Has the Ag Bubble Popped?

That's Tom Philpott's question, which he answers "yes".

10/10 or a Day in DC

On Friday, October 10, the sun was shining, the skies were clear, the air was fresh, even in DC. Reminiscent of 9/11, even though a month later, and 7 years of course.

In the District of Columbia on that day: a Vietnam veteran copped out from making his first visit to the Vietnam memorial, a cousin of a decorated World War II soldier was mightily impressed by the WWII memorial, surviving members of Bomber Group 401 were honored at a ceremony, including music by an Air Force brass group, two tourists passed by the District of Columbia memorial for "The World War" (built in the optimism of the 1920's), the widow of a Navy veteran of the Korean War era was not affected by the Korean War memorial. Uptown at the World Bank the finance ministers were meeting on the crisis, but the Federal Reserve Bank headquarters looked serene and remote in the sunshine, the statue of Albert Einstein near the sidewalk was invisible.

Also, National Park workers were busy keeping the gardens by the Tidal Basin looking good, even this late in the year, joggers jogged, an eagle landed on the fence on the Mall keeping tourists off grass that needs rejuvenation, tourists from all parts of the world took pictures of the monuments, and of each other taking pictures of each other. The Jefferson Memorial was very visible, the White House not. The cafeteria at the American Indian museum served very good pumpkin and acorn soup and a succotash far removed from the succotash found 50 years ago in early frozen food sections of groceries. A veteran of the Utah beach landings talked about his service (with the 9th Division) in WWII and Korea, his spine-tingling experience of a night visit to the Korean war memorial, and about his 20+ years researching genealogy.

A street evangelist, aided by loudspeakers, urged blacks to accept salvation and to reject whites (I think, the noise was rather overwhelming). An "Irish pub" served Guinness, and several males full of beer and testerone, and perhaps angst over the 1000 point down and up of the Dow. A man, young to an old codger but feeling the passage of time, talked of his interest in genealogy, the delights in mapping family trees and instigating family reunions. The Metro down escalators were static, but didn't hinder the rush of bureaucrats and other workers heading home for a long holiday weekend, celebrating the "discovery" of America by one Columbus, who wasn't greeted with pumpkin soup by the natives, who had discovered America 100 centuries or more before.

Finally, two tired people made their way to home and hotel.

Mainline Stores Versus "Fringe"

In this piece, a defense of supermarkets as opposed to food through "fringe" stores (not necessarily niche stores, but 7-11's, drug stores, etc. She mentions the decline in mobility among our aged (as well as sometimes a loss of interest in cooking and food) and the trend towards "agglomeration", which I noticed on my recent trip.

Bad Times for Agriculture Ahead?

Just getting back into blogging and have many posts on other blogs to catch up on. But I'm anticipating problems for agriculture: the dollar is stronger against the euro and pound, so I'm assuming it's stronger against the currency of grain importing countries. And stories such as this, about grain piling up in ports because the credit markets are frozen, are worrisome. And a general slowdown in economic growth means a cutback in meat consumption. So I'm expecting sharply lower grain prices, meaning bankruptcies as farmers who committed to land purchases at high prices or rentals at high rates, can't make ends meet. In other words, a rerun of the 80's, but from a base of fewer farmers.

I'll be interested to see what John Phipps thinks.

[Updated: This Brownfield post reports an economist's guess as to the impact of a world-wide recession on farm prices.]

Words from France

I recommend the Dirk Beauregard pieces I've "shared" (some day I'll figure out what that means and whether I can do more with it).

Here's one I found interesting--the strategies he used to teach English to french law students (full disclosure: I didn't do well enough in college french to pass the language requirement, had to retake.) I admire the ability to do the sort of thing he describes.

And this one contains this passage, which is fascinating for what it says about the society:

All papers in France are distributed by the state-run, Paris-based company "les messageries Parisiennes" - the company distributes every paper and magazine that exists throughout France, this means that all national newspapers, however big or small are guaranteed a fair national circulation. They will get to ever corner of the nation, from Paris right through to the smallest mountain village. Nice idea. However, when the messageries go on strike, no one in France gets a newspaper.

And this one discusses the experiences of French and English in WWII (based on his in-laws and ancestors' stories).

But read or skim all his posts--he's eclectic, if incapable of spelling correctly.

Voter Registration Fraud and Voting Fraud? [Updated]

The Reps are pushing stories that ACORN has indulged in vote fraud (google "Acorn vote fraud". Some seem to be well-founded, at least those where indictments have been filed. I'd note a difference between "voter registration" fraud and "voting fraud" and make a couple comments, though:

• I'm assuming ACORN pays people to register voters. So they have an "agency" problem--if their agent gets paid on the basis of names and addresses of new voters, there's an obvious temptation to sign up people who are already registered, are ineligible, or whatever. So fraud is relatively easy. (It's a familiar problem--how do you evaluate performance?) To avoid this fraud, we need to open the voter lists so ACORN or whoever can match supposed new voters against existing voters and ineligible people and only pay agents based on valid new adds.
• The "fraud" of fraudulent registration is relatively harmless in itself. It simply means the voter turnout percentages appear lower than they should be. Granted it could enable "vote fraud", but I haven't noticed stories to that effect.
  
• The serious fraud would be either multiple voting by a single person or voting in a district where they aren't supposed to. I would propose a simple remedy for multiple voting: as in Iraq, stain people's fingers when they vote.

IMHO making voter lists transparent and using finger stains would mean the parties and the people could focus on the issues, and the prosecutors could devote time to other crimes.

[Updated to make my point more clearly.] [Updated again to add a link to TPM's discussion--spun, yes, but the basic point is the same.]

Good To Be Home

After 2900 miles, it's good to be home.

A Thoughtful Thread on Pro-Choice/Pro-Life

Todd Zywicki at Volokh.com instigates a thoughtful thread by asking for narratives where a pro-life position had changed (he hadn't noticed any, but had seen a lot of pro-choice moving to pro-life). The resulting thread is thoughtful, and an example of how people can miss stuff because it doesn't fit preconceptions.

[Updated with link]

Thoughts on Housing

I've previously blogged about the connection I saw between immigration and the housing bubble.

One early morning on the road I got to thinking, always dangerous for a bureaucrat. What are the forces in the housing market?

Suppose some mythical day in the past the US had 150 million households and 150 million housing units, that is, everyone is housed and every house is used. What happens next?

1. Disasters--houses get destroyed by fire, flood, etc. Need replacements.
2. Natural increase--people have babies who grow up and want their own household. Need new housing.
3. Immigration--people come to the US and want housing.
4. Movement--people move to where the jobs are, abandoning housing units in the rural areas, the Plains, etc. Need housing in Vegas.
5. Wealth--John McCain gets rich and decides the family needs another house. And another. And another. And another. And another. [Is the solution for our problems for everyone to follow his example?]
6. Smaller households--people get enough money to establish separate households. Want housing.
7. Part-time households--this may be a misnomer, economists may have a term for it and may even have statistics for it. It's the condo near the college for the helicopter parents to live in while visiting baby. I guess if we treat "wealth" as a factor, this would be included there.
   
8. Moving up--people look at their wallets, at the cost of housing, and the Joneses and want a better house.
9. Sharks--people find they can make money by persuading people to buy and sell--whether it's the mortgage brokers, the financiers, etc.
   

Given these sources of demand, builders build, people buy, and pretty soon you get a bubble going as everyone hears there's easy money to be made, not on Wall Street, not on Main Street, but on Housing. The buying and selling adds a final element: even though houses change hands quickly, the number of sales still (I think) lowers the occupancy rate a tad, so a few more housing units are need.

This list puts my immigration claim into perspective--it's a factor, but not a main factor. Good old-fashioned greed, the desire for more, is the main factor.

Rough Times in Sparta

As I mention in my report on our trip, we're staying 2 days in a very nice Holiday Inn Express in Sparta, IL. The local paper reports the local Chrysler dealer has closed and there's a big cutback (33 percent) in human services because of Illinois government problems.

With the coal mines mostly gone, it seems this area is pinning its economic hopes on recreation. Problem is, lots of areas are doing the same thing. Granted, it's the "idle rich", but even they have limits on how much time they can spend recreating.