected from broadband providers. However, this data is not always accurate. For example, some rural areas with low populations are lumped together, and may appear to have access when they do not. This is because providers may report the entire area as having broadband even if only one location has service. The result of this mapping error is that resources to improve internet access do not always match the need.

To get more precise assessments, Congress approved the Broadband DATA Act in 2020. This required FCC to create a better map starting with getting more granular data on the precise locations of homes, businesses, and other places that could make use of broadband. Once this location map is complete, FCC will overlay broadband providers’ service area data to show which locations are served and which are not.

GAO notes the problems in combining available databases, like USPS, Census, and DOT address data.  Many of the problems mentioned were familiar from back in the day when we were trying to achieve consistency across counties and across agencies. 

What struck me was the lack of any mention of USGS.   So I went to their site, I'd not been in 10 or more years, and found the National Map. It's more impressive than it used to be, but obviously doesn't serve as the base for governmental action.  Took a look at Rural Utilities, which GAO also discussed, but they don't seem to have used GIS in their broadband efforts. 

I wonder whether other countries have been more successful in coordinating the rollout of broadband to their rural areas.

COBOL and Our Government

 Interesting paper via Marginal Revolution--a scholar found that inefficiencies and delay in  states still using COBOL to run their unemployment insurance systems hurt GDP.  

I calculate that the failure to invest in updating UI benefit systems in COBOL states caused U.S. real GDP to fall by an extra $181 billion (in 2012 dollars) during this time period. Three primary mechanisms account for the effect I find: COBOL states could be characterized by (1) longer delays in processing claims, (2) longer delays in filing claims, or (3) a larger share of discouraged filers: individuals who do not file because they do not believe that they will be successful in receiving benefits if they file or individuals that believe that the cost to file is too high. 

I've good memories of COBOL; for one thing that's how I met my wife, in a COBOL class.  

While I understand why states haven't redone their unemployment insurance systems, I won't lose the chance to ponticate on the subject.  In an ideal world we'd have a national unemployment insurance program, not 50+ individual state ones.  In an ideal world we'd find the resources to redo software systems more often than every 50 years.  In an ideal world we wouldn't leave money (GDP) growth on the table. 

Rational Consumers and Personal Histories

 Anthony Downs died recently--he was an economist who argued that people assess their choices rationally, particularly their political choices, which often leads to them not voting. 

A recent paper here argues for the importance of personal experience in shaping choices.  A recent article on inflation in the Post got a number of comments--I was struck by the number who recounted their history, or their parents history, with high mortgage rates back in the 1980s.  As for myself, when I bought in 1976, I ended up buying from Gulf Reston, choosing a new townhouse, although one of the last remaining in a 220 unit townhouse development.  Part of the factor for my choice was the 8 percent rate for the mortgage, as Gulf still had access to financing at that rate, although the going rate was IIRC closer to 9.  Rates cited in the comments on the Post piece were double digits.

That personal history makes me more sensitive to the dangers of inflation returning than most of my fellow liberals, who seem these days to believe it can't happen again. 

This isn't inconsistent with Downs theory, but it does fit the NBER paper.

.

Identities: Race and Religion

 Two of the more idiosyncratic bloggers I follow are University Diaries, written by Margaret Sotan, a GWU English professor, and The Daily Howler, written by Bob Somerby, a retired schoolteacher and Harvard grad. Both have, as my mother might have said, bees in their bonnet. I say Prof. Soltan's are guns, corruption in colleges, and Haridim. Mr. Somerby's are liberal media (particularly on education and statistics) and philosophy.  

Soltan has a post on an article from Mosaic, an online Jewish magazine, describing education in the Haridim schools in New York City.  There seems not to be much education occurring within the schools.  She calls it a cult, and questions its acceptance within American culture.  

Somerby has posts yesterday and today on a NYTimes Magazine piece on Rebecca Hall and an upcoming movie.  He questions whether an individual belongs to a race, and the nature of the linkage. Is it the one-blood rule, is it the context within which the person grows up, or something else? Is there any reality to race?

Seems to me both bloggers are dealing with issues of belonging and identity. If you view, as I do, the bonds between individual and nation as rather rubbery, stretching and contracting depending on the individual and the circumstances, under what circumstances do the links break.  I've no problem with the Amish Americans, even though they end education early and get some special treatment. But Haridi Americans (is that a term) stretch the bonds more, perhaps simply because they have the history here than the Amish do. But for both the Amish and the Haridi the bond between individual and group are voluntary, though as long as one is a member you're subject to group pressure.

Somerby's subject relates to involuntary bonds--you can't choose your grandparents or the cultural context you grow up in.  At least, they used to be involuntary, entirely determined by the community.  It turns out there is choice: first for those whose color is ambiguous, they can "pass", and now for many who can choose which parts of their history they accept.  (Somerby has some fun with the words "Allen whose great great grandfather...", pointing out she had several  great grandfathers (16 to be specific). 

Great Bureaucrats--Dwight Ink

 It will be interesting to see if the Times or Post run an obit on Dwight Ink.  GovExec is out with this tribute.

Cowen and McChrystal

 Cowen's interview with McChrystal--what struck me:

• he supports a draft, to get away from restricted recruiting from South and Midweat and military children, including women.
• big concern about getting the right people into the military for drones, surveillance, etc. 
• he supports a period of affirmative action (thinking about the history of women in the military) which means accepting the fact that some of the beneficiaries of AA will not be as good as their competitors.
• he still eats only one meal a day.

Other interesting bits there. 

When Did the Holocaust Happen?

I remember reading Dwight Eisenhower's "Crusade in Europe" (now a politically incorrect title) after it came out in 1948.  He describes his reaction to the death camps, including pictures of the survivors.  Then in the 1950's there was the "Diary of Anne Frank". 

But the "holocaust" didn't really occur, it didn't take shape as a narrative with a name and an accepted history until later, as shown in this Google ngram.

 

Buy Yourself a Hair Dryer? No--a Hay Dryer!

 As farmers in the Northeast were reminded this summer, lots of rain means poor or no hay.  It's difficult to make good hay, if you're dodging rain storms to cut the hay and then let it dry in the field (IIRC we'd usually mow one day, rake the next, and bale the third). I remember how dispiriting it was to spend a day cutting a good crop of hay, raking it into nice rows, and then see it rain for days, with dry spells just long enough to get your hopes up and turn the wet rows over to dry out, only to rain again.

Believe or not, and I'm not sure I do, they've invented and are selling a "hay dryer". The post says it's a staple in Europe, but dairymen in the US have only bought a few.  The Europeans argue that high quality hay reduces disease (i.e., listeria) and improves taste of cheese, and also feeds into the EU focus on natural food.  The EU subsidies for farmers may also help in financing. 

How the Sausage Is Made

 Does anyone remember the deals which Nebraska, Louisiana, and Arkansas got, IIRC, when the Dems tried to pass ACA? I don't remember whether the final legislation included the deals; I'm thinking not, but there was a lot of wheeling and dealing during the run up.  That's what I see today.

The Role of Intermediaries

 Started reading Sarah Chayes, "Thieves of State, Why Corruption Threatens Global Security". Early on she generalizes between Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union and Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban: naive Westerners come into the society, knowing and understanding little, find a "native" who's willing to explain and help and, often, are deluded by the intermediary.  That was her path. She entered Afghanistan in 2001.

Her description ties into an interest of mine I've had for a long time: the role of intermediaries/interpreters.  In American history we start with Squanto (as I first learned, though now scholars write "Tisquantum"). There's a long line of such liaisons, as time goes on often what used to be called "half-breeds", not sure what the correct term is now.  Even before Squanto there was "La Malinche", who was the interpreter, etc. for Cortes in his conquest of Mexico. Sacagawea was another interpreter.  

I suppose the media now serves in a similar role of interpreter/story teller and is similarly distrusted. 

But it's wrong to see it as wily natives scamming naive Americans; it's also the case that wily Americans scam the naive natives.  

Buying Out Coal Miners as We Did Tobacco Producers

 Took me a while but after seeing Alec Tabarrok suggest buying coal mines and discussion on twitter of paying coal miners, I realized there's precedent--we bought out tobacco farmers, or rather their tobacco quotas, back when the FSA tobacco program was eliminated. 

See this ERS page.

Politics and Vaccines

This twitter thread notes the outstanding performance of Puerto Rico in getting their people vaccinated--better performance than any state. It attributes their high rate to the fact their parties all support vaccination--there's no Dem-Rep split.

Zoom and HOAs

 The pandemic has been a shock to many systems, institutions, and habits; some good and some bad.  I think one good one is reducing the friction in social participation.

[For example, take a home owners association (HOA). After I moved to Reston I was automatically a member of the Pinecrest HOA.  As such for some years I participated in the annual meetings, but my enthusiasm waned as my guilt about letting others shoulder the responsibilities for the cluster increased.  So I don't think I've been in an annual meeting this century, much less the monthly board meetings.

But with the advent of covid the board meetings converted to Zoom.  That by itself wasn't sufficient to get me to log in, but a renovation of a sidewalk by our house raised an issue sufficient to get me over the hurdle, to learn Zoom well enough to [what's the term for attending a Zoom meeting?]. I noted this week there were 11 attending, 4 board members and 6 residents, plus the maintenance rep.  

I don't know that I will continue my attendance, but I think Zoom and the stimulus of the pandemic likely has permanently increased the interest and attendance at the meetings.  It makes sense: you no longer have to venture out of the house and join strangers, make small talk, etc.  Instead you just fire up the laptop or cellphone while sitting in your easy chair, and you have easy control over the degree to which you participate.  It's great for introverts, who must be a sizeable part of the population. 

The Worst of Times?

 Lots of attention being devoted to the state of our democracy and the nation  Poor, declining and heading to possible civil war seem to be common analyses.

I'm reading the new Jonathan Alter bio of Jimmy Carter, who cites the opinion of a British visitor in 1971.   At that time, with the Vietnam war going and racial problems stark and the boomer generation not trusting anyone over 30, the outlook seemed grim.  I remember it well. 

On Being Moral When All About

Thinking about judging people in the past for their action or inaction on moral issues, such as slavery, somehow I got to Rudyard Kipling's poem "If", which is about maintaining one's independence of others and circumstances.

The bottomline is that change and independence is hard to do.  Hard individually--think of everyone who tries to lose weight and fails, who tries to break a drug addiction and fails, who tries to stop smoking and fails.  Hard as a society--both liberals and conservatives can and do point to social problems they'd like to change, whether crime, divorce, homelessness, inequality; problems they have tried to and failed to solve. 

Discrimination in Lending Markets

 NYTimes reports on the Paycheck Protection Program, which it seems black business owners were more likely to get loans from online lenders than local banks. Although there's been publicity and concern about artificial intelligence algorithms being biased, apparently in these cases they may be less biased than the banks.  (The bias in algorithms would result from training the AI app using data which was produced by biased non-AI systems, like training an app to assess beauty by using pictures of whites.)

While the report described by the Times is on black businesses, it easily relates to black farmers, including som issues which I may have touched on in the past. Back in the dark ages of the New Deal the precursors of the Farmers Home Administration were authorized to fill a financing gap, to provide loans to farmers who were credit-worthy but had been unable to get loans from local banks. Even before then the Farm Credit system was set up in the Wilson administration for the same purpose. 

The Congressional Research Service has an overview of the farm credit situation.

The Downside of Government Programs

 As a liberal and retired bureaucrat I support government programs.  

But I need to recognize their downside, which relates to the "last mile". When a government sets up a program, it needs to make a connection with the customer/client/citizen who will benefit or whose conduct will be regulated. I've written before about our problems with making that connection.  But I've been writing from a government-centric viewpoint, saying that for example the Treasury has a hard time getting funds to support renters and prevent evictions out.

What about the perspecitve from the "man on the street", as we used to say? There's many problems--off the top of my head some are:

• the person may be "off the grid":''
• without a mailing address (i.e., homeless or on a reservation, etc).
• not have a landline or cellphone
• not have electricity
• the person may be on the grid, but not on the "social-government" grid:
• not interested in the world, not following news, etc.
• not receive information shared by friends or relatives
• the person may be in a position to receive information but:
• doesn't have the initiative, the time, the energy, the ability to research and make a connection 
• is reliant on a caregiver or guardian who's not conscientious
• is suspicious and must be educated and/or sold on the program.

Bottom line--how much effort do we expect government or NGO's acting for the government to expend in order to overcome the hurdles. My impression in the old days of ASCS, SCS, and FmHA was the different agencies had different expectations in dealing with their farmers.  

Even in the best scenario it's likely some people will fall through the cracks, meaning a government program always increases inequality between groups.

[Update: this isn't a government program but the principle is the same--as the article describes, most people are not aware of this alternative abortion option.]

"Gifted Students" and Rural Schools

 New York City is going to phase out its schools for gifted and talented students.  That stimulates discussion on social media, discussion which is largely among the educated classes who might lean Democratic.

It strikes me as an instance where the elite discussion unconsciously disses rural areas. In such areas the schools are smaller and the opportunity to do enhance instruction for gifted and talented students is constrained.  So to rural ears the discussion seems tone-deaf and irrelevant.

Vaccine Mandates

 I gather from this post in the FSA Facebook Group that the issue of complying with the federal vaccine mandate is controversial. I ran across a post somewhere today which indicated the actual process of implementing the mandate was going to take a while.  

I wonder whether with the delta surge declining will the administration actually go through with it.  It sounds as if even when implemented there would be a drawn-out process for penalizing anyone who didn't get vaccinated, so it may become a dead letter. We'll see.  In the meantime there's a lot of angst out there, and it may be creating conflict in small offices where there's strongly held divergent opinions.   

We who support the Biden's position need to remember the human costs of how it's implemented. 

Nondelegation Doctrine

 Volkh Conspiracy has a guest poster writing on the "nondelegation doctrine", the idea that Congress should grant power to the executive only with strict guidelines.

For anyone interested but too lazy to go to the Reason magaizine, here's my comment:

1. “Major policy decisions”? Do we know what that means? There’s a standard of economic impact of $100 million for regulations–but that’s been unchanged since it was first adopted in the 1970s in relation to inflation concerns, not policy.

   Arguable the USDA/Trump decision to spend billions from the Commodity Credit Corporation was a major policy decision. But it wasn’t particularly controversial, because it was too esoteric and there were no significant opposing voices to make a fuss. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/01/21/trump-tariff-aid-to-farmers-cost-more-than-us-nuclear-forces/?sh=4fe7a4966c50

   I suspect the operational definition is an issue about which there’s a big fight between the parties and/or interest groups. I think the reality is such issues don’t get resolved in legislation, just kicked down the road to the faceless bureaucrats who can be blamed if they screw up and/or offend people.

   Reply