Trust

 Nice line from a New Yorker article on AI fighters: 

“There’s a saying in the military,” Peter Hancock, a psychology professor at the University of Central Florida who studies the effect of trust on technology adoption, told me. “Trust is gained in teaspoons and lost in buckets.” 

The fighter pilot has to trust the AI software flying the plane.

I think the dynamic might apply in other areas.  Perhaps in society and government--lots of evidence that trust in various institutions and organizations has declined over the years. Or trust in President Biden has declined in the first year--one big reason is the withdrawal from Afghanistan.  

Though perhaps it's more a question of what we pay attention to: bad events get more attention than good. 

Government IT

 This Politico opinion piece is enthusiastic about the government site for requesting covid tests. I'd be a bit more reserved--it's fast, simple, and works, but the underlying policy it's implementing is simple.  Good IT design works if the policy is good.

The Imperfect Universe

 If we say that perfection equals uniformity, then the universe was imperfect from the beginning.  See this Chris Blattman post:

https://chrisblattman.com/2022/01/20/let-there-be-light/

Thoughts on Inflation--Money as Grease

 Having lived through the inflation of the 1970s and 80s, I've been more skeptical of the promises last year that any inflation would be only temporary.  

While unions are less important now than then, and they were often blamed for inflation, we also have more things indexed for inflation now (like Social Security).

But my own theory about inflation is this:

Before the pandemic the economy was operating smoothly following its usual routines.  Because of the pandemic lots of routines were disrupted.  Whenever there's change or disruption, the resulting friction gets handled by grease, grease known as money.  Don't have enough workers, give bonuses and hike salaries.  Don't trust going to restaurants, rely on delivery and increase the tips.  Etc. Etc. 

That means to me the inflation won't be temporary but will last until we establish new routines, which will take a while.

Are Congratulations Premature--Ordering Tests

 The White House's site for ordering covid tests is up, a day before promised.

Given the problems with the Obamacare website, I'm glad to see it seems, so far, to be going okay (the requirements were simpler by a lot, but the media likely won't focus on it--just success or failure).

Vietnam Photo--Tugboat

Lots of traffic on the river. 
 

What Constitutes "Race"?

 A question raised by recent reading--what constitutes "race"?   Disregarding the issue of whether or not "race" is real, it seems to me our understanding is historical, lacking background.  Specifically:

• African race is really a concept derived from past experience with slaves.  Although in the early years of slavery I understand that enslavers knew and understood difference in the people they imported from different parts/nations of Africa, as time went on those distinctions faded away into one "African" race.
• Today we easily use "Asian American" as equivalent to a "race".  In part that may be a carryover of history: whites treating the "Orient" as one big confusing place with "Orientals" as the race.  
• Today we have the information and the ability to distinguish between Nigerians and Gambians, and between Bhutanese, Nepalese, and Chinese. But having the ability doesn't mean we use that knowledge in our discussions.  

The Problems of Change: No Plastic Grocery Bags

 Fairfax county has implemented a ban on plastic grocery bags, or maybe it's plastic bags from shops?   Anyway, we've invested in a nylon bag for me to use when I'm buying a few items, often during a walk, and a set of 3 foldable bags with cloth sides for the weekly Friday shopping.

But this change which seems so simple turns out to be a bit more complicated.  When I'm shopping, I use the self-checkout station.  It's designed so you identify/weigh each item you're buying, then place it into the plastic shopping bag above the scale.  That works well.  But when I try to replace the plastic bag with my nylon bag, the system detects the weight of the nylon bag and commands me to remove it. So instead of placing the id'ed items directly into the bag, it becomes two steps--one onto the scale, then after I've paid the bill, moving the items from the scale to the nylon bag. 

Using the foldable bags reveals a separate problem--they're designed to fit within the shopping cart, which is fine, but that means they're just a bit too big to fit onto the stand where the checker has her plastic shopping bags, meaning it's awkward for the checker to fill the bags.

My poin is this is symptomatic of many changes--because things are designed as a system, or they evolve into a system (which I think is the case with groceries) of interrelated parts. A change in one part of a system will require changes in other parts. 

Self-Driving Tractors and Equity

 Modern Farmer has a piece on John Deere's self-driving tractor, which really sounds like a package of software and sensors which can be added onto different tractors. Civil Eats has a longer piece on how the rising prices of farm land make it hard for beginning farmers, especially  those of color, to set up an operation.

The two factors work together with others to make a vicious cycle. The higher the cost of entry by buying land and equipment the greater the premium for going big.

The First Inaugural Address

 I ran across a reference to Washington's first inaugural address which roused my curiosity--specifically a reference to the prominent position he gave to what we call today the "Bill of Rights".

So I looked it up.  It's interesting. I don't find there what I thought was indicated by the reference.  There's a lot more attention given to God, his past guidance and hopes for future of "experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people".  But there are no specific recommendations for any of the Bill of Rights.  He does spend one paragraph in generalities--he's for "fortifying rights" while "promoting harmony", but that's as specific as he gets about any aspect of the new government.

Oh, and he won't take a salary or personal emolument.