Continuums

"most things that we think of as categorical are really continuous"

That's a line in this post, What Is a Woman? at Statistical Modeling.  A lot of what they post is over my head, but enough isn't to make for rewarding reading.  The phrase captures a belief I've had. It goes along with believing that most generalizations could be rephrased statistically, as in "Americans believe..." There's a statistical phrasing for "Americans"--is it "the average American", "the young American", "white Americans", "living Americans" etc. etc.  And what they believe can also be rephrased.

The Premonition I

 About a third of the way into Michael Lewis's "The Premonition", which so far describes the development of the pandemic plan in the Bush administration, through the linking of people from different government agencies and a high schooler's science project.

On page 78 he writes:

"Inside the United States government were all these little boxes.  The boxes had been created to address specific problems as they arose.  'How to ensure our food is safe to eat,' for instance, or how to avoid a run on banks'..."  He goes on to describe the people inside the boxes as knowledgeable and talented, developing a culture around the box, but frozen inside the box with little interest in other boxes.  

For me the "box" is a "silo", which includes the "stakeholders" in Congress and NGO's as well as the civil servatns, but the description otherwise rings true. 

Changes in Society--Religion

 As I've mentioned, my paternal grandfather was a Presbyterian minister.  Recently I've been doing a little research using the newspapers.com archive of old newspapers. Before that I'd done a handful of searches in the NYTimes archive. 

There's a big contrast of course between newspapers in the 1890's through 1920's and now.  One hundred years makes a big difference. In terms of religion, the daily newspapers in Wilkes Barre and West Pittston paid a lot more attention to religious events than they do today. As you might expect the Times paid less attention than the smaller cities, but still there was considerable coverage, particularly on a controversy within the Presbyterian church over whether a minister was too liberal. There was also coverage in the PA cities of significant events: the dedicating of a church after its debt was paid off, an address by a minister returned from a visit to the "Holy Land", the departure of a minister for a church in Minneapolis.

These days I can't think of much in religious affairs which is covered in the media, except for religious leaders joining one side or another in political controversies, or splits over issues like the place of homosexuality in the church or the role of women priests.

Times have changed.

Surprising (to Me) Views on Heritability

 Below is the text of a recent tweet.  I found the data in the table surprising, since I had the impression that professors were generally disdainful of the possible influence of genes. I didn't dig into the details of the poll, so the sample might have been small and/or skewed, or maybe sociologists differ from professors in other fields.

I mean you can do the obvious, boring thing and check polls.
For example, this one from 2014, with 81.2% of sociologists granting some heritability to intellectual potentialhttps://t.co/kz0ESPest0 https://t.co/2NJQ7noBFV pic.twitter.com/xc2ahfvHWD

— Siberian Fox📎 (@SilverVVulpes) July 14, 2021

 

Pancho's Life

 In a NYTimes story on the use of a brain implant to convert thoughts into speech. 

Before his stroke, Pancho [who lost his speech because of a stroke after an accident] had attended school only up to sixth grade in his native Mexico. With remarkable determination, he has since earned a high school diploma, taken college classes, received a web developer certificate and begun studying French.

“I think the car wreck got me to be a better person, and smarter too,” he emailed.

Sometimes it seems we have too much choice, too many abilities, and being forced to concentrate can help.  Or maybe that's my Pollyanna streak.  

 

Is Email Effective?

 It turns out a researcher at Illinois State University did a survey in 2019 of Illinois FSA personnel (CED's, DD's, etc.) which concluded:

The USDA Farm Service Agency replaced paper mailings with GovDelivery electronic communication in order to increase efficiency and reduce costs. This case study presents evidence from one state indicating a perception among local FSA officials that GovDelivery does not allow them to effectively serve their constituents. A gap in reliable rural Internet service and low usage of smartphones in place of rural broadband may contribute to the extremely low open rates for GovDelivery email notifications. Findings suggest that electronic-only communication does not allow the agency to effectively engage with farm owners, operators, and managers.

Boerngen, Maria A. “Efficiencyfectiveness of Paperless Communication from the USDA Farm Service Agency.” Journal of ASFMRA, 2019, pp. 27–32. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/26872597. Accessed 13 July 2021.

LBJ Was a Great If Flawed President

 Noah Smith discusses the "War on Poverty"

It's obvious to me that LBJ was the greatest domestic president of my lifetime, excluding FDR since I wasn't aware of him.  

I suspect future historians will decrease the weight they give to Vietnam so he'll rise in their assessment.

Racism and Sex

 The Times had a graphic 3 years ago showing the results of analyzing the earnings of black and white men and women.  The top graphic compared the results for lifetime earnings of men who grew up in the top 20 percent considering parental wealth and neighborhoods.  It showed that such black men were about half as likely to maintain their status.

"Black boys raised in America, even in the wealthiest families and living in some of the most well-to-do neighborhoods, still earn less in adulthood than white boys with similar backgrounds, according to a sweeping new study that traced the lives of millions of children."

What's strangely interesting is that black women maintain their status, doing as well as white women.  That simple fact undermines explanations on both the left and right:

• the right can't argue that blacks are less intelligent when black women do as well as white women
• the left can't argue that simple racism, prejudice against blacks, is the cause.

I hasten to add a couple points:

• black men have always been seen as more threatening than black women, so it makes sense that prejudice against them is stronger.  That's just one factor to consider.
• While the study matched the black and white samples on money and neighborhood, that doesn't mean they weren't comparing apples and oranges. Some things to consider--how many generations of wealth did the whites have behind them, as opposed to the blacks.  They might have compared nouveaux riche to established wealth. They also might have compared the children of black professionals who thrived in the old segregated society but who had to compete in the integrated society following the civil rights movement. 

Metaphor--Society, Nuclear Reactors, and Pandemic

 Long discussion in Post of the possible causes for increase in murders this year in America (not occurring elsewhere if article is right).

Thinking of a metaphor for human society--as a nuclear reactor, with police as the control rods absorbing or not the excess neutrons, thereby damping or permitting greater interactions. 

One might expand the applicability of the metaphor to the pandemic, with the control rods being the vaccines, masks, lockdowns, etc. 

You'd have to expand the discussion to include the rates of the radioactivity of the alternative materials which could be used for a reactor.  (I'd assume that radium, for example, could explode given the right setup.)  

Back to homicide--it seems to me one effect of the pandemic likely has been to change the characteristics of the public, those who are active in exchanges with others.  During the past year the "public" has become younger and poorer as the old and the better-off have been much better able to reduce their time in public.  That might well mean that the remaining "public" is more reactive, somewhat as if the uranium was more highly enriched.  

More on Sin

 I just posted on the similarity I saw between the revivalist/evangelical spirit of the Great Awakenings and the "wokeism" of the current day. 

I ran across this statement in an interview with a black evangelical minister:

Green: One of the things that has really struck me in recent national conversations about race is that a lot of people—especially secular white people—seem to be struggling with something that I can’t help but identify as sin: this recognition that we live in a broken world, and that all of us, by nature, hurt others and do things that are wrong. This seems to be what all of the people who joined anti-racism book clubs are struggling with—the realization of their own sinfulness when it comes to race.

Now I'm struggling a bit: I can buy that people naturally do wrong, sin. I can buy that the "woke" movement is adopting the strategy of the great awakening: convicting people of their sinful nature and asking for reformation.  But I'm not convinced it's an effective strategy for changing society or an accurate description of how things go wrong.  Need more thinking on it.