The Post has an article on the outlook for the national debt (it will go up, steeply, although the ratio to the GNP would still be below other countries). But the "vicious circle" which Clinton faced may come back--the debt is big enough that the Treasury must pay high rates of interest to sell its bonds, which means interest payments make up a big portion of the budget, which means it's hard to balance the budget, which means more debt, which means more interest....
This ties into another headline--the nation's governors are looking for a trillion dollars.
One problem of the stimulus package, and one problem of "aid" in general, whether it's foreign aid or domestic, is looking towards the future. To the extent the stimulus builds things, that's good, but it also implies a continuing burden of maintenance. To the extent the stimulus bridges a gap in the states' budgets, that's good, but it also implies the gap will end. Often we see in foreign aid dams and highways are built, but fall into disrepair because there was no system to maintain them. Often we see domestic programs sold as "stop-gap" measures which continue on and on.
So my lesson for Obama is the one which Bush didn't learn--determine an exit strategy before you make a big commitment.
No comments:
Post a Comment