There's a growing number of pieces discussing various problems which could arise in determining the outcome of the 2020 election. Slate has a piece on ten of them, collected from various sources. As is often the case, I'm more optimistic.
I'll make this set of predictions:
- I don't think there will be a major problem, because I think the Biden-Harris ticket will win convincingly in enough states on election night to make the outcome clear. There may be some states where the outcome is a bit doubtful, where recounts are going to happen, but history tells us recounts rarely change the result.
- If there are major problems, I expect the leaders of the Republican Party, excluding the Trump-Pence camp, to react much as one would have expected in the past. Fight for advantage within the rules, as in Florida, but not violate norms.
- Even for Trump and Pence, I don't expect major violations of norms post-election. Pence would want to run in 2024 and the Kushners may well have ambitions of their own. At the least a long fight with norm violations is not going to do the Trump Organization any good.
No comments:
Post a Comment