The National Map and National Broadband

 GAO has a report on the problems FCC faces in providing national broadband.There's a new law:

To identify areas that need broadband access, the Universal Service Fund relies on maps of internet accessibility based on data collected from broadband providers. However, this data is not always accurate. For example, some rural areas with low populations are lumped together, and may appear to have access when they do not. This is because providers may report the entire area as having broadband even if only one location has service. The result of this mapping error is that resources to improve internet access do not always match the need.

To get more precise assessments, Congress approved the Broadband DATA Act in 2020. This required FCC to create a better map starting with getting more granular data on the precise locations of homes, businesses, and other places that could make use of broadband. Once this location map is complete, FCC will overlay broadband providers’ service area data to show which locations are served and which are not.

GAO notes the problems in combining available databases, like USPS, Census, and DOT address data.  Many of the problems mentioned were familiar from back in the day when we were trying to achieve consistency across counties and across agencies. 

What struck me was the lack of any mention of USGS.   So I went to their site, I'd not been in 10 or more years, and found the National Map. It's more impressive than it used to be, but obviously doesn't serve as the base for governmental action.  Took a look at Rural Utilities, which GAO also discussed, but they don't seem to have used GIS in their broadband efforts. 

I wonder whether other countries have been more successful in coordinating the rollout of broadband to their rural areas.

COBOL and Our Government

 Interesting paper via Marginal Revolution--a scholar found that inefficiencies and delay in  states still using COBOL to run their unemployment insurance systems hurt GDP.  

I calculate that the failure to invest in updating UI benefit systems in COBOL states caused U.S. real GDP to fall by an extra $181 billion (in 2012 dollars) during this time period. Three primary mechanisms account for the effect I find: COBOL states could be characterized by (1) longer delays in processing claims, (2) longer delays in filing claims, or (3) a larger share of discouraged filers: individuals who do not file because they do not believe that they will be successful in receiving benefits if they file or individuals that believe that the cost to file is too high. 

I've good memories of COBOL; for one thing that's how I met my wife, in a COBOL class.  

While I understand why states haven't redone their unemployment insurance systems, I won't lose the chance to ponticate on the subject.  In an ideal world we'd have a national unemployment insurance program, not 50+ individual state ones.  In an ideal world we'd find the resources to redo software systems more often than every 50 years.  In an ideal world we wouldn't leave money (GDP) growth on the table. 

Rational Consumers and Personal Histories

 Anthony Downs died recently--he was an economist who argued that people assess their choices rationally, particularly their political choices, which often leads to them not voting. 

A recent paper here argues for the importance of personal experience in shaping choices.  A recent article on inflation in the Post got a number of comments--I was struck by the number who recounted their history, or their parents history, with high mortgage rates back in the 1980s.  As for myself, when I bought in 1976, I ended up buying from Gulf Reston, choosing a new townhouse, although one of the last remaining in a 220 unit townhouse development.  Part of the factor for my choice was the 8 percent rate for the mortgage, as Gulf still had access to financing at that rate, although the going rate was IIRC closer to 9.  Rates cited in the comments on the Post piece were double digits.

That personal history makes me more sensitive to the dangers of inflation returning than most of my fellow liberals, who seem these days to believe it can't happen again. 

This isn't inconsistent with Downs theory, but it does fit the NBER paper.

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Identities: Race and Religion

 Two of the more idiosyncratic bloggers I follow are University Diaries, written by Margaret Sotan, a GWU English professor, and The Daily Howler, written by Bob Somerby, a retired schoolteacher and Harvard grad. Both have, as my mother might have said, bees in their bonnet. I say Prof. Soltan's are guns, corruption in colleges, and Haridim. Mr. Somerby's are liberal media (particularly on education and statistics) and philosophy.  

Soltan has a post on an article from Mosaic, an online Jewish magazine, describing education in the Haridim schools in New York City.  There seems not to be much education occurring within the schools.  She calls it a cult, and questions its acceptance within American culture.  

Somerby has posts yesterday and today on a NYTimes Magazine piece on Rebecca Hall and an upcoming movie.  He questions whether an individual belongs to a race, and the nature of the linkage. Is it the one-blood rule, is it the context within which the person grows up, or something else? Is there any reality to race?

Seems to me both bloggers are dealing with issues of belonging and identity. If you view, as I do, the bonds between individual and nation as rather rubbery, stretching and contracting depending on the individual and the circumstances, under what circumstances do the links break.  I've no problem with the Amish Americans, even though they end education early and get some special treatment. But Haridi Americans (is that a term) stretch the bonds more, perhaps simply because they have the history here than the Amish do. But for both the Amish and the Haridi the bond between individual and group are voluntary, though as long as one is a member you're subject to group pressure.

Somerby's subject relates to involuntary bonds--you can't choose your grandparents or the cultural context you grow up in.  At least, they used to be involuntary, entirely determined by the community.  It turns out there is choice: first for those whose color is ambiguous, they can "pass", and now for many who can choose which parts of their history they accept.  (Somerby has some fun with the words "Allen whose great great grandfather...", pointing out she had several  great grandfathers (16 to be specific). 

Great Bureaucrats--Dwight Ink

 It will be interesting to see if the Times or Post run an obit on Dwight Ink.  GovExec is out with this tribute.

Cowen and McChrystal

 Cowen's interview with McChrystal--what struck me:

• he supports a draft, to get away from restricted recruiting from South and Midweat and military children, including women.
• big concern about getting the right people into the military for drones, surveillance, etc. 
• he supports a period of affirmative action (thinking about the history of women in the military) which means accepting the fact that some of the beneficiaries of AA will not be as good as their competitors.
• he still eats only one meal a day.

Other interesting bits there. 

When Did the Holocaust Happen?

I remember reading Dwight Eisenhower's "Crusade in Europe" (now a politically incorrect title) after it came out in 1948.  He describes his reaction to the death camps, including pictures of the survivors.  Then in the 1950's there was the "Diary of Anne Frank". 

But the "holocaust" didn't really occur, it didn't take shape as a narrative with a name and an accepted history until later, as shown in this Google ngram.

 

Buy Yourself a Hair Dryer? No--a Hay Dryer!

 As farmers in the Northeast were reminded this summer, lots of rain means poor or no hay.  It's difficult to make good hay, if you're dodging rain storms to cut the hay and then let it dry in the field (IIRC we'd usually mow one day, rake the next, and bale the third). I remember how dispiriting it was to spend a day cutting a good crop of hay, raking it into nice rows, and then see it rain for days, with dry spells just long enough to get your hopes up and turn the wet rows over to dry out, only to rain again.

Believe or not, and I'm not sure I do, they've invented and are selling a "hay dryer". The post says it's a staple in Europe, but dairymen in the US have only bought a few.  The Europeans argue that high quality hay reduces disease (i.e., listeria) and improves taste of cheese, and also feeds into the EU focus on natural food.  The EU subsidies for farmers may also help in financing. 

How the Sausage Is Made

 Does anyone remember the deals which Nebraska, Louisiana, and Arkansas got, IIRC, when the Dems tried to pass ACA? I don't remember whether the final legislation included the deals; I'm thinking not, but there was a lot of wheeling and dealing during the run up.  That's what I see today.

The Role of Intermediaries

 Started reading Sarah Chayes, "Thieves of State, Why Corruption Threatens Global Security". Early on she generalizes between Eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union and Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban: naive Westerners come into the society, knowing and understanding little, find a "native" who's willing to explain and help and, often, are deluded by the intermediary.  That was her path. She entered Afghanistan in 2001.

Her description ties into an interest of mine I've had for a long time: the role of intermediaries/interpreters.  In American history we start with Squanto (as I first learned, though now scholars write "Tisquantum"). There's a long line of such liaisons, as time goes on often what used to be called "half-breeds", not sure what the correct term is now.  Even before Squanto there was "La Malinche", who was the interpreter, etc. for Cortes in his conquest of Mexico. Sacagawea was another interpreter.  

I suppose the media now serves in a similar role of interpreter/story teller and is similarly distrusted. 

But it's wrong to see it as wily natives scamming naive Americans; it's also the case that wily Americans scam the naive natives.  

Buying Out Coal Miners as We Did Tobacco Producers

 Took me a while but after seeing Alec Tabarrok suggest buying coal mines and discussion on twitter of paying coal miners, I realized there's precedent--we bought out tobacco farmers, or rather their tobacco quotas, back when the FSA tobacco program was eliminated. 

See this ERS page.

Politics and Vaccines

This twitter thread notes the outstanding performance of Puerto Rico in getting their people vaccinated--better performance than any state. It attributes their high rate to the fact their parties all support vaccination--there's no Dem-Rep split.

Zoom and HOAs

 The pandemic has been a shock to many systems, institutions, and habits; some good and some bad.  I think one good one is reducing the friction in social participation.

[For example, take a home owners association (HOA). After I moved to Reston I was automatically a member of the Pinecrest HOA.  As such for some years I participated in the annual meetings, but my enthusiasm waned as my guilt about letting others shoulder the responsibilities for the cluster increased.  So I don't think I've been in an annual meeting this century, much less the monthly board meetings.

But with the advent of covid the board meetings converted to Zoom.  That by itself wasn't sufficient to get me to log in, but a renovation of a sidewalk by our house raised an issue sufficient to get me over the hurdle, to learn Zoom well enough to [what's the term for attending a Zoom meeting?]. I noted this week there were 11 attending, 4 board members and 6 residents, plus the maintenance rep.  

I don't know that I will continue my attendance, but I think Zoom and the stimulus of the pandemic likely has permanently increased the interest and attendance at the meetings.  It makes sense: you no longer have to venture out of the house and join strangers, make small talk, etc.  Instead you just fire up the laptop or cellphone while sitting in your easy chair, and you have easy control over the degree to which you participate.  It's great for introverts, who must be a sizeable part of the population. 

The Worst of Times?

 Lots of attention being devoted to the state of our democracy and the nation  Poor, declining and heading to possible civil war seem to be common analyses.

I'm reading the new Jonathan Alter bio of Jimmy Carter, who cites the opinion of a British visitor in 1971.   At that time, with the Vietnam war going and racial problems stark and the boomer generation not trusting anyone over 30, the outlook seemed grim.  I remember it well. 

On Being Moral When All About

Thinking about judging people in the past for their action or inaction on moral issues, such as slavery, somehow I got to Rudyard Kipling's poem "If", which is about maintaining one's independence of others and circumstances.

The bottomline is that change and independence is hard to do.  Hard individually--think of everyone who tries to lose weight and fails, who tries to break a drug addiction and fails, who tries to stop smoking and fails.  Hard as a society--both liberals and conservatives can and do point to social problems they'd like to change, whether crime, divorce, homelessness, inequality; problems they have tried to and failed to solve. 

Discrimination in Lending Markets

 NYTimes reports on the Paycheck Protection Program, which it seems black business owners were more likely to get loans from online lenders than local banks. Although there's been publicity and concern about artificial intelligence algorithms being biased, apparently in these cases they may be less biased than the banks.  (The bias in algorithms would result from training the AI app using data which was produced by biased non-AI systems, like training an app to assess beauty by using pictures of whites.)

While the report described by the Times is on black businesses, it easily relates to black farmers, including som issues which I may have touched on in the past. Back in the dark ages of the New Deal the precursors of the Farmers Home Administration were authorized to fill a financing gap, to provide loans to farmers who were credit-worthy but had been unable to get loans from local banks. Even before then the Farm Credit system was set up in the Wilson administration for the same purpose. 

The Congressional Research Service has an overview of the farm credit situation.

The Downside of Government Programs

 As a liberal and retired bureaucrat I support government programs.  

But I need to recognize their downside, which relates to the "last mile". When a government sets up a program, it needs to make a connection with the customer/client/citizen who will benefit or whose conduct will be regulated. I've written before about our problems with making that connection.  But I've been writing from a government-centric viewpoint, saying that for example the Treasury has a hard time getting funds to support renters and prevent evictions out.

What about the perspecitve from the "man on the street", as we used to say? There's many problems--off the top of my head some are:

• the person may be "off the grid":''
• without a mailing address (i.e., homeless or on a reservation, etc).
• not have a landline or cellphone
• not have electricity
• the person may be on the grid, but not on the "social-government" grid:
• not interested in the world, not following news, etc.
• not receive information shared by friends or relatives
• the person may be in a position to receive information but:
• doesn't have the initiative, the time, the energy, the ability to research and make a connection 
• is reliant on a caregiver or guardian who's not conscientious
• is suspicious and must be educated and/or sold on the program.

Bottom line--how much effort do we expect government or NGO's acting for the government to expend in order to overcome the hurdles. My impression in the old days of ASCS, SCS, and FmHA was the different agencies had different expectations in dealing with their farmers.  

Even in the best scenario it's likely some people will fall through the cracks, meaning a government program always increases inequality between groups.

[Update: this isn't a government program but the principle is the same--as the article describes, most people are not aware of this alternative abortion option.]

"Gifted Students" and Rural Schools

 New York City is going to phase out its schools for gifted and talented students.  That stimulates discussion on social media, discussion which is largely among the educated classes who might lean Democratic.

It strikes me as an instance where the elite discussion unconsciously disses rural areas. In such areas the schools are smaller and the opportunity to do enhance instruction for gifted and talented students is constrained.  So to rural ears the discussion seems tone-deaf and irrelevant.

Vaccine Mandates

 I gather from this post in the FSA Facebook Group that the issue of complying with the federal vaccine mandate is controversial. I ran across a post somewhere today which indicated the actual process of implementing the mandate was going to take a while.  

I wonder whether with the delta surge declining will the administration actually go through with it.  It sounds as if even when implemented there would be a drawn-out process for penalizing anyone who didn't get vaccinated, so it may become a dead letter. We'll see.  In the meantime there's a lot of angst out there, and it may be creating conflict in small offices where there's strongly held divergent opinions.   

We who support the Biden's position need to remember the human costs of how it's implemented. 

Nondelegation Doctrine

 Volkh Conspiracy has a guest poster writing on the "nondelegation doctrine", the idea that Congress should grant power to the executive only with strict guidelines.

For anyone interested but too lazy to go to the Reason magaizine, here's my comment:

1. “Major policy decisions”? Do we know what that means? There’s a standard of economic impact of $100 million for regulations–but that’s been unchanged since it was first adopted in the 1970s in relation to inflation concerns, not policy.

   Arguable the USDA/Trump decision to spend billions from the Commodity Credit Corporation was a major policy decision. But it wasn’t particularly controversial, because it was too esoteric and there were no significant opposing voices to make a fuss. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/01/21/trump-tariff-aid-to-farmers-cost-more-than-us-nuclear-forces/?sh=4fe7a4966c50

   I suspect the operational definition is an issue about which there’s a big fight between the parties and/or interest groups. I think the reality is such issues don’t get resolved in legislation, just kicked down the road to the faceless bureaucrats who can be blamed if they screw up and/or offend people.

   Reply 

Motivated Reasoning and Farming

The TV weather this morning showed rain moving into southern California.  One of the blogs I follow is Foothill Agrarian, written by parttime sheep rancher and extension service employee.  His most recent post was on fall, his favorite season, and the complicated planning he and his partner needed to do to plan for the upcoming year.  The main complication was/is the prospect of rain or continued drought which impacts the forage available which impacts the health of ewes which impacts the lamb crop...etc. etc.  So the prospect of rain, though I'm not certain exactly where in California he's located, likely cheered him.

Meanwhile, a few weeks ago another farmer I follow on twitter was concerned over the inability to harvest and store rain, given the rains which were dominating the weather in NY.  I remember the years on the farm when we faced that problem, meaning we had to buy hay during the winter and/or buy molasses to put on the hay which we got in the barn only after it had been rained on (cows didn't like to eat such hay without the addition of molasses).

Back in the days when ASCS operated a disaster payment program IIRC the yields we used would be determined by averaging past years' yields, but dropping the bad years.  That to me reflected farmer optimism--the normal yield was always better than the straight historic average of yields. Now I see it as a reflection of what humans do: use motivated reasoning to support their desired outcome.

The Prevalence of Scams

 A rule of thumb: whenever there's money on the table, or "new frontiers" of opportunity, there's people who will exploit the opportunity.

Recent examples:

Apparently R. Kelly had a big entourage.  Other big shots, stars in various endeavors, have their own entourages, including the former guy.

People have been selling fake covid-19 vaccination certificates.

Several reports of people scamming the various pandemic-related stimulus programs. 

Pushimg the Envelope--CCC

 The former guy pushed the envelope of governmental laws and norms across the board.  That included the use of the Commodity Credit Corporation authority in ways which I think were unprecedented.  He mostly escaped criticism and legal challenges because there was no one, no group whose interest would be served.  Farm groups were receiving dollars. Conservatives were blind to Trump's efforts. Members of Congress responded to the interests of their constituents. Good government groups mostly aren't interested or informed about agriculture and USDA.

It seems the Biden administration is following in Trump's footsteps, judging by their announcement of using CCC for what to me seems like a grab bag of goodies.

The Strange Case of "Identity"

 Read, or skimmed, Julia Galef's book, The Scout Mindset.  I'd recommend it.  But what I want to write about is the mystery of "identity". The last part of the book covers how "motivated reasoning", or the "soldier" mindset as she calls it, is tied up with our sense of identity. Her repeated references to "identity" got me wondering when it became so important.

When I was young, I knew my identity was white, Scots-Irish/German, Protestant, farm boy from upstate New York. Child of John and Gertrude, sibling of Jean, with stories of ancestors immigrating to the US. But I don't recall feeling my identity was in question.  

Is it possible that these older sources of identity have faded away as society has changed and market capitalism has evolved so Americans and Brits worry more about identity and start to find it elsewhere?  Google Ngram viewer has been improved since I last used it; you can now search texts in languages other than American and British English.  When I used it to search for use of "identity", it started to be used much more around 1960. 

The pattern was similar for British English, but not for French, Spanish...