Bad News on Inflation

 I saw Paul Krugman yesterday on Newshour admitting he'd been wrong about inflation.  Today we got another bad report.

I never wrote this, so take it with some salt, but I believe back in the day, when MMT (modern monetary theory) was the hot topic that I remembered back in the middle 60's when economists believed they had solved the problem of balancing growth and inflation.  They hadn't.

I'm tempted to say that it's a generational thing--humans become overcome by hubris, they push too far and meet trouble and learn to pull back, but as time goes on those with scars die off and the stage is set for another round of hubris.

Age-Appropriate Reading

 I read everything in the house, almost.  There were some volumes from my grandfather's library I passed on--lives of John Calvin and John Knox, Carlyle, and others. Mostly my parents allowed me to read anything. 

I do recall one discussion of whether I was old enough to handle a novelized version of the Donner Party. I don't remember the author--it was a poet/novelist written in the 1930's or so, not listed in the wikipedia article.  Not sure whether mom or dad was more hesitant, nor whether they came down with a decision.  I think it was unresolved, so I went ahead and read the book.  Not sure how old I was, young, pre-teen almost certainly.

This was sparked by the discussion of book-banning, particularly Bob Somerby's defense as in this post.

While I've some sympathy for his viewpoint, in my ideal world we'd trust kids, librarians, and teachers to do the right thing.  There's a chance, a small chance, that the wrong person reading the wrong text too early in their life may be adversely affected.  But the chances are small and the adverse effect small as well. 

All of the above discussion relates to voluntary reading, but I think the same logic argues against against mandatory reading and for the ability of kids and parents to opt out of one reading and into another. 

Amazon Base Salary Twice That of Congress

The way I understand this, is that $350,000 is the top salary Amazon can offer to new hires.  That's twice the salary for a member of Congress.

 

Self-Driving Cars

Sunday in the print editions: 

The Post had an essay by Mr. Zipper on self-driving cars, arguing they won't save lives (at least not 94 percent of current fatalities) and won't be good for the environment.

The Times has an opinion piece by Mr. Manjoo praising the Cadillac Escalade, including its self-driving package.

Both writers seem to agree that by making driving less onerous self-driving cars will encourage more driving, more time spent in cars, and therefore hurt the environment.

I'm still looking forward to more advances, though not ready to spring for an Escalade.  But my need and interest in driving seems to be waning, particularly in the context of the pandemic. 

Expropriation/Appropriation of Culture/Ideas

 Reading Johnson's book "The Broken Heart of America"--early on (page 26) he refers to the expropriation of Indian knowledge by the Lewis/Clark expedition.   Somehow it struck me wrong.  Checking the definitions of "expropriation" and "appropriation" it seems their meaning has been concerning property or assets.  

Johnson applies it to intellectual knowledge and intangible assets. To an economist I think the distinction rests on what is "excludable", which intellectual property isn't as a rule. IP is shareable.  It's appropriate to refer to the expropriation of land or the appropriation of personal property, but to my mind not appropriate to expropriation of IP or appropriation of culture. 

That leaves a question of what label to use instead of cultural appropriation--imitation or emulation or copying, perhaps adding an adjective like "superficial". 

A note from a biography of Josiah Wedgwood I'm reading--there's a quotation from an eminent writer in the 1760's pontificating that the classical past (which was being revealed by excavating Pompeii and the tours of Europe by young English men) should be considered the common patrimony of all, so emulation and imitation was fine.

Douthat in the Times

 Ross Douthat had an op-ed which interested me. He argued both conservatives and liberals have divisions, basically along two dimensions: trust in people and trust in expertise.  

Conservatives have over their history distrusted democracy, the mob. That continues today in attempts to limit voting. What's newish is conservative dislike of experts, of science.  Education used to be a conservative force but now both science and education are associated with change.

Liberals have a history of expanding the right to vote, which continues. But since the Progressive era they've developed a belief in educated elites, particularly science and social science.

The tensions on both sides make for instability. 

(The above is what I took from the essay without going back to doublecheck my summary.)

Douthat's analysis works for me as a liberal. I don't agree with some liberal positions, but I maintain my faith in science.

Budget -Wise We're Better Off?

 Congressional Budget Office does estimates of the effects of laws and proposed laws on the economy. Such estimates get media play.  What doesn't get media play is corrections:

In its March 2020 projections for fiscal year 2021, CBO underestimated revenues by 15 percent and overestimated outlays by 4 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit in 2021 was more than the actual amount by 3.9 percent of GDP.

AFIDA Holes

 This points to possible problems in how FSA enforces the AFIDA legislation. I once was responsible for that.  I hoped someday to integrate AFIDA reports into the general system for updating land ownership once we got a common geospatial database with SCS.  

I retired before that happened.  It sounds as if it hasn't happened since.  Just another silo.

Farm Efficiency--Big Versus Small

 This post says big farms are more efficient when capital is important; small farms when labor is more important.

It makes intuitive sense: if you're doing small plots with hand tools, the expertise and attention of the tool wielder is important.  If you're doing thousands of acress with equipment worth hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, the ability of the tractor driver is less important than getting the most use out of the equipment. 

Views of USDA--From Outside and Inside

This report says the federal government doesn't get good marks for its services.  But USDA is one of the highest ranking departments.  Meanwhile I remember seeing the results of a survey of employee satisfaction within different agencies--IIRC USDA scored near the bottom.

Why? I'd suggest part of the answer might be this: farmers served by FSA seem usually to have close relationships with their local office--that was my impression early on in the 1970s and it seems to be continuing now, judging by the Facebook FSA group.  But the local employees seem often to be unhappy with the national office; again I think it was true in the 70s and remains so now. (More accurately I think the employees are ambivalent, so they might easily voice discontent on a survey while being more balanced in a face-to-face. 

Granted FSA is only a small part of USDA but the dynamic might well work for most of the agencies.  My guess anyway.