Learning to Drive

 One way we progress over time is by having role models and acquiring social capital over time. 

I joined a local facebook group devoted to helping Afghan refugees so I could buy items off their Amazon wish list.  Now as a member I get their requests for help--the latest one is for people to help learning to drive and passing the driving test.

That was traumatic for me, so I thought about it.  Both refugees and some people whose families have always lived in urban areas without experience with cars face the same problems:

• first is access to a car 
• second is someone with a driver's license to sit in the passenger seat
• third is experience
• fourth is someone to take you to DMV for the test.

People whose families have drivers and cars have no real problems, but those who don't have a real hurdle to entry into the world of licensed drivers.

Resolving Ukraine

 There's discussion of establishing some sort of international guarantee of neutrality for Ukraine, suggested by the Austrian precedent.  Seems to me there are questions in getting to a resolution:

• how do we assess the balance of forces and the future--who does it favor and how sure are we of our assessment? Do all the parties have the same understanding, and do the publics in the US and EU agree with their leaders' assessment? 
• how does Putin get at least a figleaf for domestic consumption, or does he get more.  The neutrality deal and possible recognition of the two breakaway regions might do it, if Ukraine agrees.
• what happens to the Russian forces now in Ukraine--do they withdraw to Russia?
• what happens to EU/US sanctions?  How do the EU, US, and Ukraine come to a coordinate agreement on time table, etc.
• what about the damages from the war--does Russia pay any reparations?
• what confidence do the parties have in Russia's signature on any agreement? If we don't have confidence do we need to build up Ukraine's military?

It's a complex diplomatic and political situation.

Nostalgia for the System/36

 Brent Orr posted on Facebook about the System/36, which evoked a lot nostalgia from old-timers. Given the amount of cursing from the counties in 1985-90 it's a bit amusing to hear about how reliable the software and system were, etc. etc.  Lots of complaints early on which now faded away in memory.

I must admit it's rather satisfying though, because I and others invested a lot of time and energy, sweat and tears in it.  (I don't remember any blood being shed, but I remember a number of occasions where I drove my employees to tears.) 

Eggs and Dairy

Recent pieces on items of interest to me--the number of dairy farms has declined below 30,000 according to this.  And the average herd size in NY is a bit over 1/10 the size of CA. 

And here's a piece on eggs and inflation which covers different aspects of the industry..

Structural Versus Individualized Causes

 This post at Statistical Modeling suggests structural causes for an increase in traffic deaths, as opposed to the individualized "pandemic malaise" causes.  That is, congestion in traffic reduces speed and rewards safe driving within the design of the streets and roadways. 

I think it's similar to something I saw a bit ago--suggesting that a rise in crime was due to a changing mix of people on the street --i.e., the conservative, risk-averse people stayed away.  

My therapist was deeply impressed by nuclear energy; he called it the self-destruct engine where the chain reaction got out of hand and applied it to individual psychology. 

I'd apply the metaphor of nuclear reactors to now--society consists of older and younger, risk-seeking and risk-averse, conformists, and rebels.  In any situation, whether driving or just interacting in public, patterns of behavior take into account all the variations.  From 30,000 feet it seems the old/conformist/risk-averse component tends to act to moderate interactions, whether it's speed of driving or interpersonal conflict.  When the composition changes by changing the relative proportions of the population, you get a change in society. 

India and Estonia

 Marginal Revolution notes a twitter thread about progress in India, one man's experience with no indication of whether it applies across the very complicated country. 

1a. India is beyond advanced now as a cashless society! From street vendors to shops in the mall, everyone, everywhere is using Google Pay (or something similar).

A sugarcane juice vendor on the Dandi beach gave me a look when the QR code scan failed as I didn't have it set up!

— Dr. Karan Jani (@AstroKPJ) March 9, 2022

He doesn't describe a cause, but I assume the BJP/PM Modi would claim credit.  I'd be curious as to how Estonia compares, being a country which plunged into the e-world years before Modi became PM. 

The Good Old Days

Two prices of long ago came up today:

• the penny postcard. (It went to 2 cents in 1951)
• gasoline for <$.30 cents. This was before OPEC got powerful in the 1970's.

Ukrainian Agriculture

 I'm intrigued by a sentence in a recent Times article about agriculture in the Ukraine. We've become conscious of how important the country is as an exporter of grain.  This was a quote from a Ukrainian farmer, but what was intriguing wasn't the quote, but the description of the farmer--he was Dutch and part of a 1,000+ organization (don't remember but it might have been a co-op or a corporation) running a big farm in the Ukraine.  I wonder how and why he got to Ukraine, and how unique he is.  (I'm aware some Dutch farmers have emigrated to the US for dairy operations.)

Also intriguing are the pictures of the Russian convoy and vehicles which are stalled, or stuck in what looks to be very rich, stone free soil.  

Farmers and Internet

 The post on the Rural Blog reports that 28 percent of farmers with over $500,000 gross income have poor or no internet service. More farmers had a cellphone than had a computer.

Historical Evolution

One problem with historians is the Whig interpretation of history which is really IMO two problems:

1. the belief that the course of history inevitably led to current society, usually through the actions and decisions of men--often white and elite, though there's room for the MLKs of the world, adn
2. the belief that current society is good ("the glorious present").

Unfortunately some current historians throw out no.2 but keep no. 1. This is a tweet from yesterday:

The modern concept of race was introduced to North America to make working or lower class solidarity more difficult. It is still doing that. https://t.co/SpiLOfn6QR

— Sam Haselby (@samhaselby) March 7, 2022

I think the phrasing implies there was conscious intent.  I don't believe that.