Organic Farming in China

Once upon a time, when I was young, the only thing China had was "organic farming".  (Actually, I think the English lord (Howard?) who was an early advocate of organic farming studied Indian or Chinese agriculture.)  Now that some Chinese are rich, "organic" is becoming a fad, according to this Post article.  "Fad" is a little harsh, no doubt attitudes will evolve and people will become more realistic, much as Americans have done.  Maybe Whole Foods will open stores in China, following in the footsteps of KFC?

Metrics for Rallies

From the Post's Dr. Gridlock blog, discussing Metro's problems on Saturday:

"They were figuring on a crowd about the size of the one for the Glenn Beck rally on Aug. 28. That day, about 200,000 more trips were taken on Metrorail than on a typical summer Saturday."

"To say Metro was overwhelmed, that would be more like it. That was no where near enough equipment or personnel to help the people who showed up. Metrorail wound up providing about 475,000 more trips than on a typical Saturday. "

 I've been frustrated by the crowd estimating that goes on for the various events on the Mall.  It's always seemed to me that Metro ridership is a solid indicator with which to compare rallies.  Granted the attendance at different events will make more or less use of Metro and may or may not deter people from using it for their normal weekend activities.  But still the ridership is a solid number, not dependent on aerial photography and the prejudices of the counter.  

Unfair Description of Lincoln's Disaster Program?

Via Farm Policy, Dan Morgan writes about the budget impact of the disaster program using Section 32 funds that was pushed by Sen. Lincoln.  I'm querying this part:

"Nonetheless, farmers will be able to qualify for a check merely by certifying they had a 2009 loss of 5 percent on their rice, cotton, soybean or sweet potato crops last year. Those applying won’t need to supply new documentation to USDA, although their records could be subject to a spot check. Losses of 5 percent on a crop are within the range of normal year-to-year harvest variations, which is why previous disaster programs have generally required proof of losses of at least 20 percent."

I'm not sure the implication is right, though I can't find evidence to the contrary in a fast check of FSA. Usually a disaster program or crop insurance uses a yield, often known as an APH (standing for actual production history) which could be fairly representing an average of normal yields. But in the case of rice, cotton, and soybeans, it's possible the program uses the same yields as used for the big payment programs, which I think have been frozen for years, if not decades. Such yields, if I'm right, would represent much less than current normal production. 

[Note: just because I question the description, don't understand me to be defending the idea of the program. I'm not.]

How Does One Read This--Althouse?

My memory was that Althouse predicted Saturday's Stewart/Colbert rally would have some violence, but this doesn't quite say that:

There is a big rally in Washington this weekend that will draw many thousands of persons. Within that throng of presumed liberals and lefties, there will be all sorts of characters, with their diverse problems and motivations. You don't know who will act up, what foolishly overstated signs they will carry, and what provocations will lead someone with clouded judgment or poor impulse control to do something that will look awful on video. That will happen 3 days before the election, leaving very little time to explain. If that happens, you will want to eat all the words you've been saying about the stomper.

I  think she teeters on the edge of predicting something bad, or something that looks bad, but doesn't quite say it. It's a reminder of how we humans like to believe our friends are good and our opponents are bad, which isn't always the case.

White House Fall Garden

The White House had a fall harvest of their garden recently.  Obamafoodorama had posts, as did the White House blog: 

Armed with large baskets and wheelbarrows, they scoured the garden for peppers, broccoli, tomatoes, lettuce and other fall vegetables. The First Lady joined them, rolling up her sleeves, to dig up enormous sweet potatoes, including a near record-breaking four pounder, and to pick deep purple egg plants.  The children and the First Lady also admired the two pumpkins growing in the garden – just in time for Halloween.

The pictures I've seen look really good. I would nitpick that peppers and tomatoes aren't fall vegetables, what the writer should have said is they were harvesting the final round of tomatoes and peppers and the first round of broccoli and lettuce. I'd also note they're claiming a total of 1600 pounds of food over 2 years.  Last year they claimed 740 pounds, so this year's was 860, which doesn't represent much of an increase, considering the garden was enlarged and they got it planted timely this year.  Of course, the mixture of vegetables may have changed, and they may well have been more systematic on record keeping this year.

Anyhow, they deserve credit, except I haven't seen any evidence the kids are doing any of the work. Unfortunately, the Obamas can't have it both ways: preserve their kids' privacy and yet have them serve as inspirational models for the nation.

The Mind-Body Split

It lives in the headline of this article:

"Obese teens may be lacking in brain size, not willpower"

The headline writer and the researcher miss the possibility that "willpower" resides in the smaller size of the region of the brain the article discusses.  In other words, the theory could be: the obese lack the willpower neurons.

No Guts, No Glory

I'm going to predict that the Republicans take 50 seats in the Senate, and end up flipping a Senator (Nelson or Lieberman) to take control. In that I agree with the Oakton High School in the Post's contest to pick the results of the election.  I'm picking, not with logic or my gut preference, but just because that would make for the most interesting political scene over the next few months.

Dirty Campaign, Not Up to the Standards of Our Forefathers

Via Cliopatria, here's a video which shows how far we have declined.

A Harvard Professor Misses the Point

Professor Mankiw of Harvard wrote a while back about the marginal tax rate he faces and its impact on his decisions on how to allocate his time.  Now he's linked to an article about Keith Richards, who seems to have been a famous rock singer back in the day (my familiarity ends with Elvis) who claims his group moves from country to country in order to minimize their taxes.  Ezra Klein comments on it here.

It seems to me neither Mankiw's original piece nor this example is on point. The classical theory is that the rich, faced with high marginal tax rates, will stop working so hard thereby decreasing the total wealth of the economy.

But in the case of Mr. Richards, there seems no indication that he and his group reduced their output of songs nor were they deterred by the confiscatory British tax rates back in the 1960's.  At most, they've expended effort to travel to take advantage of the lowest available rates.  That might be an argument for standardizing tax rates from nation to nation.

In the case of Mr. Mankiw, he seemed to say he was being dissuaded from giving more paid speeches, presumably spending his time on the research and teaching for which he's receiving a salary from Harvard.

I'd think the high tax rates might have more impact on people who are choosing their occupations--high tax rates might discourage choosing hedge fund operation and encourage teaching math in high school.  That's not a bad trade, IMHO. Or, as it did in the case of Britain in the 1960's and 70's, it could change the location in which work is pursued.  For the minority of people who really find their satisfaction in life from their work, certainly including Prof. Mankiw and Mr. Richards, I remain unconvinced their output is being much reduced by the disincentive of high tax rates.

This Is Sick

Assuming the post is correct, because the crime rate has been failing since the Clinton administration (or thereabouts--no causal relationship implied but Dems are happy to take credit) the supply of prisoners for private prisons is down.  So what should be done to renew the supply: crack down on illegal immigration, as in the Arizona law, which seems to have been pushed by the private prison lobby.