More on Election/Mail Problems

 As is often the case, I'm not as alarmed as the media or others concerned about the decline of USPS capacity and its impact on the election.  These considerations:

• the media have done their job of crying the alarm (and exaggerating it.  One meme has been the need for USPS to deliver social security checks, but they've been direct deposit for years now.  It's true that rural areas in particular are dependent on USPS.  I agree with the mandate of universal service.  I agree with Kevin Drum that current charges for first class are too low when compared to other countries.  I agree with Charles Lane that charges for corporate mailings are too low, due to their lobby on Capitol Hill.  And it's likely true that many of the changes De Joy has instituted are "good management", if not wise politically.)
• leaders are responding to the alarm.  Michelle Obama urged in-person voting and/or voting early and ensuring that the ballot was received.  Gov. Northam is pushing changes in VA arrangements in a special session of the legislature.  We're 77 days out and given the publicity there will be a lot of changes across the country.
• Harshaw's rule says there will be glitches, widespread, but I'm predicting that the media around 10 pm on Nov. 3 will say the election has gone/is going better than the worse predictions.

Why We're Polarized

In the process of reading this book by Ezra Klein.  One researcher he cites is Henri Tajfel, who found that once we humans categorize things, assign labels to them whether it's groups of people, symbols, or whatever, we start acting on it.  With respect to people this led to:

"They proposed that people have an inbuilt tendency to categorize themselves into one or more "ingroups", building a part of their identity on the basis of membership of that group and enforcing boundaries with other groups.

Social identity theory suggests that people identify with groups in such a way as to maximize positive distinctiveness. Groups offer both identity (they tell us who we are) and self-esteem (they make us feel good about ourselves). The theory of social identity has had a very substantial impact on many areas of social psychology, including group dynamics, intergroup relations, prejudice and stereotyping, and organizational psychology."

Klein notes the dynamics of sports fans, where the objective differences among teams are trivial, but the fanaticism can be large. 

The Strange Death of Europe

 I skimmed through this 2017 book  by Douglas Murray. It's interesting, because it's a very Euro-centric view of migration, but you see parallels and contrasts with the concerns in the US embodied in the Trump administration.  Some points which stuck out to me:

• the decline of Christianity 
• the loss of standards by which to judge (adversely) the Muslim immigrants 
• European guilt over colonialism and German guilt over the Holocaust
• governments were always behind the curve in reacting to increased flow of immigrants
• immigrants as violent, crime-ridden, and not integrating into the society
• loss of faith in Europe
• almost total ignoring of US trends and experience
• perspective that societies are unchangeable, that Europeans don't change when they emigrate, that Muslims don't change
• perspective that European culture/society is very vulnerable to change and loss of old historic values
• alienation from modern life, art, 
• the author's perception is that migrants are unskilled, unlike the US where several groups are more highly skilled than the norm for Americans.

One thing which strikes me--human societies have problems with too rapid changes. Sometimes the reaction is over-reaction, throwing the baby out with the bathwater.  Sometimes we can succeed in what I'd call "metering change"--taking measures which tend to slow the pace of change down to a speed which is acceptable.  I think that was the case with the New Deal and subsequent farm programs--they didn't save farmers for good, but they "flattened the curve", spreading the change over a longer time with a slower pace.

Prediction on Election Problems

There's a growing number of pieces discussing various problems which could arise in determining the outcome of the 2020 election. Slate has a piece on ten of them, collected from various sources.  As is often the case, I'm more optimistic.

I'll make this set of predictions:

• I don't think there will be a major problem, because I think the Biden-Harris ticket will win convincingly in enough states on election night to make the outcome clear.  There may be some states where the outcome is a bit doubtful, where recounts are going to happen, but history tells us recounts rarely change the result.
• If there are major problems, I expect the leaders of the Republican Party, excluding the Trump-Pence camp, to react much as one would have expected in the past.  Fight for advantage within the rules, as in Florida, but not violate norms.
• Even for Trump and Pence, I don't expect major violations of norms post-election.  Pence would want to run in 2024 and the Kushners may well have ambitions of their own.  At the least a long fight with norm violations is not going to do the Trump Organization any good.  

Questions To Live By

 Reading a recent bio of Ben Franklin.  IIRC we had to read his autobiography in my college course on American Intellectual History.  I've read other books on him, a very engaging figure.  But I'd forgotten these questions which were prerequisite to someone joining his Junto Club, an early do-good nonprofit:

Have you any particular disrespect to any present members? Answer. I have not.
Do you sincerely declare that you love mankind in general, of what profession or religion soever? Answer. I do.
Do you think any person ought to be harmed in his body, name, or goods, for mere speculative opinions, or his external way of worship? Answer. No.
Do you love truth for truth's sake, and will you endeavor impartially to find and receive it yourself, and communicate it to others? Answer. Yes.

Wikipedia tells us that a possible predecessor was a British club, which included John Locke.

I observe the third question is relevant to the so-called "cancel" culture.

Harris for VP

 I'm surprised at the emotional reaction to the nomination expressed in the papers and by one relative.  I'd assumed that we'd had a woman Presidential candidate and a black President, so the combination wouldn't be that significant.  It seems it is, which is a reminder that putting yourself in others' shoes is difficult and often misses. 

More "Crops" Added to CFAP

 USDA announced more "crops" for CFAP.  I put crops in quotes because some of them I"ve never heard of.  Back in the disaster days ASCS had to deal with a lot of new crops, because the program covered vegetables and nursery.  Now FSA has:

• yautia/malanga (a type of taro root)
• cherimoya ("custard apple") praised by Mark Twain as the most delicious fruit.
•  carambola ("star fruit")
• mamey sapote ("red mamey")

Blacks as Central to American Popular Culture?

 Prof. Appiah writes a NYTimes review of Isabel Wilkerson's new book: “Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents,” I'll read the book because the concept is interesting, but I was struck in the review by this:

 The place of Black workers in the American economy is surely part of the racial story, and it’s notable that the word “capitalism” doesn’t appear in Wilkerson’s book. Low-status jobs are generally low-income jobs; both income and status matter. Nor can we turn to the caste model in explaining the centrality of Black people to American popular culture.

I'm working on a post on the differences in American society between 1950's of my youth and the 2020's of my old age, but I hadn't yet touched on that. 

It's true--I could probably count on both hands the number of blacks in the culture who seemed significant to me:

Jackie Robinson

James Baldwin

Nat King Cole

Thurgood Marshall 

By the end of the decade MLKing but not Malcolm X.

Sidney Poitier

no singers that I remember.

I expect an 18 year old me in today's world would have a much longer list of singers, actors, writers. etc.  

Part of the difference between then and now is blacks coming to the fore.  But it's also true that part of the difference is the decline of hierarchy/or the multiplication of niches. 

 

 

 

Selma

Finally got around to watching the movie Selma Friday night. It was well done. It's been criticized for the portrayal of the LBJ-MLK relationship as more confrontational and less collaborative than it was.  

The DVD included two newsreel clips from the time of the marches.  There was an interesting contrast between what the movie showed and what the newsreels provided.  

• In the first newsreel, the focus was on the death of Rev. James Reeb, a white minister, was beaten and died after participating in the first march.  He became a martyr and triggered an  influx of whites to participate in the second march.  The movie shows him, his beating, and the results very quickly; understandably because the focus is on MLK. The newsreel people likely didn't have access to the internal deliberations of the marchers so they went with the most drama.
• The second newsreel shows the second march.  Where the movie portrays the marchers approaching the line of troopers, the withdrawing of the troopers, and MLK's prayerful decision to turn around very dramatically, the newsreel says there was a consultation between MLK and the major commanding the troopers and a previous agreement that the march would not proceed.  In this case the movie went with the drama, possibly or likely distorting the true history.

Women Wore Hats Too

 I think I've blogged about the photos showing men in the 1920's-1950s wearing hats.  It seemed to be universal, not an indicator of class.

In an attempt to be fair, I want to link to this tweet, with a photo showing 1920's women wore hats as well. Apparently the  gender difference was that women wore hats everywhere, but men only outdoors?

 

Aug 7, 1920 - William Hays, Chairman of the Republican National Committee, and a delegation of Connecticut suffragists at Republican National Headquarters in New York City #100yearsago pic.twitter.com/FTAoinFuKY

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) August 8, 2020