My newspaper delivery person(s) send Christmas cards with envelopes with their return address, as a gentle plea for a tip. ("Person(s) because I get two papers, though in one delivery, but apparently the Times and Post have separate people, who've made a side deal to save gas by handling me in one visit.)
That's an old tradition, though maybe I should hold out for a poem, as they did in 1766, according to this Boston 1775 post.
Blogging on bureaucracy, organizations, USDA, agriculture programs, American history, the food movement, and other interests. Often contrarian, usually optimistic, sometimes didactic, occasionally funny, rarely wrong, always a nitpicker.
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
The Problem of Consciousness in Self Driving Cars
Technology Review has an article on why self-driving cars must be programmed to kill, which is one of their best of 2015, which attracted a whole lot of comments. The starting point is the old philosophical dilemma: in a choice between killing one and killing many, which is the right choice? Do you push the fat man onto the railroad tracks to derail a train bearing down on a stopped school bus, or whatever? Does a self-driving car go off the road and over the cliff to avoid killing people in the road, if it kills the driver?
It strikes me as a problem only for the self-driving car which is conscious. What do I mean? A computer processes one bit of information at a time, it's sequential. The philosophical dilemma is one of consciousness: because humans are conscious we know, or think we know, things simultaneously: both the fat man and the school bus and the possible different courses of action.
But how would a computer know those things? Say its driving a car which rounds the curve on the mountain road. Maybe it knows there's no shoulder on the side, just guard rails which it will try to avoid. At some point it starts to see something in the road. It starts braking immediately. It doesn't take the time to distinguish between live people and dead rocks, it just does its best to stop, perhaps being willing to hit the guard rail a glancing blow. Presumably its best is a hell of a lot better than a human's: its perception is sharper, its decision making quicker, its initial speed perhaps slower. I suspect the end result will be better than either of the alternatives posed in the philosophy class.
The self-driving car is going to be optimized for its capacities, which don't include consciousness.
It strikes me as a problem only for the self-driving car which is conscious. What do I mean? A computer processes one bit of information at a time, it's sequential. The philosophical dilemma is one of consciousness: because humans are conscious we know, or think we know, things simultaneously: both the fat man and the school bus and the possible different courses of action.
But how would a computer know those things? Say its driving a car which rounds the curve on the mountain road. Maybe it knows there's no shoulder on the side, just guard rails which it will try to avoid. At some point it starts to see something in the road. It starts braking immediately. It doesn't take the time to distinguish between live people and dead rocks, it just does its best to stop, perhaps being willing to hit the guard rail a glancing blow. Presumably its best is a hell of a lot better than a human's: its perception is sharper, its decision making quicker, its initial speed perhaps slower. I suspect the end result will be better than either of the alternatives posed in the philosophy class.
The self-driving car is going to be optimized for its capacities, which don't include consciousness.
Monday, December 28, 2015
"A Deal Deal"
One of my favorite movies is a minor Clint Eastwood film: Kelly's Heroes. It's a weird combination of war escapade and satire, mocking both the military and the counter-culture, Westerns, and movies.. Eastwood leads a motley crew through German lines into a town to rob a bank of German gold. However a squad of German tanks has also learned of the gold, so the good guys and bad guys face off in the town, eventually reaching an impasse. That's the moment at which Don Rickles, playing a corrupt supply sergeant, persuades Telly Savalas that it's time to do a deal with the Germans to split the gold; as he describes it, a "deal deal".
That's what Speaker Ryan did in the closing days of Congress, a deal deal. That's what some Republicans, particularly Paul Hinderaker at Powerline, don't understand--politics as the art of the deal deal.
That's what Speaker Ryan did in the closing days of Congress, a deal deal. That's what some Republicans, particularly Paul Hinderaker at Powerline, don't understand--politics as the art of the deal deal.
An End to Innovation: 3-D Printed Rocket Parts
Government Executive reports on NASA's development of 3-D printed rocket parts.
Sunday, December 27, 2015
Discrimination in USDA
NYTimes has a piece on discrimination against Hispanics by USDA agencies. Forest Service is mentioned. It ends with this paragraph:
"The department’s Office of Advocacy and Outreach signed an agreement with the Hispanic Association of Colleges and Universities in early December to fund 180 paid internships at the agency. The association represents more than 470 schools."
"The department’s Office of Advocacy and Outreach signed an agreement with the Hispanic Association of Colleges and Universities in early December to fund 180 paid internships at the agency. The association represents more than 470 schools."
Saturday, December 26, 2015
Farm Houses Better Than Hospitals
Benjamin Rush writes to George Washington, from Brad DeLong's blogging of the Revolution, describing the problems of his hospitals, which are more dangerous than Valley Forge. He pleads:
Before any material change can be made in our System it will be in your Excellency’s power to stop in some measure the ravages our hospitals are making upon the army by ordering the Surgeons immediately to billet such of the sick as are able to help themselves in farm houses. The air and diet of a farmer’s kitchen are the best physic in the world for a Soldier worne down with the fatigues of a campaign.
Friday, December 25, 2015
More on Genetic Modification
Nathanael Johnson's piece at Grist on the complexity of defining GMO's.
Bottom line: if you can't define it you have difficulty labeling it.
Bottom line: if you can't define it you have difficulty labeling it.
Thursday, December 24, 2015
Cotton Humor from Chris Clayton
You have to know the background but this is from Chris Clayton's (tongue in cheek) 2016 Policy Outlook:
Cotton planting increases from 8.5 million acres to 16 million acres thanks to commodity certificates and USDA designating cottonseed as an oilseed eligible for PLC payments. The U.S. also files its annual report assuring the World Trade Organization that none of its commodity programs are market-distorting.
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
When Did the "East" Become the "North"
Brad DeLong blogs the American Revolution. Today
he quotes Washington's letter to the Continental Congress, his second in two days, on the dire situation of his army, now camping for the winter at Valley Forge:
So why and when did the "North" become the "North", rather than the "East"? I suppose the change in terminology would be associated with the rise of sections in the new nation, perhaps even accentuating sectional tensions.
he quotes Washington's letter to the Continental Congress, his second in two days, on the dire situation of his army, now camping for the winter at Valley Forge:
We have, by a field return this day made no less than 2898 Men now in Camp unfit for duty because they are bare foot and otherwise naked and by the same return it appears that our whole strength in continental Troops (Including the Eastern Brigades which have joined us since the surrender of Genl. Burgoyne)....You should read the whole thing if you're interested in history, but what catches my interest is the reference to the "Eastern Brigades". The context makes it apparent that he's referring to men from NY and New England, people whom we today would call "Northerners" or "Yankess". A glance at the map shows why the reference: New England does lie to the (north)east of the mid-Atlantic states. (Maine is still known as "downeast".)
So why and when did the "North" become the "North", rather than the "East"? I suppose the change in terminology would be associated with the rise of sections in the new nation, perhaps even accentuating sectional tensions.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Ag Policy and Crop Insurance
An Agpolicy piece on crop insurance, somewhat stale, discussing moves to have payment limitation on insurance and cut insurance subsidies.
Monday, December 21, 2015
Armed Forces Competition in Vietnam
Was channel surfing yesterday and found a professor, author of a book on bombing in the Vietnam War, talking about his conclusion. If the house weren't so full of books now, I'd buy it.
One of his themes was the competition between the Navy and Air Force over the bombing, including sending planes against a key bridge (which took 700 sorties to bring down) with no bombs, just to add another sortie to the scorecard. That's sick. It's also bureaucratic.
One of his themes was the competition between the Navy and Air Force over the bombing, including sending planes against a key bridge (which took 700 sorties to bring down) with no bombs, just to add another sortie to the scorecard. That's sick. It's also bureaucratic.
Sunday, December 20, 2015
Dehorning Cattle and GMO
We mostly dehorned our dairy cows. Why? For safety, both for us (dad) and for the cows. A cow has a whole lot of strength. Cows have different personalities: some are affectionate, some are reserved, some are plain nasty. Pair a nasty cow with horns and you have a risk of a bad injury. Even a nice cow might injure you; it'd be an accident but still an injury.
So we dehorned our cows. As soon as we could feel the nubbin of the developing horn we'd apply caustic paste which would burn away the growing point. It really hurt the calf, but it was for everyone's good. Kill dad and the cows would go for slaughter. Keep him healthy and the cows would have more years of life, before going to slaughter. Such is the logic of the dairy farm.
Now CRISPR, gene editing, promises to eliminate that source of pain. All good to my mind, but it's genetic modification. See this Mother Jones article
So we dehorned our cows. As soon as we could feel the nubbin of the developing horn we'd apply caustic paste which would burn away the growing point. It really hurt the calf, but it was for everyone's good. Kill dad and the cows would go for slaughter. Keep him healthy and the cows would have more years of life, before going to slaughter. Such is the logic of the dairy farm.
Now CRISPR, gene editing, promises to eliminate that source of pain. All good to my mind, but it's genetic modification. See this Mother Jones article
Friday, December 18, 2015
The World Is Getting Better
Charles Kenny in the Atlantic writes on this subject, providing a number of metrics to support his case.
President Obama weighs in on 2015 here.
President Obama weighs in on 2015 here.
Thursday, December 17, 2015
No End to Payment Limitation Fights
From Agri-pulse on the omnibus bill:
Cotton growers win relief from payment limitBottom line. Despite the actively engaged change I discussed yesterday, a well-organized interest group has ways to advance their interests which don't involve the farm bill.
Here are some key provisions for food and agriculture in the omnibus:
Cotton assistance - The bill would reinstate the use of commodity certificates, which provide a way around the $125,000-per-person limit on marketing loan gains and other forms of subsidies. The provision would help producers “sell their cotton on a more orderly basis, and it keeps us from having to take ownership of the cotton,” said Conaway.
The use of certificates ended in 2009 when Congress eliminated a limit on marketing loan gains. The 2014 farm bill restored a limit on marketing loan gains by including them in the $125,000 limit and didn't restore certificates. But the cotton industry argues that the $125,000 limit ($250,000 per married couple) has created challenges for individual growers while threatening to disrupt cotton marketing.
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Actively Engaged Regulations Finalized--Is the 30-Year Struggle Over?
FSA published the final rule on "actively engaged" in farming determinations here.
My reference in the title of this post is to the 1985 farm bill, which I believe IIRC added the actively engaged provision to the payment limitation regulations There's been a long political fight over how to define the term. Perhaps the fight is now ended, given the declining importance of FSA programs, and the focus will shift more to the rules on the crop insurance side? We'll see.
"No major changes are being made in response to comments, because FSA has determined that the comments support the definitions and requirements for ‘‘actively engaged in farming’’ specified in the proposed rule and support limiting eligibility for farm payments. Also, there was no consensus amongst the comments for any alternative payment eligibility provisions that would address the 2014 Farm Bill requirements. FSA has made minor changes from the proposed rule in this final rule to respond to commenters’requests for clarifications of certain provisions"With age I've diminished interest and ability in parsing FSA regulations, so I'll leave that to others.
My reference in the title of this post is to the 1985 farm bill, which I believe IIRC added the actively engaged provision to the payment limitation regulations There's been a long political fight over how to define the term. Perhaps the fight is now ended, given the declining importance of FSA programs, and the focus will shift more to the rules on the crop insurance side? We'll see.
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Discrimination and Who Discriminates
From a piece on a study of discrimination among Airbnb hosts:
They found remarkably consistent effects: The discrimination appeared to come from both black and white hosts, men and women, hosts renting entire properties and those sharing rooms in their homes. It came from hosts listing expensive properties as well as cheap ones. And the neighborhood didn't seem to matter either — hosts in diverse neighborhoods discriminated about as much as hosts in homogenous places.I don't understand the exception: do black females share a feeling of sisterhood based on their race and gender--if so,why? Is it an expectation based on church-going, that single ladies who are traveling are likely to be churchgoers and therefore okay?
There was one exception to this broad pattern: Black female hosts didn't appear to discriminate against black female guests.
Monday, December 14, 2015
The Surprising Globalization of Pre-Revolution American Trade
My title says it all. Boston 1775 quotes a 1765 letter from the head of the British customs service for America to his bosses, describing the implications of the protests against the Stamp Act--no stamps meant no legal exports and:
But the Evils necessarily occasioned by a Stop to the internal business and Police of the Colonies, are not equal to the Consequences of shutting up their Ports at this season of the year—permit me briefly to enumerate a few of them.Go to Boston 1775 for a series of posts describing the events as the Stamp Act was adopted, protested, and eventually disposed of.
Thousands of Seamen and Others whose sole Dependance is on Navigation not only rendered Useless to their Country but deprived of the Means of Subsistance, Provisions for which there are at this time large Orders, particularly for Corn for France, Spain, Portugal, the Mediterranean &c. must perish on hand, while famin may spread itself through our West India Islands by being suddenly cut of from their usual Supplies; Ireland would be greatly distressed by the Want of flax seed from hence, on which her linen Manufacture depends; Other Articles of Produce by which Remittances may be made to Britain detained in the Country—the Revenue lessened, and trade and Navigation the Source of Wealth and the Support of a Maritime and Commercial Nation, entirely stopped, which must be attended with Ruin to Multitudes and distress to All
Sunday, December 13, 2015
Technological Advances and Mass Shootings
Tyler Cowen asked why the increase in mass shootings over the last 50 years or so. He elicited a lot of comments. I suggested there was a gain in available firepower over the years. That in the 1960's you saw a lot of revolvers. Even pistols didn't have big magazines. And rifles were mostly hunting rifles. So a shooter had more difficulty in getting a lot of shots off in a short period of time. One of the most deadly mass shooters in our history was the Texas man, who used a rifle from a library tower, quite different setup than our usual scenario these days.
I got some push back but nothing which convinces me. The changes in the weapons which are available don't cause mass shootings, but they make them more feasible.
I got some push back but nothing which convinces me. The changes in the weapons which are available don't cause mass shootings, but they make them more feasible.
Seems
to me back in the 50’s, most handguns were six-shooters and often
revolvers (harder to reload?). So I think technological trends have
enabled more mass shootings. My impression is that most people who fire
guns, whether in the military during war, police, or people committing
crimes, often have to fire many times to inflict wounds and
death–multiple bullets for one hit. So the increasing ability to fire a
lot of bullets has likely increased the number killed and wounded in any
one event. And perhaps the ability to do so has increased the
likelihood of doing so? - See more at:
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/12/what-is-the-best-theory-for-the-rise-in-mass-shootings.html#comment-158820760
Seems
to me back in the 50’s, most handguns were six-shooters and often
revolvers (harder to reload?). So I think technological trends have
enabled more mass shootings. My impression is that most people who fire
guns, whether in the military during war, police, or people committing
crimes, often have to fire many times to inflict wounds and
death–multiple bullets for one hit. So the increasing ability to fire a
lot of bullets has likely increased the number killed and wounded in any
one event. And perhaps the ability to do so has increased the
likelihood of doing so? - See more at:
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/12/what-is-the-best-theory-for-the-rise-in-mass-shootings.html#comment-158820760
Seems
to me back in the 50’s, most handguns were six-shooters and often
revolvers (harder to reload?). So I think technological trends have
enabled more mass shootings. My impression is that most people who fire
guns, whether in the military during war, police, or people committing
crimes, often have to fire many times to inflict wounds and
death–multiple bullets for one hit. So the increasing ability to fire a
lot of bullets has likely increased the number killed and wounded in any
one event. And perhaps the ability to do so has increased the
likelihood of doing so? - See more at:
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/12/what-is-the-best-theory-for-the-rise-in-mass-shootings.html#comment-158820760
Seems
to me back in the 50’s, most handguns were six-shooters and often
revolvers (harder to reload?). So I think technological trends have
enabled more mass shootings. My impression is that most people who fire
guns, whether in the military during war, police, or people committing
crimes, often have to fire many times to inflict wounds and
death–multiple bullets for one hit. So the increasing ability to fire a
lot of bullets has likely increased the number killed and wounded in any
one event. And perhaps the ability to do so has increased the
likelihood of doing so? - See more at:
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/12/what-is-the-best-theory-for-the-rise-in-mass-shootings.html#comment-158820760
Seems
to me back in the 50’s, most handguns were six-shooters and often
revolvers (harder to reload?). So I think technological trends have
enabled more mass shootings. My impression is that most people who fire
guns, whether in the military during war, police, or people committing
crimes, often have to fire many times to inflict wounds and
death–multiple bullets for one hit. So the increasing ability to fire a
lot of bullets has likely increased the number killed and wounded in any
one event. And perhaps the ability to do so has increased the
likelihood of doing so? - See more at:
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/12/what-is-the-best-theory-for-the-rise-in-mass-shootings.html#comment-158820760
Seems
to me back in the 50’s, most handguns were six-shooters and often
revolvers (harder to reload?). So I think technological trends have
enabled more mass shootings. My impression is that most people who fire
guns, whether in the military during war, police, or people committing
crimes, often have to fire many times to inflict wounds and
death–multiple bullets for one hit. So the increasing ability to fire a
lot of bullets has likely increased the number killed and wounded in any
one event. And perhaps the ability to do so has increased the
likelihood of doing so? - See more at:
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/12/what-is-the-best-theory-for-the-rise-in-mass-shootings.html#comment-158820760
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Reversion to the Mean
From a David Ignatius column in the Post Friday:
"American politics, like most things, is a story of what statisticians describe as the reversion to the mean"
The heading of the column is "Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric will live in infamy in American history".
I had a senior moment when I read the word "mean": instead of meaning the noun "average" I read it as meaning "unkind".
I think both meanings apply in this particular case.
"American politics, like most things, is a story of what statisticians describe as the reversion to the mean"
The heading of the column is "Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric will live in infamy in American history".
I had a senior moment when I read the word "mean": instead of meaning the noun "average" I read it as meaning "unkind".
I think both meanings apply in this particular case.
Friday, December 11, 2015
Where Are the Favorite Sons of Yore?
FiveThirtyEight has a discussion post on the possibility of the Republicans going into their presidential nominating convention with the nomination still undecided: what's the likelihood and what might happen.
As I read it I thought fondly of the good old days, when states had favorite sons controlling blocks of votes who could wheel and deal in the famous smoke-filled rooms to agree on a nominee. That's how we got President Lincoln, wheeling and dealing. They added so much to the drama of the convention as compared to these days, when primaries and caucuses have allocated the delegates to the candidates.
From the post it seems there will be mass confusion if the balloting goes to a second round--delegates will be released from their pledges but there will be a lack of people who can make deals. We'll see if a Rand Paul who may have a bunch of KY delegates is able to deliver them to a Rubio, or a Cruz is able to steer his delegates to a Kasich (in return for a Supreme Court nomination?).
As I read it I thought fondly of the good old days, when states had favorite sons controlling blocks of votes who could wheel and deal in the famous smoke-filled rooms to agree on a nominee. That's how we got President Lincoln, wheeling and dealing. They added so much to the drama of the convention as compared to these days, when primaries and caucuses have allocated the delegates to the candidates.
From the post it seems there will be mass confusion if the balloting goes to a second round--delegates will be released from their pledges but there will be a lack of people who can make deals. We'll see if a Rand Paul who may have a bunch of KY delegates is able to deliver them to a Rubio, or a Cruz is able to steer his delegates to a Kasich (in return for a Supreme Court nomination?).
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Women and the Draft
Ann Althouse has a post on this subject, keyed to the idea of registering women for the draft, since men are required to register, and women now can fill all jobs in the armed services.
Two of my takes on the subject:
Two of my takes on the subject:
- the draft dates to the days when wars were fought between states with defined battlefields and masses of troops. (See the Revolution, Civil War, WWI and II, Korea.) Even in Vietnam the fight in the later years was between uniformed forces as North Korea fed their regulars into battle. I strongly doubt we're going to see many of those wars in the future. Iraq had one of the strongest armies in the world, and it took 100 hours to defeat it in 1991. So the draft is pointless militarily.
- the draft is a strong symbol of obligation to the nation. All are equally obligated, so women should be required to register.
Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Shared Services and Government as a Platform
GovExec has a piece on this subject by an IBM type.
By the nature of our government (weak executive, decentralized, federal system) we're fated to build such systems incrementally and from the ground up. For example, the National Finance Center in New Orleans is one of the providers of shared services. Back in the day (i.e., 1968 when I joined ASCS) the agency had several ADP (automated data processing, for you whippersnappers) centers. I assume they were initial steps in the process of using computers to support operations. Over time, ASCS closed some centers and consolidated in New Orleans and Kansas City. Over the same time, other USDA agencies were going through the same process, leading finally to USDA taking over the NODPC. So it came to support Federal personnel salaries and benefits for the whole department, and then to provide similar services for other units of the government.
In a way the process reminds me of the way our planetary system evolved, as I understand it, by the gradual accretion of material.
Because this is a slow process I get very envious of Estonia (as I've previously blogged) which apparently was able to do a top-down implementation. To use another metaphor, it's rather the difference between a city like Rome, with an ancient history, and a city like Reston, planned and implemented from scratch within one man's lifetime.
By the nature of our government (weak executive, decentralized, federal system) we're fated to build such systems incrementally and from the ground up. For example, the National Finance Center in New Orleans is one of the providers of shared services. Back in the day (i.e., 1968 when I joined ASCS) the agency had several ADP (automated data processing, for you whippersnappers) centers. I assume they were initial steps in the process of using computers to support operations. Over time, ASCS closed some centers and consolidated in New Orleans and Kansas City. Over the same time, other USDA agencies were going through the same process, leading finally to USDA taking over the NODPC. So it came to support Federal personnel salaries and benefits for the whole department, and then to provide similar services for other units of the government.
In a way the process reminds me of the way our planetary system evolved, as I understand it, by the gradual accretion of material.
Because this is a slow process I get very envious of Estonia (as I've previously blogged) which apparently was able to do a top-down implementation. To use another metaphor, it's rather the difference between a city like Rome, with an ancient history, and a city like Reston, planned and implemented from scratch within one man's lifetime.
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
On Blurring Distinctions: Terrorists and Ethnicity
It seems to me a lot of the discussion following the San Bernadino shootings has talked of Muslim terrorists using the assumption that such terrorists are aliens to the U.S., ignoring the fact that one of the shooters was a native-born American.
On another subject, I'm struck by the growth of Asian Americans in the U.S. Back in the day we had Chinese Americans, Japanese Americans, Korean Americans, and the original Filipino Americans. Then we added Vietnamese Americans, Indian Americans, Cambodian Americans, Nepalese Americans, Bangladeshi Americans, Pakistani Americans, etc. etc. Now the great American blending machine is making them all "Asian Americans", whether they like it or not, ignoring not only the differences among the nationalities but also the differences within the nationalities.
On another subject, I'm struck by the growth of Asian Americans in the U.S. Back in the day we had Chinese Americans, Japanese Americans, Korean Americans, and the original Filipino Americans. Then we added Vietnamese Americans, Indian Americans, Cambodian Americans, Nepalese Americans, Bangladeshi Americans, Pakistani Americans, etc. etc. Now the great American blending machine is making them all "Asian Americans", whether they like it or not, ignoring not only the differences among the nationalities but also the differences within the nationalities.
Monday, December 07, 2015
Terminology and Discussion
Some years ago the right labeled the estate tax as the "death tax".
In the fight over abortion, the terms are "pro-life" and "pro-choice".
Some years ago the left came up with the term "gun violence" to cover both homicides and suicides. Putting both scenarios (as well I assume as accidental shootings) under one label can work in some discussions, but not all
I'm not sure who came up with "gun control". According Google ngram it doesn't really come into heavy usage until the 60's, as one might expect (there were 7 assassinations/attempted assassinations of political leaders from 1963-81).
I'd resist it--we don't talk of "automobile control" when discussing the system of registering cars and testing and licensing drivers. We don't talk of "drone control", when discussing what we're doing about drones. We don't talk of "drug control". "Regulation" might be the more neutral term.
In the fight over abortion, the terms are "pro-life" and "pro-choice".
Some years ago the left came up with the term "gun violence" to cover both homicides and suicides. Putting both scenarios (as well I assume as accidental shootings) under one label can work in some discussions, but not all
I'm not sure who came up with "gun control". According Google ngram it doesn't really come into heavy usage until the 60's, as one might expect (there were 7 assassinations/attempted assassinations of political leaders from 1963-81).
I'd resist it--we don't talk of "automobile control" when discussing the system of registering cars and testing and licensing drivers. We don't talk of "drone control", when discussing what we're doing about drones. We don't talk of "drug control". "Regulation" might be the more neutral term.
Sunday, December 06, 2015
Directives and Policing: the Baltimore Case
Peter Moskos does the Cop in the Hood blog (he was po-lice in Baltimore for a few years before becoming a sociologist). In this post he writes about the "General Orders", the directives applicable to the Baltimore police. I doubt there are many in the world who share my interest in directives, so I'll excerpt a part of his post, talking about the rules of ethical conduct included in the General Orders, which he checked of when he violated one.
Apparently according to the trial of Porter in Baltimore in the Freddie Gray, there was a change to the General Orders on seat belting prisoners issued 3 days before the Gray incident, included in an 80 page attachment to an email (and perhaps the Baltimore police department did not have good email). You'd think with modern technology there'd be a better way, but no one is interested in directives.
I may have missed a few, but of the first 31 rules of conduct, I checked off all but 12 as violated. And I was a good cop, an honest cop. And yet in less than two years on the job I managed to violate the majority of good conduct rules. My favorite was "Section 7: Members of the department, while riding gratis on any type of public conveyance, are not permitted to be seated while other passengers are standing." This is off duty, mind you. And it doesn't say "give up your seat if the bus is full." Nope. If anybody is standing, you must stand.He has complaints similar to those I heard from ASCS employees back in the 60's and 70's: hard to find the relevant material.
Apparently according to the trial of Porter in Baltimore in the Freddie Gray, there was a change to the General Orders on seat belting prisoners issued 3 days before the Gray incident, included in an 80 page attachment to an email (and perhaps the Baltimore police department did not have good email). You'd think with modern technology there'd be a better way, but no one is interested in directives.
Saturday, December 05, 2015
Seedtime of the USDA
"Agriculture, confessedly the largest interest of the nation, has not a department nor a bureau, but a clerkship only, assigned to it in the Government. While it is fortunate that this great interest is so independent in its nature as to not have demanded and extorted more from the Government, I respectfully ask Congress to consider whether something more can not be given voluntarily with general advantage. Annual reports exhibiting the condition of our agriculture, commerce, and manufactures would present a fund of information of great practical value to the country. While I make no suggestion as to details, I venture the opinion that an agricultural and statistical bureau might profitably be organized."
Lincoln's message to Congress, Dec. 1861 from Brad DeLong.
Lincoln also complains about the number of laws Congress has written and their lack of clarity.
Friday, December 04, 2015
Our Growing Economy: GDP Per Capita
Calculated Risk often emphasizes the importance of demographic changes: the decline in participation rate due to the aging of the baby boomers, the decline in immigration.
I thought I'd check the the GDP per capita. This is what I got through a Google search (the image is a bit scrunched here--google it yourself.
What it seems to say is, after the dip of the Great Recession, we're growing the economy on a per person basis quite steadily. Because the level of activity of the overall economy varies with the change in population, particularly net immigration, we see more variance in the economy than at the person level.
Of course, this says nothing about the distribution of economic benefits among the population.
I thought I'd check the the GDP per capita. This is what I got through a Google search (the image is a bit scrunched here--google it yourself.
What it seems to say is, after the dip of the Great Recession, we're growing the economy on a per person basis quite steadily. Because the level of activity of the overall economy varies with the change in population, particularly net immigration, we see more variance in the economy than at the person level.
Of course, this says nothing about the distribution of economic benefits among the population.
Wednesday, December 02, 2015
Socializing Employees: Then and Now
JSTOR is an online database of scholarly articles. They now have a daily blog, essentially summarizing an article.
This post is on the ways in which companies try to socialize employees:
I wonder though, how will a future historian deal with all the benefits which Silicon Valley employees get from their employers. I assume the benefits also encourage loyalty and discourage unions. The open space buildings, like Facebook's new headquarters, definitely encourages certain behaviors in their employees, certain transformations of workers' values. 90 years from now will the historian view such designs with some suspicion?
This post is on the ways in which companies try to socialize employees:
" Littmann writes that many company executives were convinced that foreign-born workers, whose numbers were growing, lacked American thrift, honestly, and industriousness. They responded by introducing measures designed not just to encourage employee loyalty but to transform workers’ values. These “welfare capitalism” measures ranged from toilets and new drinking water wells to profit sharing plans and education programs. By 1926, Littman writes, nearly two thirds of large industrial firms had recreational facilities for employeesThat sounds familiar: in the Triple Cities of southern NY we had IBM, which ran the IBM country club and Endicott-Johnson Shoes, the reason for two of the three cities (Endicott and Johnson City) with the En-Joie golf course. Neither were unionized; EJ had foreign-born employees (East Europeans).
I wonder though, how will a future historian deal with all the benefits which Silicon Valley employees get from their employers. I assume the benefits also encourage loyalty and discourage unions. The open space buildings, like Facebook's new headquarters, definitely encourages certain behaviors in their employees, certain transformations of workers' values. 90 years from now will the historian view such designs with some suspicion?
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
Good Movies: The Spotlight
Just saw Spotlight, an account of the Boston Globe's investigation into pedophile priests and the cover-up. It's very good, so far and as best I can remember, my best movie of 2015. It's the story of getting the story, without being overly maudlin about the subject matter. For anyone who's worked in a bureaucracy, the beginning is a surefire hook (nerves in the office as a new editor arrives), but the movie is always good on the minutiae/
Other good movies which I expect to get Oscar nominations:
Other good movies which I expect to get Oscar nominations:
- The Martian.
- Bridge of Spies
Monday, November 30, 2015
Our German Inheritance--Vampires
It seems that the concept of vampires was imported during the American Revolution by Hessian doctors serving with the Brits. They used vampires to explain tuberculosis, specifically the wasting away. That's from Boston 1775
Racism and Rhetoric
Some ironies:
Some on the left talk of racism in ways which strongly imply whites are bad people. Some on the right talk of a culture of poverty in ways which strongly imply the poor (blacks) are bad people. Neither focus on class or structural causes.
Some on the left dismiss talk of a "Ferguson effect", denying that verbal attacks on policy might lead to violent attacks. Some on the right dismiss the idea that rhetoric attacking Planned Parenthood might lead to violent attacks. (To be honest, Peter Moskos at Cop in the Hood) this idea published first.
Some on the left talk of racism in ways which strongly imply whites are bad people. Some on the right talk of a culture of poverty in ways which strongly imply the poor (blacks) are bad people. Neither focus on class or structural causes.
Some on the left dismiss talk of a "Ferguson effect", denying that verbal attacks on policy might lead to violent attacks. Some on the right dismiss the idea that rhetoric attacking Planned Parenthood might lead to violent attacks. (To be honest, Peter Moskos at Cop in the Hood) this idea published first.
Sunday, November 29, 2015
Why Didn't We Do a Joint Legacy Viewer
DOD and VA have had problems integrating their health care IT systems. Now they've focused on a "Joint Legacy Viewer", which uses the principle of "write locally, read globally".
As is often the case, I think back to the 1990's (old geezers live in the past, you know) and the idea of integrating the USDA farmer service agencies, at least in their IT. At that time our (my) focus was always creating one database to serve the agencies. In retrospect that was wrong.
In 1992 we were demoing a mocked-up viewer of ASCS data. Maybe we should have tried to build on that, rather than going for the big top-down solution.
As is often the case, I think back to the 1990's (old geezers live in the past, you know) and the idea of integrating the USDA farmer service agencies, at least in their IT. At that time our (my) focus was always creating one database to serve the agencies. In retrospect that was wrong.
In 1992 we were demoing a mocked-up viewer of ASCS data. Maybe we should have tried to build on that, rather than going for the big top-down solution.
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Poor History
John McWhorter writes for the Wall Street Journal, being generally critical of campus activity on racism (hat tip: Althouse).
While it's okay, I want to challenge his history, specifically:
While it's okay, I want to challenge his history, specifically:
"What changed the game [to make civil right advances possible] in the Eisenhower era was a combination of television broadcasts of hideous images and the federal government’s publicity concerns during the Cold War."I'd say what changed the game in the 50's was the culmination of the NAACP's litigation campaign establishing equal rights, which led to the activation of idealism among the political elite. As you move into the 60's civil disobedience and the violent reactions to it came to the forefront,
Friday, November 27, 2015
Collective Action Problem: Who Will Bell the Don
The saying goes, " who will bell the cat", which turns out to be based on a fable from the Middle Ages. Dana Milbank wrote about the Republican problem with Donald Trump. It would likely be to the benefit of all the other candidates if he lost support, but if only one candidate attacks him he or she might not attract Trump's former supporters. For some reason I was reminded of this old saying.
Thursday, November 26, 2015
CRISPR, I Knew It
This Technology Review article discusses the use of CRISPR to "engineer babies".
And another article says: "Gene drives are just the latest example of the fantastic power of CRISPR editing to alter the DNA of living things,..." This is in the context of engineering mosquitoes which stop the transmission of the malaria parasite and ensuring they proliferate, raising the possibility of a victory against malaria. But it raises the ethics of changing the biosphere, permanently.
I first posted about CRISPR back in April, which was pretty good of me, though my post was more about the quandary it poses for opponents of genetic modification. That quandary becomes more severe as we begin to see the potential uses of the technique.
[Updated: An Atlantic article on understanding our genes.--hat tip Marginal Revolution.]
And another article says: "Gene drives are just the latest example of the fantastic power of CRISPR editing to alter the DNA of living things,..." This is in the context of engineering mosquitoes which stop the transmission of the malaria parasite and ensuring they proliferate, raising the possibility of a victory against malaria. But it raises the ethics of changing the biosphere, permanently.
I first posted about CRISPR back in April, which was pretty good of me, though my post was more about the quandary it poses for opponents of genetic modification. That quandary becomes more severe as we begin to see the potential uses of the technique.
[Updated: An Atlantic article on understanding our genes.--hat tip Marginal Revolution.]
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Fortran?? Really, Fortran
FCW has a post on supporting Fortran, by "accommodating the legacy code with an open-source Fortran compiler
to help integrate the programming language into a larger pool of
computer languages in supercomputers."
Fortran was old when I was learning COBOL back in the 70's. And most of the people in the US have never heard of either, too young.
Fortran was old when I was learning COBOL back in the 70's. And most of the people in the US have never heard of either, too young.
Monday, November 23, 2015
Appropriating a Cultural Image
Lots of debate over "appropriating" another culture (see Eugene Volokh on yoga). So I was struck by the image here,
which is entitled "Liberty Triumphant or the Downfall of Oppression". (Image reached from this post at The Junto.) It's a political cartoon published shortly after the Boston Tea Party. It shows British and Americans as opposing camps, with the Americans represented as Indians. Excerpts from the explanation/text in the cartoon:
which is entitled "Liberty Triumphant or the Downfall of Oppression". (Image reached from this post at The Junto.) It's a political cartoon published shortly after the Boston Tea Party. It shows British and Americans as opposing camps, with the Americans represented as Indians. Excerpts from the explanation/text in the cartoon:
12. America represented by a Woman is an Indian queen, with drawn bow about to loose an arrow at Lord North.Bottom line: much of our history is appropriated imagery.
Behind her are six Indian warriors. They are:
13. The Sons of Liberty, represented by the Natives of America, in their savage garb. They emerge from the forest, armed with bows and spears, saying “We will secure our freedom, or die in the Attempt”: “ Lead us to Liberty or Death”; “Lead on, Lead on.” Above them the shores of America stretch out from Boston to the Delaware. Seated in comfort on these shores, holding a liberty cap on her staff, a tabby cat curled somewhat incongruously at her feet, is:
14. The Goddess of Liberty, addressing herself to Fame and pointing To her Sons, saying proudly “Behold the Ardor of my Sons and let not their brave Actions be buried in Oblivion.”
Sunday, November 22, 2015
Maintenance May Be China's Downfall Future Nightmare
Although China's economy has slowed a bit, it's still growing, after 35 years of impressive growth. But it strikes me that China will face a big problem down the road. Because their growth has been so rapid, much of their infrastructure is roughly the same age. That means it will be wearing out about the same time, requiring a lot of repairs or replacement. China has profited by the ability to modernize their agriculture, freeing/driving workers to the cities. Meanwhile the 1-child policy has meant fewer children to support, so the ratio of workers to dependents has been high, whereas in the future it will be low.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Rogers
My father's ancestors were heavy on Presbyterianism. I was very surprised to learn that Donald Trump is a Presbyterian. :-( My equanimity was restored by this Atlantic piece reminding me that Mr. Rogers was also a Presbyterian. :-(
Saturday, November 21, 2015
Refugees
Refugees make good renters, according to this piece from Bloomberg, hat tip Marginal Revolution. Some of the upstate New York rust belt cities are finding them an asset--Utica, Syracuse.
And the flowchart for the vetting process, (thumbnail below) from the White House. Makes the old Republican chart on ACA implementation look simple.
And the flowchart for the vetting process, (thumbnail below) from the White House. Makes the old Republican chart on ACA implementation look simple.
Friday, November 20, 2015
Vox, Wikipedia, and Woodrow Wilson
Dylan Mathews has a post at Vox on Woodrow Wilson and race. IMHO he has two errors:
"Wilson himself was the descendant of Confederate soldiers..." According to Wikipedia, his father was briefly a chaplain in the Confederate army.
" Wilson lent The Birth of a Nation his approval by screening it at the White House and reportedly telling Griffith that it could "teach history with lightning.""
The bit about the quote is terrible. Yes, this has been reported, but it's dubious. Mathews links to the abstract of an article which promises to examine the history of the quote. The article is behind a paywall so Mathews should give us the article's conclusion, not an abstract.Other sources question the quote. See Snopes
[updated. See footnote 25 from this source.[
"Wilson himself was the descendant of Confederate soldiers..." According to Wikipedia, his father was briefly a chaplain in the Confederate army.
" Wilson lent The Birth of a Nation his approval by screening it at the White House and reportedly telling Griffith that it could "teach history with lightning.""
The bit about the quote is terrible. Yes, this has been reported, but it's dubious. Mathews links to the abstract of an article which promises to examine the history of the quote. The article is behind a paywall so Mathews should give us the article's conclusion, not an abstract.Other sources question the quote. See Snopes
[updated. See footnote 25 from this source.[
Thursday, November 19, 2015
Three Times Greece or Poland
No, that's not good. The US maternal mortality rate is three times that of Greece or Poland, according to this piece.
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
How Cheap Can Coding Be?
How about one dollar? This FCW piece explains how putting a project out for bid, resulted in a cost to the government of one dollar. Naturally the competitors are upset. I'm not. I do wonder about the rise of contractors and free-lance employees: are they really paying the taxes they should, not only income taxes but social security etc.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Feeling Old With Windows. 10.0
Upgraded my desktop PC to Windows 10. The Microsoft people are getting better at transitions--practice makes almost perfect I guess.
We've come a long way since the days of DOS and the command line.
We've come a long way since the days of DOS and the command line.
Monday, November 16, 2015
Surprising Facts--Vietnam
"At the start of the Vietnam War in 1964, the US and Vietnam had wildly
divergent life expectancy and family sizes; by 2003 they were the same."
From a Guardian article.
I never would have thought this, particularly not in July 1966.
From a Guardian article.
I never would have thought this, particularly not in July 1966.
Cage-Free Hens and Taco Bell
The Post reports Taco Bell has joined the cage-free egg grouping of fast food restaurants. (Note, the math in the piece is flawed, as I take pleasure in pointing out to them in comments.)
It seems I've done a number of posts on cage-free eggs, but without a tag for it; you have to search the blog to find them.
It seems I've done a number of posts on cage-free eggs, but without a tag for it; you have to search the blog to find them.
Sunday, November 15, 2015
EU Terrorism Deaths, Higher in 1970's
I vaguely remember the terrorism of the past, but I'm dumbfounded by this graph, which comes from a Fivethirtyeight post on terrorism.
I recommend the whole thing. "terrorism" has different causes, which is well to remember.
I recommend the whole thing. "terrorism" has different causes, which is well to remember.
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