Aggravations of Aging

 Some gripes, now I'm officially a geezer. (I wrote "old geezer" at first, but then discovered "old" redundant.)

• Losing the ability to grasp small or tricky objects, like some sealed plastic bags where there's about 1/8" which you can grab. Or prescription pills which fall on the floor and have to be picked up.
• Losing muscle memory at the keyboard.  In the good old days I could rest my hands on the laptop keyboard, or in front of the desktop keyboard, and my fingers would find the home row and the home keys--I could start typing and have it make sense on the screen, or if not making sense, at least form English words.  These days I'm not able to do that.
• Loss of hearing.  I do wear hearing aids in the evening.  I've this odd mixture of disability--can hear some sounds with my left ear and others with my right.  Hearing has slowly declined over the years, slowly, for which I'm grateful.  My uncle was quite deaf when he was still in his 60's, but I'm far from that bad.

The "Original Sin" of the U.S.

 CNN has an opinion piece by James Goodman "It's time to stop calling slavery America's 'original sin.'"

It turns out his problem is with "original sin" as a metaphor.  As I read his analysis I realized it really doesn't have that much to do with the religious doctrine. Instead it's a way of saying something really bad was done in the past, while the doctrine says humans are fated to do bad now.  

Goodman makes a point towards the end, with which I do agree: the first "sin" in the creation of America was the dispossession of Native Americans. 

The Party of Reagan or Trump?

I saw a poll the other day showing that lots of Republicans now believe that Trump was a better president than Reagan.  

I didn't like either president, but Reagan had an emollient quality which was the opposite of Trump's abrasive mode.  It's the difference between the man whose Eleventh Commandment was: speak no ill of any Republican and the man who accused his vice president of lacking courage on Jan. 6.

Why Didn't Trump Go to the Capitol?

 Sometimes what doesn't happen is more informative than what does.

Take Jan. 6.  Trump promised his people at the rally that he would walk with them down to the Capitol.

He didn't?  Why? Why lie to his devoted followers who'd come from all over the country to hear his words and support his cause?  Why take the risk they'd turn on him for lying to them?

If the gathering at the Capitol was going to "peacefully and patriotically make their voices heard" there wouldn't seem to be much reason for Trump to cop out, to be a p***y as he calls his critics.

Just maybe he suspected that it wouldn't be peaceful? Just maybe he thought there might be some danger there? Just maybe he knew there could be violence and he was fine with that?  Or just maybe he's a coward? 

Second Shot

 Just got my second shot of Pfizer vaccine. 

End of Trump?

 I may have said I would have preferred no impeachment trial.  Instead I would have preferred a censure plus passage of a bill(s) to tighten the laws which Trump violated or found very elastic.  Hopefully we'll still going to get some tightening, if nothing else.

Maybe we can now allow Trump to fade into the dustbin of history?

Provisions of the House Bill

As described by Sen. Warnock's website the  Emergency Relief for Farmers of Color Act:

 "The Emergency Relief for Farmers of Color Act would provide $5 billion to America’s Black, indigenous, Hispanic, and farmers of color who, in addition to being hard-hit by the current public health and economic emergencies, have long struggled to keep their farms and ownership of their land in rural communities due to discrimination by USDA and other government agencies. 

• The legislation provides $4 billion in direct relief payments to help farmers of color pay-off outstanding USDA farm loan debts and related taxes, and help them respond to the economic impacts of the pandemic.
•  The legislation provides another $1 billion fund to support activities at USDA that will root out systemic racism, provide technical and legal assistance to agricultural communities of color, and fund underresourced programs that will shape the future for farmers and communities of color. Specifically, this $1 billion fund will include:
• Pror education that historically serve communities of color; 
• o Scholarships at 1890’s land grant universities and for indigenous students attending land grant institutions; 
• o Outreach, mediation, financial training, capacity building training, cooperative development training and support, and other technical assistance; and
•  o Assistance to farmers, ranchers, or forest landowners of color that are former farm loan borrowers and suffered related adverse actions, or past discrimination or bias.

 The Emergency Relief for Farmers of Color Act is supported by Rural Coalition, National Black Farmers Association (NBFA), Black Belt Justice Center, Black Farmers’ Appeal: Cancel Pigford Debt Campaign"

CCC Powers

 "While CCC operates according to a large number of statutory authorities, its broad powers allow it to carry out almost any operation required to meet the objectives of supporting U.S. agriculture"

That's from this CRS report on CCC.

I note from the report that in previous posts on CCC I missed an important element.  In response to 2009 actions by the Obama administration Congress put limits on CCC authority in FY2012-2017,  but failed to renew the restrictions in 2018 on. 

Artificial Insemination

 That should be a click bait blog title, shouldn't it?

I think we switched from having a bull to artificial insemination around 1945 or so. I do remember when the basement of the barn, where the bull had been kept, was floored with concrete in preparation for having hens there.  

I remember when I was banned from the barn when the inseminator came, because the process of insemination was not fit for my young eyes. I remember dad discussing the virtues of different sires in choosing the semen to be used.  

It's been a long long time since then.  I was struck by this piece on the dam of the bull of the century, RORA Elevation. 9 million descendants of one bull--amazing.

Outlook for 2020 Elections

 I'm pessimistic about Democratic chances in 2022 to maintain the House majority.  The Senate may be easier. 

Here's a map for the Senate, showing Pennsylvania as a tossup and Georgia as leaning Democratic.  I'm not sure about Georgia; the Republicans are working on changing the rules for voting.  On the other hand, Sen. Warnock did do better than Ossoff. 

In the House give the Republicans a pickup of 8-10 seats from redistricting and add in the historical loss by the majority party in mid-year elections and things look grim.

It's possible that Biden and the Democrats do a great job on covid and the economy, foreign affairs don't erupt into anything major, and the Republicans experience a lot of intra-party conflict resulting in weak candidates.  It's possible, but I'm not hopeful.

Setting a Precedent

 Perhaps the strongest argument in Trump's impeachment trial is the fear of setting a bad precedent.  It should be taken seriously. When I studied American government, the idea that a president could ever be impeached was not a serious issue.  When Watergate occurred there was a quick surge of research, trying to figure out the pros and cons, the procedure for impeachment.

We went ahead with the process to impeach the president. I haven't researched, but I'd guess that some serious people then said it was unlikely there would be another impeachment in the 20th century.  But there was.

We went through the Clinton impeachment--that experience plus some changes in social mores may have set another precedent--we don't want another impeachment over private behavior, and hopefully future presidents have learned to handle scandals better.

So now we've impeached Trump twice. I hope the precedent we've set is never to elect a person like him again.  

On Prohibition, a Reconsideration

 Politico has a long piece on Black Prohibitionism by a political science prof, Mark Lawrence Schrad.

My mother was death on alcohol.  I never quite understood it.  As I've gotten older I wonder whether someone in the family was a drunk.  I don't know of any likely candidate, but her vehemence makes me wonder.  

Anyhow, the piece puts prohibition back into the context of Progressive Era ideas to improve human life.  Some of those ideas are still considered good (secret ballot), some are now considered bad (eugenics), some have seen their reputation vary over the years (referendums, city managers, experts). 

I'm not sure on prohibition.  We're in the process of legalizing marijuana, partially on the grounds it's less dangerous than alcohol. I've still enough puritan in me to believe that life is hard and one should not try to round off the corners.  Some of the critics of prohibition see it as reflecting WASP prejudice against recent immigrants who frequented saloons.  But then I read Samantha Powers memoir which deals with the alcoholism of her father (very interesting).

My current bottom line is it's good to have people on both sides of the issue--not good for one side to have it all their own way.

On Improving Statistical Infrastructure

The Covid Tracking project announces its end. 

But the work itself—compiling, cleaning, standardizing, and making sense of COVID-19 data from 56 individual states and territories—is properly the work of federal public health agencies. Not only because these efforts are a governmental responsibility—which they are—but because federal teams have access to far more comprehensive data than we do, and can mandate compliance with at least some standards and requirements.

I wholeheartedly agree with this, and hope the Biden/Harris administration devotes money and attention to improving our statistical infrastructure, given the deficiencies revealed by pandemic.  

Inflation Worries and the 1970s

 The debate over the proper size of the Covid bill often gets into inflation--will a bigger federal debt cause greater inflation.  I've commented somewhere that while any inflation will take a while to show up, based on our experience in the 1970s it takes a long time for policymakers to react and fight it.  

Expanding on that--we do have the experience of the 70's to guide us, and we know that very high interest rates a la Paul Volcker will stifle inflation albeit at the cost of a recession.  Another factor I'd consider--in the 70's unions had more power than now.  The industrial sector was much more important in the economy, and unions had considerable power in that sector.  I think it's also true that union contracts had been written in a way to cope with inflation, at the cost of adding to inflationary pressures. Globalization has come a long way since the 70s, so presumably it's harder for an economy to go its own way and inflate.  Finally, a big part of the inflation then was the effect of OPEC finding its power, resulting in much higher prices for oil.  Today we don't have any cartel with similar power over a critical factor in the economy, and oil specifically and energy generally are less important economically.

Should Democrats Go Hard and Fast?

 Part of Ezra Klein's argument in this New Yorker interview is Democrats should push harder than they did in the Obama administration to fulfill their promises.

I've just completed Obama's  "A Promised Land".  Part of the criticism is that the stimulus package should have been bigger and more obvious--issue checks rather than changing deductions for example. Part of the argument is don't let the filibuster stop you.

I'm not sure I buy that. Go too far too fast and you don't get Joe Manchin and Jon Tester reelected, you don't get Doug Jones elected, etc.

But it seems each administration is trying to avoid the mistakes of the last administration (of the same party). For example:

• Clinton administration designed a healthcare package without consulting Congress and it failed.  Obama administration spent (wasted?) a lot of time and energy dealing with Congress on ACA
• Biden administration is aiming to improve healthcare fixing Obamacare's problems.
• Bush administration had an aggressive foreign policy trying to restructure Iraq and Afghanistan.  The Obama administration backed away from that.  

Of course today's progressive wing of the Democratic party reminds me of the McGovern wing of the party 1968-76, which led us to defeat and long years out of power in the White House.

And my attitudes towards the $1.9 trillion Covid bill are swayed by memory of the the inflation of the 1970's.

We will see.

Ebbs and Flows

One thing which seems to occur and recur is a pattern of ebbs and flows.  In this case I'm thinking about race. In the 1950's the emphasis was on integration, the idea that our American problems would be cured by ensuring that all legal barriers to full participation.  Hence, the emphasis on civil rights.  This was building on the program of the NAACP.  The Black Muslims, the Nation of Islam, was separatist.

In the 1960s and 70's with Stokely Carmichael  and other leaders the Black Power movement emerged, with Malcolm X contesting with Martin Luther King.  As I remember it the issue was partly at least whether whites could be trusted, or wehther blacks would do better by strengthening the black community.  It may have been a reaction to what happened to black teachers and other professionals during integration.

While these lines of division seem to an outsider like me to have blurred over the 50 years since, I think we can still see those impulses working today. And this post at Boston 1775 shows them working then--black Congregationalists establishing their own church.

Voting With Their Feet in 1758

Prof. Somin at Volokh Conspiracy has a book and a bunch of blog posts on the theme of people voting with their feet--moving from one state to another or one country to another.  As a libertarian he's all for it. 

It's not new, as I discovered when reading the Anderson "Crucible of War" on the Seven Years War.  Interesting bit in it--the Massachusetts legislature wrote to the British regarding the demands for more troops for 1759 campaign, recruiting for which would require paying enlistment bonuses.  They complained that taxes were already so high that people were leaving Massachusetts for better places.

Of course 270 years later Massachusetts is still wealthy and still a high tax state.

Health Providers and Vaccine

 Had my dental appointment today.  It's a pain, but at my age I need to be careful with my teeth, something I wasn't during most of my life.

I am puzzled--my dental hygienist was commenting on the provision of vaccines to pharmacies.  I wasn't quick on the draw--about 2 hours later I think to wonder--has she not received her vaccine shot?  I thought that category would be close to the top.

Telephones with TV = Zoom Meetings

 I wrote earlier on my memories of various trials of adding pictures/TV to the telephone--all of which failed.  

GovExec has a piece which may summarize the change from the pandemic:

"“The most important outcome of the pandemic wasn’t that it taught you how to use Zoom, but rather that it forced everybody else to use Zoom,” Autor told me. "We all leapfrogged over the coordination problem at the exact same time.” Meetings, business lunches, work trips—all these things will still happen in the after world."

It's an important point--just knowing that people with whom you need to communicate use the new method is great.  It's rather like 20 years ago when you knew someone might have an email address, but maybe they only remembered to check it once in a blue moon, so you'd use the telephone instead of email.  

Snow Days?

 Reston got maybe 3 inches of snow, more to the north and east of us.  The TV news is running their usual scroll of schools which are closed  I'm not clear whether these are all schools doing in-person teaching, or whether the snow is impacting remote learning.  I know there's been speculation the experience the pandemic has given us with remote learning means no more snow days, but has that become a fact?

CCC and Climate Change--Carbon?

 No sooner had I written yesterday's post on CCC's past Politico issued this piece on the corporation's possible future--Vilsack might have his lawyers come up with a theory to justify using CCC funds for climate change work, specifically a carbon bank.

😉

MFP Revisited and CCC

 Three academics at U of Illinois examine some issues of the Market Facilitation Program.  As they say at one point, the questionable legality of the program is academic, because Congress didn't challenge it when they gave the Commodity Credit Corporation more money.

A history of CCC would be interesting. It was created under the New Deal, following examples from WWI and the Hoover administration of using government corporations to gain administrative flexibility, particularly IMO to evade the requirement for yearly appropriation bills passed by Congress.

USDA bureaucrats during my time used it creatively.  The administrative people used CCC authorities to go around the Government Printing Office rules to get fast printing of forms and directives when we were implementing new legislation and disaster programs.

In 1983 IIRC the Reagan administration used it for a disaster program for Texas counties which was part of a deal to get conservative Texas Democrats (which used to exist) in the House to vote for legislation.

Also in 1983 there was the Payment-in-Kind program, which used creative lawyering to transform CCC loan collateral into payments for farmers to divert acreage from production.

As computers came along, the procurement and IT people used CCC financing for computer equipment, setting off a 10-15 year battle with the Congress which ended with Congress tightening the restrictions on ASCS/FSA buying of computers.

After I retired there were further special programs authorized--I think by both the Bush and Obama administrations, but I don't remember the specifics.

Greenhouses Versus Vertical Farms

 This Post article on AppHarvest illustrates the difference between the two:

• Greenhouses are horizontal, basically relying on the sun for the energy to warm the house and grow the plants. Because they're land intensive, they aren't typically found in cities.  Like self-storage facilities they need to be close to their markets but far enough away to enjoy lower land costs.  Because their energy cost is low(er) as is their construction cost, they can be used to grow more nutrient intensive plants (as tomatoes in the piece).
• Vertical farms are vertical, basically relying on electricity for the energy to warm the facility and grow the plants. Because they minimize land costs, they can be sited in cities, minimizing the cost of transporting their produce.  But because of the cost of electricity and construction, low nutrient greens and herbs are their sweet spot.

Both types of facilities can benefit from technological advances, like computer management of the growing and harvesting process.  They can both appeal to producers by offering pesticide and insecticide free produce. They both are vulnerable to disease/pests from their concentrated production.

Multiple Communication Channels--CFAP

 Back in the day I remember catching flak from state specialists when the various agricultural media outlets--magazines and radio--came out with program announcements and details before our procedures from DC had hit them. 

I suspect the problem has become even more complex.  An example:

My twitter feed is announcing a freeze of CFAP:

Biden just froze CFAP aid to farmers program. https://t.co/dOx5Lf6B62

— NYFarmer (@NYFarmer) January 28, 2021

The farmers.gov site has the notice:  

I'm sure the FSA directives system will take a while to catch up. 

Siloed Covid Data

 I posted about registering for an appointment for the vaccine shot through the Fairfax county site.  Then Sunday I got a shot from Kaiser Permanente.  Today I got an Invitation to Schedule Appointment from Fairfax county.  Unlike the Kaiser site, I can't find a way to update Fairfax's data to show I've been vaccinated.  I've emailed them with the problem.  If it's not solved, the vaccination data for Fairfax county residents will be inaccurate. 

[Update: got a nice response from Brian at the Fairfax site suggesting using my appointment ticket to cancel.  Responded that I tried, but couldn't see a way to do so. Amanda at the Fairfax site replied she'd tell the IT people to do it. 

I guess the stats could be handled by taking the population of Fairfax and comparing it to the sum of those vaccinated by various providers in the county.  That would assume that every provider identifies the residence of the people they jab.] 

Drezner Has a Long Sentence

Dan Drezner writes a column in the online Washington Post.  Here's his penultimate paragraph is yesterday's piece: 

This is mostly nonsense. How a thrice-married, twice-impeached, single-term ex-president accused of serial adultery, casual bigotry, rank misogyny, sexual assault, tax fraud, campaign finance violations, acceptance of foreign emoluments, obstruction of justice, abuse of power, incessant lying, attempted electoral fraud and the incitement of violence advances a coherent and conservative set of values is beyond my meager comprehension, unless “American Restoration” means restoring the values of the Colonial era, when slavery was totally legal and a corrupt monarchy controlled America.

A Salute to Kaiser

Got my covid-19 vaccine shot on Sunday through Kaiser Permanente.  I have to salute their efficiency:

• I got an email notice from them which included a ticket with which to make an appointment.  I assume this was based on screening their database for people over 75 residing in Virginia.
• I selected my appointment time with a little problem--used my laptop which didn't display the whole signup page, so initially I missed a popup notice which appeared at the top of the page.  Figured that out when I tried again on my desktop.  I think they were doing appointments at 10 minute intervals, but I might be wrong.
• Got a confirmation from KP, together with the message of not to arrive more than 15 minutes before the time.
• Drove to Tysons and read a book in the car until 15 minutes before time.
• Walked into the building. Was greeted by staffer1 and was directed to staffer2, who in turn directed me to an empty intake station (I'm guessing they had 6 intake stations, each with a staffer3 to confirm my identity and appointment and record the intake, completing a card and scheduling me for the appointment for the second shot. 
• Was then directed down a hallway by staffers3 and 4 to an empty vaccination station (one of several) with staffer5, perhaps a nurse, who asked about allergies and previous experience with vaccinations and gave me the jab. 
• Was then directed to a waiting room, where staffer6 gave me a note showing the time I could leave (i.e. 15 minutes after I arrived). 
• Then got in the car and left.  I didn't check my watch, but I'd guess I spent 25 minutes in the process, 15 of which were post-shot waiting.

So, bottom line--I had no unnecessary waiting time and everything went smoothly.

I got the shot in the mid-afternoon, so I don't know how the process operated early or late, but from my experience it seems they did a great job of matching resources to demand.  They used lots of staff--half the people I interacted with were traffic police--but that was because they were using three different rooms and weren't able to organize a straight workflow.

USDA Appointments

 The Livingston County News picks up a CQ piece on the appointment of Jewel Bronaugh as deputy secretary for USDA. It notes the criticism of Biden's nomination of Vilsack to return as secretary due to the Sherrod firing.  Includes an endorsement from the VA Farm Bureau, and hopes from John Boyd.

FSA employees may be pleased that she was previously FSA state director in Virginia under the Obama administration.

[Updated: DTN piece on the same.]

Will Trump Be Our Worst President?

 It's popular now to say he's one of the worst, but I've lived too long.

I think part of the answer is going to depend on how things work in the future. If the Trumpites continue their dominance of the Republican party, and if they're able to win in future elections, and/or if some of Trump's actions/policies turn out well, it's possible his reputation will be higher than we think now.

I point to the instances of Grant, Truman, and Nixon, all of whom were disdained when they left office but whose reputations have revived since.  Elizabeth Drew had a Post Opinion piece on Nixon's path back. I'd forgotten but she says he'd regained respect by 1980. 

Grant used to be thought a terrible president, mostly because of corruption.  But these days his handling of the South during Reconstruction has gained him a lot of respect, particularly from historians and the recent biography by Chernow has cemented it.

Truman when he left office was very unpopular, regarded as someone who had diminished the presidency by his demeanor, his fight with MacArthur, his Korean war "police action".  IIRC Nixon called it an administration of crime, corruption, and communism. But as the Korean war faded and his civil rights policies came to the fore his reputation has gained.

Trump could experience similar gains, but I hope not during my lifetime. 

[Updated--Post has a piece on changes in reputation here.

Vaccine Appointment

 I have one for tomorrow at Kaiser.  I didn't apply, just got notified of the availability and provided a "ticket" to use in making appointment.  Kaiser says to notify them if I've already gotten a shot from somewhere else, which is good. Now the question is whether Fairfax county site will allow me to report my vaccination from Kaiser.  Will see after I actually receive it.

Burley Tobacco Growers Co-op

 Al Cross at the Rural Blog notes the Burley co-op is going out of business.  From the website:

• A partial settlement has been reached that would result in dissolving the Co-op and paying between $2000 and $6000 each (estimated) to certain tobacco growers in Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, or Missouri that are members of a settlement class certified by the Court.
• The settlement class is made up of those individuals or businesses that were a landowner, operator, landlord, tenant, or sharecropper growing burley tobacco in Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, or Missouri during at least one of the 2015–2020 crop years.

I don't know the story behind this--apparently there was a class-action suit claiming it didn't serve any purpose these days.

The co-op movement was strong in agriculture in the last century, both on the producer side and the supply side. The tobacco, peanut, and cotton co-ops were precursors and enablers of the New Deal farm programs.

[Updated:  Wendell Berry's brother on its history.]

Our Short Memories

I've seen several articles comparing the difficulties faced by Biden/Harris in 2021 to the problems facing FDR in 1933 or Lincoln in 1861.  The problems Obama/Biden faced in 2009 are usually ignored, or dismissed.  I think this reflects our short memories, as well as the success of the administration.  

 I recognize the economy is worse today than in 2009, but it's worse because of the pandemic. The assumption now is when we fix the pandemic by vaccinated the country the economy will revive. (I think the assumption is wrong--the pandemic will have caused changes in society and the economy which will be revealed as our health gets back to normal.)  In 2009 we knew the economy had systemic problems which needed fixing.  We also "knew" a big stimulus would lead to inflation, which seems to have been disproved.

Meanwhile Trump boasts of not getting the country into a new war, which is true enough. Obama faced two wars--the dying one in Iraq and the endless one in Afghanistan. 

I think our memory of the euphoria of electing a black president clouds a realistic perception--the division in the country which was revealed by the rise of the Tea Party movement (and Occupy Wall Street on the left) was there on January 20, 2009, even if we did not realize it until later.

The Attitude of the Right

Powerline blog is the most right of the news/opinion source I follow.  Paul Mirengoff is usually, not always, the most sensible of the four writers on the blog.  

I'm disappointed by his post today, basically saying the right should presume that the president is always wrong.  I had hoped, because he seemed the one most open to the idea that Biden won fairly, he would be a bit more open to Biden's appeal for unity.

I remember Herblock, a Post cartoonist who always drew Richard Nixon with a heavy five o'clock shadow from the 1940's through the 1968 campaign, when Nixon was inaugurated in 1969 drew a Nixon with no shadow, and the caption reading "this barbershop gives one free shave". 

Have We Seen the Peak?

 It's possible the pandemic has peaked in the US with the graph of new infections flattening, possibly starting a decline, which would then be followed by a similar change in hospitalizations and deaths.  

The conjunction of 400,000 deaths, the Biden inauguration, and the peak would be significant.

Big Dairy

Two interesting pieces on big dairy--we've come a long way since dad consulted with the artificial inseminator over which bull to use for the one of our 12 cows which was in heat.

• how a big US dairy is dwarfed by a bigger one--can you believe 6 figures?
• and occasion to ponder how we got from that to this cow in 70 years.

Changing Perspectives Yield Changing Judgments

West Virginia seems to be doing well with vaccinations.  Lawrence Wright in the New Yorker has a long article on the Plague Year, in which he relays Birx's favorable judgment on Jim Justice, the wealthy governor of the state.

The 4 years of Trump's term have changed my perspective on many people.  Some who have gained:

George Will

Bill Kristol

Mitt Romney

Kevin Williamson

You'll note the common thread running through the names. 

Bloomberg on Vertical Farming

 Here's a skeptical article from Bloomberg on the economics of vertical farming.

The issue is mostly the cost of energy usage--if you have cheap energy and efficient lights (LED) you can grow leaf vegetables and herbs, charge a premium price, and break even.  That's state of the art today. What happens tomorrow?

Interesting--as I write this I realize I've not been an enthusiast about vertical farming, but I have about sources of renewable energy.  My theory has been that the learning curve for innovations in solar panels and battery storage will work to drive the cost down below carbon-based fuels.  That seems a tad inconsistent with my lack of faith in the same factors in vertical farming.

Maybe I'll be around long enough to see what the results are.

Why Do We Need?

 

As a UK man living in a mostly gun-less society answer me this America. Why do civilians need guns like this? pic.twitter.com/O2tB65pTB3

— Paul Samuel (@PaulSteveSamuel) January 16, 2021

That tweet, and the associated thread, got me to asking this question:  Why do Americans need guns, and pickup trucks, and McMansions, and lawns, and...?

Mostly IMHO it's a matter of signaling to ourselves and to others our status and self-image.  

The Consultant Security Blanket

 As technology and society grow more complicated, the easy out for managers of an organization is to offload their uncertainties and angst to a consultant.  At the very least it kicks the problem down the road.  Sometimes more time is all that's needed to gain some clarity, perhaps even to have the problem solve itself.  Sometimes more time enables the organization to learn to deal with the new.  Sometimes the troublemakers who are raising cain about an issue have grown up, gone out, or gone to the grave, and some other issues are being raised by other troublemakers. 

A Test of Masks and Social Distancing: House of Representatives

 The NYTimes had a graphic on the Representatives and Senators who contracted covid-19 virus.  I was interested because at the Powerline blog one or more of the bloggers had expressed skepticism over the efficacy of face masks and social distancing in combating the disease. I think enough time has passed for a fair evaluation.  I also think the members of Congress are roughly similar so a comparison by party is valid.  The outcome: 44 Republicans and 17 Democrats have contracted the disease.

I don't know whether that's statistically significant, but it impresses me.

Could We Do a Free Speech Circuit Breaker?

 The stock exchanges have "circuit breakers"--on a day when there's panic selling and the indices drop through the floor, they can suspend trading to allow nerves to calm down.

Kindergarteners have "time out".

Is it possible we could do something similar with social media?  Rather than the drastic remedy of prohibitions, simply slow the twitter storm or whatever. Suppose X has 20 million followers, and he sends out a tweet. Instead of all 20 million receiving it in milliseconds, spread the impact over hours or days. 

Relying on Kaiser--More on Vaccination

 When I wrote before about getting vaccinated, I assumed that Kaiser would notify me when I was eligible and they had the vaccine.  Having revisited their site today I'm not sure that's right.  I've not seen any discussion from either Kaiser or Fairfax.

I see Fairfax County Health Department has a vaccine registration app, which I've completed. A fair number of questions on health--allergies, etc. but it was easy enough to complete in a couple minutes. (I'm a vanilla case, answering "no" to most of the questions.) Notably, they didn't ask for my medical provider so they don't have an obvious way to cross check with Kaiser.

We Are Who We Thought We Are?

 Lots of discussion--"this isn't who we are" or "this is exactly who we are".

The idea of "imagined communities" is relevant.  People imagine what America is, they develop an image of who we are which is based on stereotypes and narratives from the media, schools, movies and TV, etc.  So when a big event happens, it can be inconsistent with the image. That's not necessarily the case however.  For example if we looked at the reactions shortly after 9/11 or the Boston marathon bombing  I'd guess most people thought the reaction to the events was very "American" or "Boston" ("Boston strong").  

Over the long run I suppose the image is sustained if the positive events outweigh the negative events.

Getting Vaccinated

 I suspect one of the big problems in vaccinating the U.S. is the degree to which it relies on bottom-up action.

What I mean is that presumably you can identify the hospitals, clinics, and long-term care facilities in your state, deliver vaccines to those sites, and rely on their management to get their people vaccinated.  But once you go past that, once you start allowing people who are 65 or 75 and older to be vaccinated, you are essentially asking those people to take some initiative. 

At best, like me, their health care provider, Kaiser Permanente in my case, will notify them when they have vaccine available.  But people who don't have a healthcare provider with resources will have to search out a pharmacy.

As I write I realize the situation is not that different for the flu vaccine. Apparently 60-65 percent have gotten that vaccine in the past.  

Seems as if this is a situation where we don't know until we see the history.

Organic Farming Has a Weakness

 Give credit to Grist for publishing this piece on regenerative grazing (a version of organic farming which reduces carbon emissions from beef cattle by capturing carbon in the soil).

A new analysis says there is indeed a big reduction in emissions, but the problem is the regenerative system requires more land, 2.5 times more land.

I may have blogged on this before--I think this applies to row crops as well.  Doing a rotation among row crops, small grains, and legumes requires more land for the legumes, as well as a market for the hay.

Impeachment?

 I believe Trump deserves to be impeached, again, but I don't believe there's enough time to do so.  I fear setting a bad precedent for future impeachments if we don't devote more time to developing the case, and we don't have the time.  

Nor is there enough support in the Senate to convict.

So my bottom line is for Congress to pass a resolution of censure.

Congressional Review Act Lives!

 Slate notes  that Warnock and Ossoff's victories mean the reviving of the Congressional Review Act.  

I've posted about it before--it briefly allows Congress to revoke regulations passed within the last 60 business days, and makes it more difficult to reinstate them later. That last bit hasn't been tested yet, while the Republicans made extensive use of it in 2017 to revoke Obama's last regulations.

I suspect lawyers will be interested to see how things play out. I know the papers have cited a number of different issues on which the Trump administration has been moving recently. One of the most recent was limiting the basis for regulatory action to research for which the data is publicly available, an issue of big concern on climate change.