Northern Ireland and Northern Iraq

In the last few days, Rev. Ian Paisley, leader of the Unionists in Northern Ireland, agreed to join Sein Fein in a government. I remember in the 1960's thinking that Paisley's continued existence was a proof for atheism. It shows that time changes many things, including some zealots. (Some of my ancestors seem to have tried to balance between the Catholics and the Protestants in Ireland--see Marjorie Robie's book. But even taking this development at face value, it's another step in a long long process, bridging divisions that go back hundreds of years. It seems as if the Northern Ireland peace process now has enough momentum not to be derailed by spectacular violence, like the Omagh bombing (killed 29).

But we know that the peace process in the Middle East (Palestine/Israel) has repeatedly been derailed by violence (intifadas, the killings of militants, the killing of Rabin, etc.). And we can see that even in Tall Afar, which was held up as a model by President Bush, spectacular violence leads to more violence. With this in mind, even if the "surge" succeeds in subduing violence in and around Baghdad, my guess is the result will be closer to the Palestine/Israel situation than Northern Ireland. In other words, the best Bush and we can hope for is "simmering" violence in Iraq, as opposed to "boiling".