The Infection Chain

As I've said before, the progress of the pandemic seemsto have been from the most mobile and therefore whitest and wealthiest people, seeding various countries, then within the country a progression down the chain from most connected to least connected with the most vulnerable. Think of it as a forest fire, with the progression being governed by which unburned spots are most closely connected to burning spots, and the most flammable material in each spot.

So California and Washington had early cases. The Northeast was hard hit. Then things seemed tosubside for a bit, but there were warning cases in meat packing and nursing homes, etc. 

Then things moved south and west, as the networks hooked up to the vulnerable.  This is my explanation for California as well--the first wave there was the mobile upper class, the new wave is hitting Latinos and African Americans.

There's been a learning curve, particularly in the health professions, so we're in better shape thanwe were on May 1, though we now realize we weren't in as good shape as we thought then.

Expanding CFAP to More Crops

USDA announced additional crops would be eligible for payments under CFAP.  Here's the revised list of specialty crops.


I pity the FSA offices which have to implement this.  I remember what ASCS got into the first time the disaster program was expanded to cover specialty crops, though I don't remember when it was.  1986, 1988? maybe. KCMO slapped together a quick software package to allow us to take applications and compute the payments. But we had no experience with the crops which meant some stumbles in the software, and even more stumbles in administering the program in the counties.

The only good thing is acreage reporting is almost done, at least in theory, but if you look at the FSA Facebook page you know the employees are feeling the strain.

How To Deal With the Powerful

Politico has a piece on a presentation by the CIA person who usually briefs the President.

One of the things which fascinate me is what Erving Goffman called "The Presentation of Self inEvery Day Life".  It's a classic. Part of it is how you deal with a person more powerful/higher ranking than yourself.

I like to apply this to the relationship between slave and master, or to use today's language, the enslaved person and the enslaver.

The Case for an Operations VP Candidate

As Biden's lead in the polls grows, it seems to me there's less importance for him to choose a VP candidate who can add enthusiasm to the ticket, specifically a black or Latino.  The closer we get to the election it seems the more we can count on his opponent to provide enthusiasm.

So maybe there's a case to be made to go in another direction--a VP who would be great at improving the way the government operates.  That would represent a long-term investment in government capability, which is the prerequisite if liberals are to succeed in their ambitions for government programs.

If you accept the premise, it seems to me that two possibilities stand out: Elizabeth Warren and Gina Raimondo. The case for Warren seems obvious to me; the case for Raimondo can be built based on her track record, specifically with covid-19, as laid out in this Politico piece.

[update--to clarify "operations VP"--it's the sort of role Biden performed with the stimulus act, and Gore performed with Clinton (though I'm not really a fan of Gore's effort.

Writing and Statues

On twitter a historian denied any obligation for historians to fight for the preservation of statues.  That got me thinking about the difference between statues and historical artifacts--mostly written ones, but also the sort of things which wind up in museums.  Some thoughts:

• as I wrote yesterday, raising a statue is an act of power, signaling the influence of the group behind it and their importance in the community (I'm assuming that usually only a minority which feels strongly are pushing a statue). A statue is an assertion of meaning occupying a public space.  The power embodied in a statue ebbs and becomes stale as the years pass, but the statue is always there, somehow imposing on our attention to public matters. Though as I've written, statues can fade into the general landscape, no longer noticed by the majority of the public; a thorn only to a minority with reason to be aggrieved.
• written artifacts can sometimes be more obnoxious than any statue--consider Mein Kampf or the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.  But such writings cannot intrude themselves on our notice once the context of their creation is gone.  I mean, presumably most Germans were somewhat aware of Mein Kampf by 1938 or so, to that extent it was a signal of the power of Hitler and the Nazis, but post 1945 it's stuck on library shelves, fodder only for historians and a few on the far right. 
• other artifacts, say quilts or old episodes of I Love Lucy, also lose their power and their meaning as the years increase since the time of creation.

So what is the justification for a historian not to fight for preservation of a status in its original setting? To me the key is the occupation of a public space. It's reasonable and no violation of a historians pledge to the past to say that statues should be removed from public spaces.  And just as historians have no obligation to preserve all buildings they have no obligation to preserve all statues somewhere..  Every statue has some value, considered as an object with history, but we can't preserve everything.

Power, Statues, and Signalling

An article on the Columbus statue in front of Union Station in DC this morning provokes these thoughts:

The ability to erect statues is a signal of the power of the people behind the movement.  In the case of Union Station, it was the power of the Knights of Columbus back in the day.

In the case of statues commemorating Confederate generals, it was the power of upper class white Southern women (UCWSW).

In the case of naming forts it was likely the power of the Congressional delegation in the state, responding perhaps to UCWSW.

Now, the ability to take down statues is a signal of the power of the Black Lives Matter movement (construed broadly), power to move the needle and gain white support.

[Updated: by signaling I mean the action is not very important by itself to most people, is quite important to some.  For leaders of the movement, it's a way to gain influence.  If the KofC can persuade the powerful to emplace this statue, they must be listened to when they want X, Y or Z. If BLM can persuade the powerful to change the MS flag, then they must be listened to on other issues.  When non-legal processes are used, there's an element of physical fear involved as well, as there was in dumping the tea in Boston Harbor.]

At What Point Does Covid-19 Become Another Flu?

President Trump notoriously dismissed Covid-19 early on as just another flu.  That was quickly disproved.  I wonder, though, whether there is a point at which influenza and Covid-19 are really comparable.

Apparently flu kills from 20,000 to 80,000 people a year.  20,000 divided by 50 weeks equals 400 a week, 80,000 would equal 1600 a week.  Deaths are just one metric.  Another consideration is severity of illness and longevity of effects.  My impression is that on both counts Covid-19 has been worse than flu in that regard. 

[Updated:  a senior moment--confusing weeks and days--100 deaths a day would mean 36,500 deaths a year.  If we're currently averaging 5-600 deaths a day, we still have a long way to go.]

The idea of comparing covid-19 and the flu was discredited by its extensive use in the early days of the pandemic to minimize the dangers of the covid-19.  But now it seems to me that we're focusing exclusively on covid-19 and, perhaps, losing some perspective on the overall picture.

Housecleaning and Statue Removal

There's someone named Marie Kondo who advises on decluttering.  (Our house is cluttered, so no I've not followed her advice, but I'm sensitive to the issue so I recognize the name.)

I think she's the one who advises only keeping stuff which speaks to you. I wonder if that advice would work as applied to statues?

Personally, few statues speak to me.  The Andrew Jackson in Lafayette Park does, but likely only because of its associations with my wife.  The Lincoln Memorial does.  The Gaudens' of Clover Adams.

Some would speak to me if I were visiting, but not as part of my daily routine. Those statues for which I know some background, like the TR statue at the American Museum of Natural History, might speak to me. (Though I'd likely interpret it as partially a reference to TR's "Rough Riders" though Wikipedia doesn't mention any blacks in the regiment.)

So by the Marie Kondo test, I'm fine with removal of most of the statues. 

The National Garden of American Heroes

One of the items on the agenda of Biden's transition task force is, I hope, a listing of Trump executive orders to be reviewed, possibly modified, and perhaps revoked in the early days of a Biden administration.  One of the top items is this July 3rd order for creating the National Garden of American Heroes.

It's nonsense.  The listing looks like an abbreviated one from this "Conservapedia Gallery of American Heroes"

The Last Mile Problem in Government--AMS

One of the problems of our government is the threads connecting national legislation to local effectiveness are often broken. 

I think I just found one such case today.  The USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service has a program called "Farmers to Families Food Box".  Briefly the concept is to buy food, mostly perishable, which can't find a market under our pandemic conditions, and provide it in boxes to needy families. I'm thinking the boxing is a new idea being pushed by Secretary Perdue.

AMS has experience buying perishable food and providing it to schools for school lunches, tribes, etc.etc. But this is a new program using money appropriated by Congress (and perhaps CCC funding, not sure).  So AMS ran a new bidding process to find more vendors capable of handling the boxing and distribution to nonprofit organizations..  (I'm not sure how much overlap between the vendors in the new program and those AMS has dealt with before.  I do know there has been some scrutiny of some vendors with allegations political influence was involved in awards to new vendors.) 

So my picture is, you've this established network of AMS procurements, intermediaries, and recipients.  But now you have new additional money, additional intermediaries, and hopefully new recipients.  Where the threat is broken in my metaphor is the last mile problem--connecting new recipients with the old or new intermediaries.

If I understand the program correctly, which is a problem, AMS and the administration are making the assumption that existing nonprofits can make the connection.  But a question on the FSA employee group Facebook page raised the question.  Checking the AMS sit they have a list of the approved vendors who are getting the food and boxing it.  But there is no national database showing which nonprofits the vendors are dealing with. So the question is, if Jane Doe in Mississippi is interested in getting a box--who does she contact?  As far as I can see, she has to use the phone book to locate a nonprofit which might be  distributing the boxes.