One of the theories of political scientists, I think including Jonathan Bernstein, is that voters engage in strategic voting--for example in 2016 they voted for Republican senatorial candidates expecting Clinton to become president. The effect generally and nationally is to swing power from one party to the other.
I've no citations to oppose the theory, but I've another one which may be at least complementary. The book "The Politics of Resentment" argues in part that rural voters feelignored by the political establishments in Madison, WI and DC. This fits with the idea that voting for Trump in 2016 was sending a message to the establishment. What happens when the message is sent? Perhaps enthusiasm wanes.
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