I think the odds for the Covid virus having major impact on American society are low. I might be unduly affected by the experience of the Ebola panic, when a certain person was panicking (initials DJT).
On the other hand, I think the odds for a very screwed-up transition from the Trump administration to a Democratic president in 2021 are about 100-1 (assuming we do in fact defeat the man). The Obama administration started the transition process back in the spring of 2016. Of course they knew they were leaving, but Trump will have problems imagining that process so I don't expect him to approve any advance planning before Nov. 2020. After election day, assuming again he's defeated which I'm not offering any prediction for, he will be in no mood to facilitate any planning, so the process will have to be carried out by career officials, otherwise known to Republican partisans as the swamp.
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