"Maggots Don't Lie"

An all-time great line, from an episode of "Waking the Dead".

The speaker is the forensic scientist, played by Tara Fitzgerald.

A quick google reveals this is what Gene Weingarten of the Post calls a "googlenaught"--something which returns no hits, though there is the meme that "bugs don't lie".

Precision Ag/Internet of Farm Things

Technology REview has a post on the Internet of Farm Things, noting the sensors on field equipment, the use of drones, the release of historical data (soil surveys), etc. and the involvement of big corporations.

"Combining information like localized weather forecasts with details about topography, water levels in the soil, and the seed that has been planted in a field, a company like Climate Corporation will advise farmers about how much fertilizer, an expensive item, to put on a field and when to do so."

There's speculation it will help farmers make a profit. I suspect the real impact will be a further lengthening of the tail--younger, bigger, more aggressive farmers will become bigger (though with a higher risk of failing) while older, smaller, less aggressive farmers don't.  In other words, the history of farming ever since the invention of hoes and seeds.

Forgetting Emotion: David Brooks

David Brooks has a column today reflecting on the decisions to go to war in Afghanistan and Iraq and drawing some lessons.

IMHO he misses two basic issues: confirmation bias, which led us to select data which fed into our preconceptions (i.e., because Afghanistan went well in 2001, it would go well for decades into the future and Iraq would go as well); and emotion, which clouded our judgment after 9/11 in many ways.

Office of Advocacy and Outreach

How effective can the office be if their latest event, at least as recorded on their webpage, is April 2014?

That's a bit cynical, because it's very common to run into webpages which are stale, or dead, where the initial enthusiasm for the Internet has evaporated like the head on an hour-old beer.

What USDA Does--Back to the Beginning

One of the early functions of what eventually became USDA was the gathering and publishing of data, both production and sales data.  Based purely on anecdotal data, one of the big benefits of cellphones in some areas of Africa and India is that suddenly farmers can find out what markets are doing.

In this context USDA touts their new service for grass-fed lambs and goats, reflecting their rising popularity.  I assume the popularity has several causes: a growing market from the immigration of people whose native cuisine features lamb and/or goat meat and rising interest among the foodies in such gras-fed meat plus the fact that lambs and goats fit a small farmer's operation much better than beef or pork.

Best College Food?

Business Insider has a list of the colleges with the best food.  My alma mater comes in 9th, but my wife's comes in 2nd.  Via Marginal REvolution.

Back in the day I worked in one of the dorms--I don't think the co-eds thought we had great food then. But then, college costs have gone up a bit since 1959.

Word of the Day: Decerebrated

James Fallows has declared jihad against the "boiled frog" anecdote, the idea that if you turn up the heat slowly, a frog sitting in a pot of water on a stove will not jump out.

Turns out the original experiment a couple centuries ago had the frog either decapitated or "decrerebrated", i.e. the brain removed or brain function destroyed.

Now who do we know who seems to have been decerebrated?

The Housing Market Has Recovered?

Back in January 2008 I wrote about the pricing  history of a neighboring townhouse in the context of  the housing bubble.  Early in my blogging days I called the bursting of the bubble in October 2005 based on the prices in my townhouse cluster.  (A pause while I admire my foresight.)

The townhouse is up for sale again.  It went on the market the end of April and is now under contract.  According to Zillow, it's going for $50,000 more than its price in 2009, which in turn was $80,000 above its low in 2008. 

But the bottomline is it's still $50,000 below the peak price.

What Is Productivity in Making Movies?

My wife and I use Netflix a lot.  One of the obvious differences between classic movies and today's movies is the length of the list of credits.  Presumably part of that is giving credit to everyone involved.  But I assume, without any proof, that movies which use computer-generated graphics must employ a lot more people.  And even those which don't use CGI probably have more people per minute of film.

I'm currently drawing a blank on the name of the economist who observed that productivity in the services is much different than in manufacturing or agriculture: an orchestra playing Beethoven's 5th is roughly the same size whether it's 1915 or 2015.  I suppose that modern movies are "better" than the classics, though that's hard to prove.  Certainly they're different, sometimes faster (though watch the Cary Grant/Rosalind Russell "His Girl Friday" and you may doubt that), with different plots and plucking different heart strings.  They're definitely suited to our times and our sensibilities--again see Girl Friday for proof.

I don't know how the economists count the wages paid to the people who make say "A Good Year"--the most recent movie we watched on Netflix. (It's a piece of fluff, but very pleasant fluff set in Provence--obviously the moviemakers should have donated their efforts just to be living in such surroundings.) And how does the revenue from the movie count as well?

In the grand scheme of things, I assume economists used to assume that movies have short lives, with the cost of production and the return at the box office happening in a few months, or maybe a year.  Only the rarity like Gone With the Wind and the Disney flicks could be rereleased in later years.  But the truth now is that movies can live forever.  Maybe the money from their longer lives will diminish to the vanishing point, as piracy and innovation reduces the cost of providing the movie almost to zero, but the gain to the watcher remains significant, although not measured by economists.

MIDAS Customer Relationship Roles and Fraud

I've a Google alert for FSA, which produced this article on a case of fraud by an FSA county employee.

It reminds me of a long-ago case of an ASCS WDC employee, a conservation specialist, who stole some money from ACP, but was caught because he didn't know enough about the IBM Selectric and OCR to use the OCR ball when typing out the CCC sight draft.  (Lots of acronyms there--sorry.)  If he had known, he might have stolen more money over a longer time.

It reminds me of another case where fraud was committed using System/36 software, but there was a transaction log of the changes made to basic farm and producer records which allowed the offender to be successfully prosecuted.  I'm not sure what event triggered suspicions, so that a KCMO systems analyst was asked to read the log.

Finally I note from a recent FSA notice on MIDAS CRM training (more acronyms:-;) that WDC specialists are given some authority to change records.

My point? It's easy to assume that WDC people are good, but you know about "assuming".  I hope the MIDAS system design has safeguards against fraud built all the way through the system.   I'm sure by now that is automatic in system design.