Structural Versus Individualized Causes

 This post at Statistical Modeling suggests structural causes for an increase in traffic deaths, as opposed to the individualized "pandemic malaise" causes.  That is, congestion in traffic reduces speed and rewards safe driving within the design of the streets and roadways. 

I think it's similar to something I saw a bit ago--suggesting that a rise in crime was due to a changing mix of people on the street --i.e., the conservative, risk-averse people stayed away.  

My therapist was deeply impressed by nuclear energy; he called it the self-destruct engine where the chain reaction got out of hand and applied it to individual psychology. 

I'd apply the metaphor of nuclear reactors to now--society consists of older and younger, risk-seeking and risk-averse, conformists, and rebels.  In any situation, whether driving or just interacting in public, patterns of behavior take into account all the variations.  From 30,000 feet it seems the old/conformist/risk-averse component tends to act to moderate interactions, whether it's speed of driving or interpersonal conflict.  When the composition changes by changing the relative proportions of the population, you get a change in society. 

India and Estonia

 Marginal Revolution notes a twitter thread about progress in India, one man's experience with no indication of whether it applies across the very complicated country. 

1a. India is beyond advanced now as a cashless society! From street vendors to shops in the mall, everyone, everywhere is using Google Pay (or something similar).

A sugarcane juice vendor on the Dandi beach gave me a look when the QR code scan failed as I didn't have it set up!

— Dr. Karan Jani (@AstroKPJ) March 9, 2022

He doesn't describe a cause, but I assume the BJP/PM Modi would claim credit.  I'd be curious as to how Estonia compares, being a country which plunged into the e-world years before Modi became PM. 

The Good Old Days

Two prices of long ago came up today:

• the penny postcard. (It went to 2 cents in 1951)
• gasoline for <$.30 cents. This was before OPEC got powerful in the 1970's.

Ukrainian Agriculture

 I'm intrigued by a sentence in a recent Times article about agriculture in the Ukraine. We've become conscious of how important the country is as an exporter of grain.  This was a quote from a Ukrainian farmer, but what was intriguing wasn't the quote, but the description of the farmer--he was Dutch and part of a 1,000+ organization (don't remember but it might have been a co-op or a corporation) running a big farm in the Ukraine.  I wonder how and why he got to Ukraine, and how unique he is.  (I'm aware some Dutch farmers have emigrated to the US for dairy operations.)

Also intriguing are the pictures of the Russian convoy and vehicles which are stalled, or stuck in what looks to be very rich, stone free soil.  

Farmers and Internet

 The post on the Rural Blog reports that 28 percent of farmers with over $500,000 gross income have poor or no internet service. More farmers had a cellphone than had a computer.

Historical Evolution

One problem with historians is the Whig interpretation of history which is really IMO two problems:

1. the belief that the course of history inevitably led to current society, usually through the actions and decisions of men--often white and elite, though there's room for the MLKs of the world, adn
2. the belief that current society is good ("the glorious present").

Unfortunately some current historians throw out no.2 but keep no. 1. This is a tweet from yesterday:

The modern concept of race was introduced to North America to make working or lower class solidarity more difficult. It is still doing that. https://t.co/SpiLOfn6QR

— Sam Haselby (@samhaselby) March 7, 2022

I think the phrasing implies there was conscious intent.  I don't believe that.  

Trustworth Stats?

I'm basically skeptical of the statistics being reported from Ukraine. Too much confusion in the early days of a war--everyone gets excited and succumbs to the temptation of believing what we want  We saw that in WWII particularly with aerial combat in all theaters. 

Willie and Joe--Showing My Age

I was born before Pearl Harbor.  After the war was over I got a compilation of Bill Mauldin's Willie and Joe cartoons, depicting GI's in a picture of combat and service life that was more realistic than anything seen before,  A tweet yesterday evoked this memory.

The Army's War in the Pacific

 Been reading the John McManus  books on the Army's role in the Pacific (so far two volumes,carrying the story through the end of 1944 and the invasion of Leyte in the Philippines).

It's good, not as good as the Toll trilogy on the Navy, with less focus on overall strategy and the home front, but it does do justice to the Army which McManus says has been overshadowed by the Marines.  The first book is critical of MacArthur, the second book not so much.  In the controversies between Marine and Army generals he usually takes the Army side, but seems to be fair in assessing the good and bad of the leaders.

I was struck by the fact that the US had overall commanders--Nimitz and MacArthur, while the Japanese apparently always separated navy and army chains of command. We had friction between Marine and Army forces which apparently didn't exist for Japan.

The Future and Ukraine

Dan Drezner had a piece in the Post on the use of sanctions. As I understand him, he's afraid that we're imposing sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine more out of emotion than a plan, whether to contain them or to coerce them, and how and when the sanctions might be lifted. I commented there:

 Do we essentially call for unconditional surrender (of all of Putin's goals) or are we willing to offer a fig leaf? More importantly, can we and Zelensky remain united--there's no guarantee that he will see things the same way we do. Are we willing to fight on until the last Ukrainian fighter is killed? Is he?

Part of the problem I didn't make clear in my comment is we've got multiple decision makers-- Zelensky on the one hand and the "West" as represented by Biden on the other.  (And that's oversimplifying--while NATO and the EU and the rest of Europe seem united now, that's not necessarily the case in the futre.)  

I think we can predict that our high regard for Zelensky today will fade as we and he come to realize we have different priorities and aims.