The Amount of Outstanding Farm Loans

 Trying to find out the total dollars of farm loans FSA/CCC has on the books, which might be subject to the provisions for debt forgiveness payments under ARPA.

There's this quote:

FSA farm loan programs provide an important safety net for producers, by providing a source of credit when they are temporarily unable to obtain credit from commercial sources. The majority of FSA’s direct and guaranteed farm ownership and operating loans are targeted to underserved populations such as beginning farmers and socially disadvantaged producers, who generally have had a more difficult time obtaining credit to maintain and expand their operations. In 2019, FSA provided 32,240 direct and guaranteed loans to farmers and ranchers, totaling more than $5.7 billion

And this chart:

Both from this 2021 Budget document. 

I'm not sure what to make of the data--it seems that the forgiveness might cover more than half the outstanding loans.

More on ARPA

 According to the Post article yesterday, the Farm Bureau estimates the cost of the 120 percent payments to indebted socially disadvantaged farmers will be $4 billion.

One of my frustrations is the difficulty of finding  current CCC financial data.  IIRC once I found it over in the Treasury website, but it's definitely not a user-friendly process. 

I would like to find the basis for the estimate--what's the total outstanding debt for all farmers in the categories eligible for the forgiveness payments?  Just sent USDA a request for the data--will see if they can respond.

FSA and American Rescue Plan Act Provisions

 Looks to be a couple provisions of the American Rescue Plan  which impact FSA:

• a provision for paying 120 percent of outstanding indebtedness for loans made or guaranteed by USDA to socially disadvantaged farmers or ranchers.  My guess is it might be easy to administer, assuming FSA records currently record a farmer's status as disadvantaged or not.  The problem will be with those with outstanding loans who aren't disadvantaged, and will yell at the counter clerk  program tech.  Need to have the numbers of the local offices of the Congressional representatives handy.
• the other provision provides $1 billion for things which seem to be outlined in the Sen. Booker and Sen. Warnock "Justice for Black Farmers" bill.  

There is provision for $47.5 million for expenses (which won't all be FSA, but some might be.

Interest Rates Are Rising

I don't know how many more billions of dollars taxpayers might have to pay because the 10-year note rate has jumped up recently.  Probably just rounding errors now, but as someone who lived through the inflation of the late 60's through early 80's it's a bit disturbing. 

Am I Getting More Conservative?

 Maybe I am.

Consider these issues:

• I'd prefer to see bipartisan support for big initiatives, like the child allowance in the new stimulus bill, which Noah Smith describes as the most important feature of the bill. What I'm afraid is the Republicans get control of Congress in 2022 and undo what Biden's doing now, leading to more loss of faith in the capacity of government to do good things.
• I've some reservations about various changes made or proposed in the student loan program.  There's inequity there when people, like my wife, paid off her student loans and others may get breaks of various kinds. (Looking back, I think we'd have been better off if we expanded the number and maximum amounts of Pell grants.)
• I don't like "defund the police".  I'd rather see a boost in police funding paired with a program to move some responses to 911 calls to social services. IMHO you won't get police cooperation and buy-in without some sweetening for them.
• I'm not really on board with trans-women competing with cis-women (hope I have the terminology right), at least not when they're able to win.  Again I'm concerned for the tone of society, more than the philosophical approach to rights. 

Mobility in the Past

 Just finished "Kindred: Neanderthal Life, Love, Death and Art".  As I've written before, it's more technical and detailed than I needed, but interesting.  I come away from it, as I did from an earlier book on DNA results from testing homo sapiens from various archaeological sites, knowing the images I grew up with are wrong. 

Among the differences what stands out is the variety and mobility of past humans. In the case of Neanderthals they moved a lot, being hunter-gatherers and therefore following the game.  Lots of new science in the field, both DNA and other. Tracing tools back to the beds of rock where the stones originated from shows a lot of movement.  Looking at the isotopes of minerals in teeth which record diets and locations also show movement.

One of the things harder for me to grasp is the idea that 2 percent of Euro-Asian genes are Neanderthal.  I take the scientist word for it, but my mind skitters away from trying to figuring out the steps of the analysis which would reveal that.

Interesting--a footnote reminds that African genomes are richer in variety than Euro-Asian genomes, because of a bottleneck we experienced during the exodus from Africa. 

On an unrelated note, except it's mobility, Tom Ricks in a NYTimes book review notes that a Roman captain served both in the Middle East and in England.

Basic Income Test

 Annie Lowrey has a piece in TheAtlantic about a basic income experiment in Stockton, CA. Using private donations, some individuals got $500 a month to spend as they wished.  She asserts it worked out well.

"Stockton has now proved this [a hand up is better than a handout] false. An exclusive new analysis of data from the demonstration project shows that a lack of resources is its own miserable trap. The best way to get people out of poverty is just to get them out of poverty; the best way to offer families more resources is just to offer them more resources."

I like the idea of experiments, but it's hard for government to run them. I like this one and the result, but I'm put off by the first two sentences:

Two years ago, the city of Stockton, California, did something remarkable: It brought back welfare.

Having lived through Reagan's demonizing of welfare queens, and the attacks on ADC for disrupting parental relations, I've a knee-jerk reaction to "welfare".  Similarly, when Sen. Romney proposed his Family Plan I had an initial positive reaction, but then when I saw someone comparing it to welfare I grew concerned. My mind's still open on the issue, but judging by my gut I fear for the viability of such proposals.

Neanderthals Weren't Dumb

 Reading the book "Kindred: Neanderthal Life, Love, Death and Art".  I've some reservations about the level of detail and the rather literary preludes to each chapter, but the gist is eye-opening.  Science has learned so much more about Neanderthals than I realized.  Modern technology has enabled very detailed reconstructions.

The bottom line is the species knew what they were doing. 

That doesn't mean that Gov. Abbott knows what he's doing.

Signs of Spring

 Crocus blooming along Reston parkway, school buses on the roads, hints of buds on trees, onion sets planted in garden.  Sun streaming into my windows (which are really patio doors used as windows. 

Maybe Trump Was Right?

Right about unnecessary government regulations, that is. 

My wife and I had to set up a new account with our bank this week. The number of questions one has to answer has gone up (like are you closely related to any corrupt foreign leader?) and the number of pages of legalese which one has to ignore has expanded.  No doubt this keeps a number of lawyers in full employment, but it seems foolish. It seems as though there should be an easier way.

Having vented my frustration, I realize what we have here is an arms war between competing sets of attorneys--both sets aiming to obtain the most money they can for themselves and their clients, with one set on the side of right and the public interest and the other set on the side of enterprise. 

And no, Trump wasn't right. He represents the extreme of one side of the arms war.