The Effects of the Recession and Other Stats

Three interesting stats in the news on May 29: one was how much fewer school employees the education system has today, as opposed to 2008; one was how much fewer employees the health system today as opposed to 2008; the third was how little time cars spend on roads.

The Decline of Pension Plans

The Post had an article on the decline of pension plans provided by companies, pointing to Minnesota and Iowa as exceptions to a general decline of such plans.

What stood out to me was that MN and IA weren't exceptional, didn't stand out in any of the maps shown from 1980 to 2014.  In the 1980-94 period they weren't in the top rank of states. It's only in the 2014-19 period that they become exceptions.  So whatever is the cause of their slower rate of decline, it seems to me it's unlikely to be deep-rooted trends, such as labor unions. 

Doubled Payments in CFAP?

I shouldn't do this, because I'm approaching senility and know little about the subject, but I won't let that stop me asking this question: is it possible that some producers and commodities will receive compensation for the same loss under both CFAP and the existing insurance and FSA programs?

1968 and Now--a Subtle Difference

I remember 1968 well, so well I've tried to avoid most coverage of the riots over the past few days.

There is one subtle difference I notice between then and now: the rioters are integrated.  In 1968 the rioters were all black.  Now they seem to be the majority but there's some whites (and perhaps Latinos and Asians, but I don't know that) shown as well.

I think that's a significant detail showing the distance between then and now.

US Pandemic from 30,000 Feet

It seems to me the general pattern of the pandemic spread was:

• the first to become ill and those who spread the disease were the well-off.  By definition if you were traveling between China and Europe, or between Europe and the US, or China and the US, you had money and an upper-middle class or upper class lifestyle.  And those you gave the virus to likely shared those characteristics.
• but second to become ill were the parents and grandparents of the travellers, those in nursing homes and assisted living homes.  My assumption is that most people in such homes are from backgrounds with above-average incomes, even though Medicaid may cover care.
• the final tier of victims were the vulnerable, those in meat packing plants, those in congested areas living in crowded homes, immigrants and the poor.

This is just speculation; I hope I live to see some good social research on the subject. 

I Remember: Space's Early Days

Watched the successful launch today.  Brought back memories of the pathetic early days of our space program, plagued by disasters and pitifully behind the Soviets in throw weight.  America certainly wasn't great in space in those days--1957 to mid 60's.

After Musk had his Starship blow up in the unmanned testing phase, I and I'm sure others of my age thought back to those early days, which increased my concern over today's launch.  But I've long since tried to learn not to obsess over what I can't control.  Today means the Starship event was just another instance of Harshaw rule, and we can all applaud Musk and NASA.

Our Pictures in the Head Are Wrong

Until today I had an image in my mind: people come down with some symptoms, they start to get worse, they go to the hospital to the ICU.  Sometimes they go on ventilators and likely die; sometimes they are able to recover and leave the hospital.  That to me was the normal course of events for people with covid-19.  It's wrong.

I started looking at data today.  One set of data was the rate of death, which turns out to be about .6 of  1 percent.  Then I tracked down CDC data on the rate of ICU admissions.  That turns out to be much smaller.

I should have realized: sometimes people die in the hospital as I was thinking, but sometimes they die in their nursing or assisted living home.  And sometimes they die in their home home. So dying in the hospital is not the majority experience. 

As is often the case,things are more complicated than the images you have in your head.

How Far Do Aerosols Carry?

Josh Marshall at TPM links to an article which seems to take aim at the science behind the 6 foot distance, arguing it's old science and modern instruments can offer more accurate measurements.

I'm no expert--Marshall repeats the suggestion if you're close enough to smoker to smell the tobacco, you're likely too close for covid-19.  That's the sort of layman's measurement which appeals.  Might not be right but appeals.  I'd offer another layman's measurement: in season 3 of the Last King some episodes are set in winter.  It appears they shot in winter, because the exhaled breaths of people and horses are very visible.  Hard to guess the distance traveled, but often likely over 6 feet.

Election Predictions

I was wrong in 2016.  Maybe I'll do better in 2020.

As of Memorial Day, I'd put the odds this way:

• 10 percent chance Trump wins a majority of the 2-person popular vote and wins back the House.
• 30 percent chance Trump wins a majority of the electoral vote and keeps the Senate
• 10 percent chance neither candidate wins with 48 hours of election day, including possibility it goes to the House
• 30 percent chance Biden wins a majority of votes, both popular and electoral but fails to win the Senate.
• 10 percent chance Biden wins a comfortable majority, and squeaks a Senate majority
• 10 percent chance Biden wins a landslide, taking House and firm Senate majority

Bottom line, I think the Dems have more upside than the Reps but it's currently a tossup.

Furman and I: Great Minds

Politico reports that some Democrats, led by former Obama economist Furman, are worried that the fall will see lots and lots of positive economic news, as the economy starts to recover from the pandemic shutdown.  That's similar to my post here.

On the other hand, a FiveThirtyEight survey of economists has a prediction of a relatively slow recovery, a slight majority predicting a Swoosh (i.e., Nike logo) recovery.