Local Farmers and Ups and Downs

The Post has an article on the problems of local truck farmers--last year was drought, this year not. This bit is significant:

Chef Loic Jaffres of Café des Artistes in Leonardtown relies on local products for his dishes, which requires coordinating with at least three farmers, cooking only seasonal dishes and being ready to change menus at the last minute. Last month, he had to order most of his produce from California and Florida because local farm produce was not ready or plentiful. Lately, Jaffres said, he has been able to rely more heavily on his local suppliers.

And this:

And the big vegetable harvests, the kind that help pay the tuition for the five Turner kids, will probably hit in mid-August, right when many of their high school workers return to school or their customers take last-minute vacations, Turner said. But she's hoping the delay won't cost the family too much in profits.

"I say to my husband, 'Why don't we just go to Atlantic City and gamble?'" Turner jokes. "Farming really is that kind of gamble."

Bubbles and Speculation

What's the difference?

I know some of the economists I follow say speculation has played no role in the rise of the price of oil. I can probably accept that. They've got good arguments, no increase in inventories, whatever. (Actually, the "whatever" is shorthand for saying I'm too old to spend my time analyzing these arguments: they sound good, so I'll buy them, at least tentatively.)

But then I remember the tech stock bubble and the housing bubble. It seems as if in each case people bought, thinking they could resell at a profit. And as long as the bubble lasted, they could. Isn't that the same thing we have with oil--the speculative money has rushed in sensing an opportunity for profit--i.e., buy now and sell for a profit later?

Maybe the point is that such activity is good and proper, as Megan McArdle might argue, it represents the market trying to deal with uncertainty. I just wish the invisible hand wouldn't shake so much as it tries to play chess with our lives.

Tracing Tomatoes

This AP story discusses the problems in tracing tomatoes from dirt to consumer. As I've said before, the desire for safe food doesn't observe the distinction between animal (National Animal Identification System or NAIS) and vegetable.. The further tomatoes advance, the more pressure on NAIS. Although there are those who fight tooth and nail against NAIS, IMHO they'd be better off to fight for graduated id--let the big producers be required to identify their animals, small producers not, unless they sell to a national distributor. It's a bureaucratic failing to apply the same rules to all, even when technology permits making finer distinctions.

A Depressing Sentence for Agrarians

The Post has an article on "The New American Voter". In 1960 political scientists wrote "The American Voter", an exhaustive analysis of the knowledge and characteristics of the voters. Now the subject has been revisited, using the same methodology. (Short summary: Americans are as uninformed about political issues today as they were 48 years ago.)

But, as Libby Copeland writes: "(They had to eliminate the chapter on the agrarian vote, though, because there aren't enough farmers left anymore for a usable sample.)"

Creative Capitalism

John Quiggin at Crooked Timber links to, and argues against, Judge Posner's opposition to "creative capitalism". Posner says that corporate management has a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders to maximize profits.

Seems to me Posner lacks faith in the free market. I'm aware of few suits by stockholders against management for failing in their fiduciary responsibility. I'm reasonably sure such suits would be criticized by the right for reflecting a litigious society and relying on trial lawyers, the running dogs of the Democrats. The market solution is, obviously, sell the stock. So whether Bill Gates and Prof. Glaeser are right or wrong, the market will determine.

Slow Food Nation To Hold Party

Two days in a row--another front page story in the NYTimes, this time on the plans for Slow Food Nation to hold a party for 50,000 people in San Francisco at the end of summer. The idea is for them to break into the mainstream, even partnering with Whole Foods.

The article itself seems fairly even-handed, mixing criticisms of the movement as dilettantish lefty Euro-stuff and descriptions of its efforts. Read it yourself. (I did read the book and wasn't particularly impressed.)

(Personally, for some reason I am reminded of the people who promised to levitate the Pentagon back in 1969, I think it was.)

In a related story, the New Jersey Ramapo tomato is discussed. It's not organic nor heirloom, but it is local to New Yorkers so it's tasty.

Gardening Imperialism

On leaving our community garden plot this morning I saw the gardener who has the plot just inside the gate on the left, was now also handling the plot on the right.

Humans are interesting. The saying is that X only wants his land and the land next to it. That may have been true of American farmers through the years, as well as the U.S. in the 19th century and various dictators and tyrants throughout history. But it also seems to work on a smaller scale. I started with a "quarter-plot", supposedly 10' by 10' some 30 years ago. Gradually I've worked up to a full plot, a nominal 20' x 20' and a quarter plot. That's the limit within the rules. But a neighboring gardener has two full plots and a quarter--because the second plot is nominally in her neighbor's name, not hers. And now I know of a second instance (don't know for sure, but I think he got friendly with the original renters of the second plot, so I suspect his deal is similar--I'll do the work, spend the money, and maybe give you some surplus vegetables.

A persistent reader would see that I see my community garden as a microcosm of the larger agricultural world.

The Problems of Vertical Integration

One way farmers handle risk is by contracting. Poultry producers and seed corn farmers get contracts from the Tysons and Pioneers of the world, reducing their risk. The new phenomena is the Community-Supported Agriculture contract--consumers contract with the grower to take a share of what's produced in return for dollars up front. Truck farming, growing vegetables and fruit, often is less risky than crop farming. Because the dollars per acre are much higher and the number of acres is smaller, you can justify the cost of installing irrigation equipment.

But, as always in farming, there's risk. And this post in Gristmill outlines the effects of floods on a CSA operation. (Remember, a well-established operation may have built up enough loyalty and experience that this wouldn't be a disaster.)

Jan and Tim have had to ask their CSA members to make good on their willingness to share the risk inherent in farming. They suspended their CSA deliveries for one week so that they could focus on weeding and replanting the crops that were damaged. This is not a decision they made lightly; months of planning, numerous calculations, and multiple Excel spreadsheets go into making sure that they produce enough to supply all of their demand consistently throughout the season, without the help of extension agents. There is also the risk that first-time members, experiencing a total bust year right away, will opt-out next year and miss out on the boom years. Jan and Tim plan to compensate their members later on in the season for the current delay, but like the many Midwestern farmers, they expect the impact of the floods to be felt throughout the entire season.

Reality Always Trips Up IT

At the very end of a Politico article recounting the Census Bureau's problems with their IT contractor, comes this concrete example, which strikes me funny:

But others suggest that the real clash may be cultural, and Harris’ success in the defense field has been harder to repeat given the often unique demands of the Census.

For example, there are about 7 million blocks of addresses in the United States, of which about 2,400 have more than 700 addresses per block. This became a problem for the Census when handheld computers used in the address canvassing had trouble processing more than 750 addresses per block, one official said.

Harris said that its equipment can overcome any such hurdle in a “timely, secure and accurate manner.”

“They didn’t [work] in the dress rehearsal,” the official said. “Do we have to specify that it has to work in Manhattan?”

I guarantee some Census people understood the requirements, but they obviously didn't get communicated to Harris (the IT contractor). Another example of how hard it is to pass information across organizational boundaries.

Sign of Status--Locavore on Front Page of Times

I'm showing my age but for me the sign you've made it is when you're on the front page of the NYTimes, which is the case for locally grown food today. (Not personally grown food--those pillars of society who have to work 24/7 can now hire people to tend their backyard garden.)

The emphasis in the article is on the better taste of home-grown stuff, which is true enough, but there's a strong smell of fad hanging in the air around this particular branch of the local food moment.