One conclusion from the Mueller report is that prof. Neustadt, author of the classic book on Presidential Power, wins again.
His thesis was that presidential power was not automatic, not like starting a car and driving it, but it was a matter of respect and reputation. Certainly Trump has little of either, hence his attempts at obstruction were foiled by resistance of his subordinates to carrying out his orders. Nixon had his "Germans", Erlichman and Haldeman, who'd carry out his orders. Not so Trump.
Thursday, April 18, 2019
Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Paul Coates
I followed the blog Ta-Nehisi Coates hosted for several years and read his first book, a memoir. So I found this interview with his father quite interesting, particularly as he's about my age.
Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Controlled Environment Agriculture
Quartz has this entitled "The Urban Farming Revolution has a fatal flaw. (see the source at the end of this post).
I'm sorely tempted to write "I told you so", since I've been skeptical of vertical farming and similar efforts in cities. On a fast read it seems the drawbacks are: cost of urban real estate, cost of energy for lighting, low nutritional content of the greens usually grown, and the premium prices charged. The study was of New York City "controlled environment agriculture" (CEA) farms, which gives me a new term for a label.
I would think some of the factors are more serious than others. Roof top farming in NYC might be susceptible to competition from other uses, like leisure and recreation I'm not clear how much cheaper and more efficient LED lights can be, but I'm hesitant to rule out further innovation. The ability and willingness of people to pay premium prices is likely growing.
In a larger sense, CEA is what farmer have been doing since the dawn of agriculture: arrtificially changing the environment for plants and animals to grow faster, better, more disease free, etc. etc. Outside the city it looks as if "precision agriculture" (PA) is the approach taken.
Will the CEA and PA sets of innovation start to merge at some point? Stay tuned.
Source: Goodman et. al. “Will the urban agricultural revolution be vertical and soilless? A case study of controlled environment agriculture in New York City.” Land Use Policy. 2019.
I'm sorely tempted to write "I told you so", since I've been skeptical of vertical farming and similar efforts in cities. On a fast read it seems the drawbacks are: cost of urban real estate, cost of energy for lighting, low nutritional content of the greens usually grown, and the premium prices charged. The study was of New York City "controlled environment agriculture" (CEA) farms, which gives me a new term for a label.
I would think some of the factors are more serious than others. Roof top farming in NYC might be susceptible to competition from other uses, like leisure and recreation I'm not clear how much cheaper and more efficient LED lights can be, but I'm hesitant to rule out further innovation. The ability and willingness of people to pay premium prices is likely growing.
In a larger sense, CEA is what farmer have been doing since the dawn of agriculture: arrtificially changing the environment for plants and animals to grow faster, better, more disease free, etc. etc. Outside the city it looks as if "precision agriculture" (PA) is the approach taken.
Will the CEA and PA sets of innovation start to merge at some point? Stay tuned.
Source: Goodman et. al. “Will the urban agricultural revolution be vertical and soilless? A case study of controlled environment agriculture in New York City.” Land Use Policy. 2019.
This piece was originally published on Anthropocene Magazine, a publication of Future Earth dedicated to creating a Human Age we actually want to live in.
Monday, April 15, 2019
Community Effects: Measles Versus Eastern High
The outbreaks of measles have focused attention on community effects. When a high percentage of the community has been vaccinated, there's herd immunity--the virus can't maintain itself. So the choices made by individual families affect the whole community.
By chance the Post Sunday had a good article on the choice faced by a white family on Capitol Hill Their teenage daughter was in an integrated DC intermediate school,but now is facing the decision of which high school to attend. Does she go to Eastern, the local high school, almost entirely black (like the intermediate school) with known problems and the possibility it's on the upswing, or travel across town to a selective public high school.
On the one hand the daughter gets greater certainty of a good and challenging education with less risk of a bad experience; on the other hand she might be missing a unique experience and, more importantly, she contributes a bit to the community effect.
Recent research on upward mobility has shown the importance of community effects: the better the community by our customary standards (two-parent families, etc.) the better everyone does, particularly the poor.
I'm not an anti-vaxer, but I think it's true a measles vaccination carries a risk, a very small risk, to the individual. But the risk to the individual is outweighed by the benefits to the community if everyone gets vaccinated, or at least in the neighborhood of 95+ percent. So I've no problem in saying the individual should be vaccinated, and mandatory vaccination laws are good. But why would I, and the liberal parents of the daughter in the Post article, hesitate to require her to attend her neighborhood school? I think the answer is the probable cost to the individual is much higher and the probable benefit to the community, in the absence of many others in the same situation is minimal, meaning the tradeoff is unfair.
While that calculus seems to be convincing, it leaves the $64,000 question of how do we get positive community effects: how do you get a herd, a crowd, all moving in the same positive direction?
By chance the Post Sunday had a good article on the choice faced by a white family on Capitol Hill Their teenage daughter was in an integrated DC intermediate school,but now is facing the decision of which high school to attend. Does she go to Eastern, the local high school, almost entirely black (like the intermediate school) with known problems and the possibility it's on the upswing, or travel across town to a selective public high school.
On the one hand the daughter gets greater certainty of a good and challenging education with less risk of a bad experience; on the other hand she might be missing a unique experience and, more importantly, she contributes a bit to the community effect.
Recent research on upward mobility has shown the importance of community effects: the better the community by our customary standards (two-parent families, etc.) the better everyone does, particularly the poor.
I'm not an anti-vaxer, but I think it's true a measles vaccination carries a risk, a very small risk, to the individual. But the risk to the individual is outweighed by the benefits to the community if everyone gets vaccinated, or at least in the neighborhood of 95+ percent. So I've no problem in saying the individual should be vaccinated, and mandatory vaccination laws are good. But why would I, and the liberal parents of the daughter in the Post article, hesitate to require her to attend her neighborhood school? I think the answer is the probable cost to the individual is much higher and the probable benefit to the community, in the absence of many others in the same situation is minimal, meaning the tradeoff is unfair.
While that calculus seems to be convincing, it leaves the $64,000 question of how do we get positive community effects: how do you get a herd, a crowd, all moving in the same positive direction?
Saturday, April 13, 2019
On Recognizing Faces
Saw a piece in the Post about people remembering when schools in Arlington integrated. Several interesting points, but I liked this one:
"He chuckled as he recalled his reaction to so many new faces. “The only white kids I knew were the families on TV, like ‘Leave It to Beaver,’ ” he said. “They talk about all black people look alike? It took me months to distinguish one white face from another.”IMHO facial recognition is a combination of experience and capability--that's my story.. I regard myself as having problems with both, so it's reassuring when I find others have similar problems, confirming my narrative.
Friday, April 12, 2019
Samuelson and Education
He concludes education programs have failed, because they haven't changed the gaps between ethnic groups.
Logically it's possible that they've been successful, in that in their absence the gap would have widened. It's possible over 60 years the amount of knowledge to be imparted has increased a bit. A simile: education is like rowing a boat up a river. Over the years we may have improved the oars, gotten the rowers more fit, etc., but meanwhile the flow of water down the river has increased, so the boat stays in roughly the same place.
Logically it's possible that they've been successful, in that in their absence the gap would have widened. It's possible over 60 years the amount of knowledge to be imparted has increased a bit. A simile: education is like rowing a boat up a river. Over the years we may have improved the oars, gotten the rowers more fit, etc., but meanwhile the flow of water down the river has increased, so the boat stays in roughly the same place.
Thursday, April 11, 2019
Corporate Transparency: Canadians Are Ahead of Us
This article shows that at least one Canadian province is going where the US ought to be (and FSA is getting to): recording the real people behind paper entities.
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Do Toads Climb?--One of Life's Mysteries Solved
Was cleaning oak leaves out of one of our window boxes when doing so revealed a stone, rather slivery in appearance. Strange, I thought, I've only put potting soil in the box in the past so how did a stone get there?
Looked closer and found it wasn't a stone, but a toad, immobile. That's even stranger, I thought--how the hell did a toad get there as the window box is 8 feet or so off the ground. Dropped by a bird, maybe, and finding refuge under the leaves?
Anyway, I cleaned out the leaves, realizing the toad would then have no hiding place from hawks or whatever and no cover from the sun, which is getting stronger. So I got an empty plastic seedling pot and put it on its side in the window box.
An hour later the toad had retreated to the pot, so I could put my hand over the top and carry toad and pot outside and release it.
It turns out toads of various kinds can climb, some are tree toads and some just plain garden toads.
Virginia even has a society devoted to amphibians.
I'm going to say my "toad" is this guy:
Looked closer and found it wasn't a stone, but a toad, immobile. That's even stranger, I thought--how the hell did a toad get there as the window box is 8 feet or so off the ground. Dropped by a bird, maybe, and finding refuge under the leaves?
Anyway, I cleaned out the leaves, realizing the toad would then have no hiding place from hawks or whatever and no cover from the sun, which is getting stronger. So I got an empty plastic seedling pot and put it on its side in the window box.
An hour later the toad had retreated to the pot, so I could put my hand over the top and carry toad and pot outside and release it.
It turns out toads of various kinds can climb, some are tree toads and some just plain garden toads.
Virginia even has a society devoted to amphibians.
I'm going to say my "toad" is this guy:
Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Good for IRS
In the midst of a not very good week, I was pleased by an IRS website.
It turns out that you can get your old tax returns from IRS, or at least the data from them, in case your house burns down or computer file systems crap out on you. To do so you go to an IRS website which gives you options: online, phone, or mail. I of course chose on-line and was impressed by the process. They obviously require data to confirm you're who you say you are, but the process of getting it is easy and well-thought out. (The only glitch was they weren't able to recognize a smartphone using Google FI--I assume there's a semi-valid reason for that.) You end up creating an on-line account, which judging by the username which was available isn't all that well patronized.
If I had any ambition left after this week I'd suggest to Sec. Mnuchin that he have Treasury Direct scrap their log-in system, which hasn't changed for years, and have them use the IRS system.
I might write my Congressional delegation telling them I deeply oppose the legislation which would ban the IRS from creating a free online tax system, as reported by ProPublica. I'm almost tempted to support Sen. Warren for president, since she proposes to beef up IRS.
It turns out that you can get your old tax returns from IRS, or at least the data from them, in case your house burns down or computer file systems crap out on you. To do so you go to an IRS website which gives you options: online, phone, or mail. I of course chose on-line and was impressed by the process. They obviously require data to confirm you're who you say you are, but the process of getting it is easy and well-thought out. (The only glitch was they weren't able to recognize a smartphone using Google FI--I assume there's a semi-valid reason for that.) You end up creating an on-line account, which judging by the username which was available isn't all that well patronized.
If I had any ambition left after this week I'd suggest to Sec. Mnuchin that he have Treasury Direct scrap their log-in system, which hasn't changed for years, and have them use the IRS system.
I might write my Congressional delegation telling them I deeply oppose the legislation which would ban the IRS from creating a free online tax system, as reported by ProPublica. I'm almost tempted to support Sen. Warren for president, since she proposes to beef up IRS.
Friday, April 05, 2019
Combining Organizations
I tend to think of the outcome of two organizations combining as based on physics, sort of like two objects in space. An asteroid colliding with the earth doesn't affect the earth's path through space much at all. Why shouldn't the same be true of two companies, like Perdue and Niman Ranch, which combined a few years ago.
Turns out humans aren't solid brainless objects, at least not always. John Johnson has an interesting piece on the results of the combination of a big poultry producer and a smaller organic venture.
Turns out humans aren't solid brainless objects, at least not always. John Johnson has an interesting piece on the results of the combination of a big poultry producer and a smaller organic venture.
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