On election day, the interim count shows Trump and his fellow Republicans running ahead in most states, including the battleground states. But most states will take days to process and count the mail ballots. As the count proceeds there is a very high rate of ballot rejections, and Democrats become more and more concerned.
When the dust settles, Trump is reelected based on accepted ballots. Post-election analysis shows that 7 million ballots from registered Democratic and independent voters have been rejected. Trump's margin of victory is -2.8 million votes, better than his 2016 margin, but the improvement is entirely attributable to mistakes in the mail ballot process.
Oh, in my really bad nightmare, in several key states there's a Florida-2000 style recount, reviewing the rejected balllots.
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