Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Outlook for 2020 Elections

 I'm pessimistic about Democratic chances in 2022 to maintain the House majority.  The Senate may be easier. 

Here's a map for the Senate, showing Pennsylvania as a tossup and Georgia as leaning Democratic.  I'm not sure about Georgia; the Republicans are working on changing the rules for voting.  On the other hand, Sen. Warnock did do better than Ossoff. 

In the House give the Republicans a pickup of 8-10 seats from redistricting and add in the historical loss by the majority party in mid-year elections and things look grim.

It's possible that Biden and the Democrats do a great job on covid and the economy, foreign affairs don't erupt into anything major, and the Republicans experience a lot of intra-party conflict resulting in weak candidates.  It's possible, but I'm not hopeful.

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