Bureaucrats Suck at Prediction

The release of the notes from the Federal Reserve Board's deliberations in 2007 causes one blogger to conclude:

One lesson here is that our public officials, even the hard-working, highly intelligent ones, are far from demi-gods. They have the same blind spots and tendency toward analytical failures of anyone else. Secrecy allows public officials, whether in the world of monetary policy or others like national security, to create a Wizard of Oz like illusion of holding great power, of maneuvering levers with information in hand that mere mortals can only dream of. When reporters interview a high official, there is often a subtext the high official aims to convey: If you knew what I know, you would understand the supreme wisdom of my actions.
Seeing what the Fed officials were saying privately, to each other, in 2007 is a reminder that this isn’t always so, and just because a person has more information, it doesn’t mean he or she has the right answer.

Republicans Will Violate the Constitution?

J.I. Bell at Boston 1775 notes the Republicans are now proposing to violate the Constitution, specifically the 27th Amendment which prohibits varying the salary of Congress people.

Corporate Agriculture Is a No-No

The foodies distaste for corporate industrial agriculture is perhaps the most recent manifestation of our American populist hatred of corporations.  As witness this article and Rural Blog post on already existing restrictions on corporations in farming.  9 states have such restrictions.

Rep. Lucas Says I'm Wrong

I blogged here that 2013 direct payments wouldn't be made.  The Chair of House Ag says they will be.

The same Farm Policy post notes Vilsack is also a bit skeptical.

Pinball Bans

Conor Friedersdorf has a post on the history of banning pinball games.  He finds it incredible.  I don't--because I grew up in a time and place where pinball machines were morally suspect. 

I'm not sure why--poker games used to be banned.  There was a suspicion of games of chance, perhaps on the belief that it was infringing on God somehow.  I note the Amish use chance to choose their bishops--I understand it's because they believe the hand of God governs the choice, or maybe it's just a good way to avoid divisive campaigns for the post.  

Gains in Afghanistan

David Ignatius has a column in the Post today on the positive side of the war in Afghanistan.  Most notably:

"Life expectancy has increased from 44 years to 60 in the past decade; the maternal mortality rate has declined 80 percent; the under-5 mortality rate has dropped 44 percent. The number of primary health-care facilities has increased nearly fourfold."

I'm amazed the gains can be so great in such a short time.

Between a Rock and a Hard Place--FSA

The good bureaucrats at FSA are between the rock of current law (the extension of the 2008 farm law) and a hard place--the certainty that direct payments aren't going to survive this Congress.

Why do I say "certainty"?  Because all parties agree there needs to be more cutting, and direct payments was already on the block last year, so it will be one of the first candidates offered up this year.  According to today's Farm Policy, cutting direct payments was already proposed in a Republican amendment to the Sandy disaster aid package: i.e., the Republican majority wanted to offset some of the disaster aid with cuts to spending and they included direct payments.

So the bottom line is that FSA has to act as if they were going to have direct payments, but we all know farmers won't see a nickel of them.

Vilsack Stays

That's probably good news, since in my experience every new leader comes in thinking he/she has better ideas than the old leader, and at least half the time they're wrong.

Ben Franklin, the Chinese and Soybeans

I understand Ben Franklin imported the soybean  because of  tofu.  Today China accounts for 60 percent of soybean imports.

Suicides and Combat Deaths

According to this military suicides exceeded the number of combat deaths in Afghanistan in 2012. We don't pay much attention to either these days but apparently suicides are up and combat deaths down.  There might even be a relationship: possibly combat creates meaning which is missing when based in the states?  I don't know.