Is the Midwest Real?

 I've seen a few polls online trying to determine which states people would include in  the "Midwest".  There's no unanimity, just a core of states almost everyone would include (those beginning with "I") plus others--is Ohio in, how about western PA? Is Nebraska in or out, etc.?

It struck me this morning that the term "Midwest" has a similar relationship to the geography and society found in that general area as the term "race" has to the people who might be included in a specific "race". 

This is all in the context of discussions of whether "race" is "real"--many on the left would say race isn't real. I think it's real in some sense, but once you start defining it you find the concept fuzzy and sometimes evanescent.

What Is "Food Waste"?

 I'm a bit skeptical of the commonly used statistic that we waste x percent of the food we grow/produce (where x usually is 30 or more).

I'm not sure of the units of measurement--is it calories, volume, weight? It makes a difference.

And what is counted--if considering volume or weight, do you include the skins of bananas or the rinds of citrus?

And what is "waste"? Is corn grown for ethanol wasted?  Are animal parts used for pet food wasted?  

Vaccinations

 Until I read this twitter thread I wasn't aware we now had this many vaccinations for the early years. I wonder how many other shots come up later in life?

 

I post this regularly, and many express surprise.

This is the current childhood immunization schedule. Many childhood vaccines are three+ doses, sometimes a booster.

This is one reason why, unlike earlier centuries, we don't have cemeteries full of children. We've forgotten. pic.twitter.com/H01WqNg7uj

— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) January 27, 2022

Productivity Gains in Genealogy

 My cousin and I were remembering the old days of genealogic research.  I never did any before the internet, but my sister devoted much of a year in 1978 or so to researching, particularly my paternal grandmother's ancestry--the Rippeys.  My cousin started seriously in the late 1980's.  

If you could measure the productivity of research you'd probably count facts--names, relationship, and dates.  In the days of visiting archives and viewing microfilm you might spend days to establish the bare facts for one ancestor.  Now in the days of the internet, of digitized records, and of genealogical databases like Ancestry.com it's possible to trace the ancestry of one person going back to 1850 or before over a weekend, which might include 32 people with lots of details.. 

The increase in productivity is amazing. 

The downside is this: because a genealogy once researched is more likely than not to be valid for recent centuries, there's a diminishing field to explore--at least for white Europeans.  Means new researchers won't know the satisfactions experienced by their elders. 

Trump Fades Away?

 FiveThirtyEight has a discussion on whether Trump is losing strength.

Although I'd like to see him run in 2024 because I think he'd be beatable (a poll today shows him being beaten by Biden by 10 points), I don't think Dems will be that lucky.

Why: he's not developing any platform of ideas, or particularly responding to change. What seems to get him going is his grievances over 2020 which is starting to get old.  If it feels dated now, think what it will feel like in 2 more years. 

Labor Shortage?--Open the Borders

 This post at Econofact notes the drop in immigration, and relates it to our current economy:

Due to increased restrictions on immigration and travel, which began with the COVID-19 pandemic in the early months of 2020, the net inflow of immigrants into the United States has essentially halted for almost 2 years. By the end of 2021 there were about 2 million fewer working-age immigrants living in the United States than there would have been if the pre-2020 immigration trend had continued unchanged. Of these lost immigrants, about one million would have been college educated. The data on labor shortages across industries suggest that this dramatic drop in foreign labor supply growth is likely a contributor to the current job shortages and could slow down employment recovery and growth as the economy picks up speed.

Moving to Subscriptions: Two Class Society

 There seems to be a lot of things moving to subscriptions--free broadcast service is losing out to them. That's true in the blogging universe as well as the entertainment world.

Seems to me that's going to have the effect of widening the gap between classes--those of us who can afford to will subscribe, those who can't will lose out. 

Biden Bypassing Paperwork Reduction Act?

 I blogged a couple days ago about the website to request 4 free covid tests per household.  Vox has a piece related to it concerning "administrative burden"--which is bad. 

Using that term made me think: shouldn't there have been an OMB clearance number attached to the website for the necessary approval under the Paperwork Reduction Act?  After all it's getting information from 10 or more people?

I think my question points to the fact that Congress should revise and update the Act.

Trust

 Nice line from a New Yorker article on AI fighters: 

“There’s a saying in the military,” Peter Hancock, a psychology professor at the University of Central Florida who studies the effect of trust on technology adoption, told me. “Trust is gained in teaspoons and lost in buckets.” 

The fighter pilot has to trust the AI software flying the plane.

I think the dynamic might apply in other areas.  Perhaps in society and government--lots of evidence that trust in various institutions and organizations has declined over the years. Or trust in President Biden has declined in the first year--one big reason is the withdrawal from Afghanistan.  

Though perhaps it's more a question of what we pay attention to: bad events get more attention than good. 

Government IT

 This Politico opinion piece is enthusiastic about the government site for requesting covid tests. I'd be a bit more reserved--it's fast, simple, and works, but the underlying policy it's implementing is simple.  Good IT design works if the policy is good.

The Imperfect Universe

 If we say that perfection equals uniformity, then the universe was imperfect from the beginning.  See this Chris Blattman post:

https://chrisblattman.com/2022/01/20/let-there-be-light/

Thoughts on Inflation--Money as Grease

 Having lived through the inflation of the 1970s and 80s, I've been more skeptical of the promises last year that any inflation would be only temporary.  

While unions are less important now than then, and they were often blamed for inflation, we also have more things indexed for inflation now (like Social Security).

But my own theory about inflation is this:

Before the pandemic the economy was operating smoothly following its usual routines.  Because of the pandemic lots of routines were disrupted.  Whenever there's change or disruption, the resulting friction gets handled by grease, grease known as money.  Don't have enough workers, give bonuses and hike salaries.  Don't trust going to restaurants, rely on delivery and increase the tips.  Etc. Etc. 

That means to me the inflation won't be temporary but will last until we establish new routines, which will take a while.

Are Congratulations Premature--Ordering Tests

 The White House's site for ordering covid tests is up, a day before promised.

Given the problems with the Obamacare website, I'm glad to see it seems, so far, to be going okay (the requirements were simpler by a lot, but the media likely won't focus on it--just success or failure).

Vietnam Photo--Tugboat

Lots of traffic on the river. 
 

What Constitutes "Race"?

 A question raised by recent reading--what constitutes "race"?   Disregarding the issue of whether or not "race" is real, it seems to me our understanding is historical, lacking background.  Specifically:

• African race is really a concept derived from past experience with slaves.  Although in the early years of slavery I understand that enslavers knew and understood difference in the people they imported from different parts/nations of Africa, as time went on those distinctions faded away into one "African" race.
• Today we easily use "Asian American" as equivalent to a "race".  In part that may be a carryover of history: whites treating the "Orient" as one big confusing place with "Orientals" as the race.  
• Today we have the information and the ability to distinguish between Nigerians and Gambians, and between Bhutanese, Nepalese, and Chinese. But having the ability doesn't mean we use that knowledge in our discussions.  

The Problems of Change: No Plastic Grocery Bags

 Fairfax county has implemented a ban on plastic grocery bags, or maybe it's plastic bags from shops?   Anyway, we've invested in a nylon bag for me to use when I'm buying a few items, often during a walk, and a set of 3 foldable bags with cloth sides for the weekly Friday shopping.

But this change which seems so simple turns out to be a bit more complicated.  When I'm shopping, I use the self-checkout station.  It's designed so you identify/weigh each item you're buying, then place it into the plastic shopping bag above the scale.  That works well.  But when I try to replace the plastic bag with my nylon bag, the system detects the weight of the nylon bag and commands me to remove it. So instead of placing the id'ed items directly into the bag, it becomes two steps--one onto the scale, then after I've paid the bill, moving the items from the scale to the nylon bag. 

Using the foldable bags reveals a separate problem--they're designed to fit within the shopping cart, which is fine, but that means they're just a bit too big to fit onto the stand where the checker has her plastic shopping bags, meaning it's awkward for the checker to fill the bags.

My poin is this is symptomatic of many changes--because things are designed as a system, or they evolve into a system (which I think is the case with groceries) of interrelated parts. A change in one part of a system will require changes in other parts. 

Self-Driving Tractors and Equity

 Modern Farmer has a piece on John Deere's self-driving tractor, which really sounds like a package of software and sensors which can be added onto different tractors. Civil Eats has a longer piece on how the rising prices of farm land make it hard for beginning farmers, especially  those of color, to set up an operation.

The two factors work together with others to make a vicious cycle. The higher the cost of entry by buying land and equipment the greater the premium for going big.

The First Inaugural Address

 I ran across a reference to Washington's first inaugural address which roused my curiosity--specifically a reference to the prominent position he gave to what we call today the "Bill of Rights".

So I looked it up.  It's interesting. I don't find there what I thought was indicated by the reference.  There's a lot more attention given to God, his past guidance and hopes for future of "experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people".  But there are no specific recommendations for any of the Bill of Rights.  He does spend one paragraph in generalities--he's for "fortifying rights" while "promoting harmony", but that's as specific as he gets about any aspect of the new government.

Oh, and he won't take a salary or personal emolument.  

Vietnam Photos--Street Scene

 

Let's Index Congressional Salaries

 We've indexed a number of parameters in government.  One perennial problem is the salary of our representatives in Congress.  The "out" party can demagogue the issue against those in power who raised the salary, so salaries don't get raised.  And Congressional salaries tend to limit all other federal salaries (exceptions for special skills).

I've a very simple suggestion to eliminate the problem:  we index the Congressional salaries.  My own preference would be to pay them 10 percent of the salary of the highest paid government official in their state.  In most cases this will be the coach of the college football team.  

Encouraging Cover Crops

 Secretary Vilsack is trying to encourage the use of cover crops by providing incentive payments.

In 1969 I was in North Carolina trying to get a little exposure to state and county operations.  I remember the CED in one county took me on a visit to a sawmill operation.  IIRC they were shaving the logs to create the slices of wood used in making baskets when we visited.  While there he signed up a worker for an Agricultural Conservation Program practice for cover crops on his land. I think he knew the worker, his sawmill job, and his farming operation (perhaps tobacco?) well enough to make that trip.

In the 1970's the Nixon/Butz regime targeted the program using the argument that good farmers would use good farming practices which were profitable; the corollary is that a practice which isn't profitable isn't good and ignoring the issue of differing time periods.

[updated with link]

A Civil War? No

 A rash of stories about the decline of our democracy and the possibility of a civil war.  See this in the New Yorker.

I'm not worried.  We've seen more risky circumstances in the past.  We forget the level of violence associated with labor unionization and the racism of the last century. We should be able to remember the divisions and violence of the late 60's and 70's, but we don't.

Our current polarization is different than in the past, but I don't think it's that likely to lead to wide-spread violence.  

If I'm to make a prediction, I'd say the level of racial/political motivated violence over the next 10 years won't rise above the level of past violence--i.e., homicides won't reach record levels. 

Woody Holton: Liberty Is Sweet

Woodie Holton is a historian who has been active in defending the 1619 Project, which led me to read his new book: Liberty Is Sweet,  If I don't write further on it (it's good), I want to note this nice quote from Ben Franklin, which the Democrats could use:

All Property indeed, except the Savage’s temporary Cabin, his Bow, his Matchcoat, and other little Acquisitions absolutely necessary for his Subsistence, seems to me to be the Creature of public Convention. Hence the Public has the Right of Regulating Descents & all other Conveyances of Property, and even of limiting the Quantity & the Uses of it. All the Property that is necessary to a Man for the Conservation of the Individual & the Propagation of the Species, is his natural Right which none can justly deprive him of: But all Property superfluous to such purposes is the Property of the Publick, who by their Laws have created it, and who may therefore by other Laws dispose of it, whenever the Welfare of the Publick shall demand such Disposition. He that does not like civil Society on these Terms, let him retire & live among Savages.— He can have no right to the Benefits of Society who will not pay his Club towards the Support of it.

From Benjamin Franklin to Robert Morris, 25 December 1783 

[Updated-corrected the author's name.  See this Hogeland post on the related issue.'

Things Change--Biden and Demographics

 

This is the president signing an executive order on customer service. Just a semi-routine ceremony, but I thought the demographics of the attendees were interesting, especially in contrast with the prior administration.

Thanks to Republicans

 Though I may never have voted for a Republican, I think we should acknowledge the principled Republicans who did the right thing--VP Pence for resisting the former guy's pressure and his mob; the representatives and senators who voted to accept the state results on Jan 6; and most of all the mostly Republican administrators of elections in WI, PA, GA, NV and AZ who affirmed the counts.

Vietnam Photos--Street Scene

 This would be another photo from somewhere in Saigon.

Suicides and War

This fact was noted in one of the newspapers but I found this at the USO site. 

In 2021, research found that 30,177 active duty personnel and veterans who served in the military after 9/11 have died by suicide - compared to the 7,057 service members killed in combat in those same 20 years. That is, military suicide rates are four times higher than deaths that occurred during military operations.

Hand Milking

 A while back I ran across a reference to "hand milking", which turned out to what dad would have called "machine milking".  Now the distinction is whether it's a robot putting the teat cups onto the cows or whether it's a human.

I was reminded of this by a Newshour piece on the advance of robots in dairying.