The End of the GOP?

I think I've seen a little discussion that the Trump candidacy will lead to/means the end of the Republican Party. 

I disagree, based mainly on my memory of the 1964 election and its aftermath.  First I'd like to say there's little evidence that 2016 will be as one-sided as 1964.  While Goldwater was a more attractive personality than Trump, we forget how much LBJ was respected if not loved in 1964.  He had rallied the nation after JFK's death and had accomplished things which seemed unlikely.  So HRC is no LBJ.

After the landslide there was, IIRC, a lot of discussion that it was the end for the GOP,  Areas which had never voted Democratic, like my upstate NY district, had gone for the Democratic candidate, not only for President but for Congress. That's how we got the super-majority in the Senate.  Cointon is not going to beat Trump by upwards of 20 points; more to the point she's going to be very lucky if she even has a bare majority in the Senate and squeaks by the in House. So the Republicans would have a good base to rebuild from, much better than the 1965 Reps.


It's arguable that the divisions in the party are greater and more firmly based now.  It may be true, though I'd bow to the political scientists on that.  Certainly the divisions on free trade and immigration, and between social conservatives and populists seem sharp.  But in the long run, the pursuit of power is a great consolidating force.  So I'd predict the GOP would rebound rather quickly after a Trump defeat, just as it began to in 1966.

Specialization and Taste: Wheat Terroir and Gertrude Stein

Modern Farmer has a long piece about wheat, specifically people trying to de-commoditize it, by creating niche markets.  "Wheat is wheat is wheat" is not true, contra Gertrude Stein's roses, it turns out, if it's a landrace which can carry a certain aura, and which is grown organically.  It's rather like my supermarket's cooler--you wouldn't believe all the different beers now stocked.  It's the "long tail" of the internet, where there's more and more variety available in books, but the average sale per book is smaller and smaller (think of all the self-published books).  It's a reflection of the rise of the upper class, not just the 1 percent but the 5 or 10 percent who have the money to buy the varietals.

I know I've commented before on the amount of differentiation in our consumer society, probably using the example of jeans, but I'm too lazy in the heat to search out my previous words of wisdom.  Trust me--that was a much much better post than this.  :-)

Williamson and I Together?

Not often that Kevin Williamson of the National Review and I agree on anything (not that he knows I exist), but this post, entitled "Calm Down Doom Monger" is pretty good. See my earlier post.

The Saving of America: Immigrants

My mother would have claimed rural America as the heart of true America (even though she was a Bronx girl, her family moved to upstate NY a couple years after she was born).  If she was right, and she wasn't, then immigrants are saving America. From the Blog for Rural America:

"Using recent U.S. Census data, Johnson discovered that, where there is growth in rural areas, minorities account for 83 percent. The Hispanic population in nonmetropolitan areas grew at the fastest rate of any racial or ethnic group during the 1990s and post-2000 time period."

Feminists--Move to Rwanda

I was surprised by this: "Post-conflict Rwanda today has the highest rate of female legislative representation in the world – 63.8 percent of its legislators are women – and has held that spot since 2003"  A scholar argues that when African countries emerge from conflict their women gain power.

The Culture Which Is British (not USSR or USA)

With apologies to Marginal Revolution where Tyler Cowen has posts beginning: "The Culture Which Is...", here's a link to a Politico piece on how the UK handles Doomsday: if it's Armageddon and the government is decapitated, what does the prime minister want the commanders of its nuclear deterrent to do?  Very interesting, as well as the quick comparison with the USSR and USA's plans for the same contingency.

Food Waste

Was talking to the Starbucks guy in my local supermarket and he got onto the subject of food waste.  Apparently they have guidelines for the value of the food they toss each day: $800 for produce, $400 for other (including meat).  Food is tossed for the usual reasons: produce is ugly and not chosen so it spoils, other items pass their sell-by date.  According to the guy, who seemed to be knowledgeable, but after all he's just a guy, homeless people from the neighborhood utilize some of the tossed goods, but there was no indication of a food pantry or similar setup.

One can dream of a day where the flow of information from shelves to store to management to customer will be so good that prices can be adjusted to reflect advancing age, hopefully allowing more consumption and less waste. Sometimes I suspect that's already happening with the really perishable produce, like blackberries and raspberries, but maybe not.

Ginsburg and the Election

One of the concerning things to me is the possibility of a repeat of 2000.  Trump/Clinton has changed some of the normal election dynamics and my hunch is that the changes increase the likelihood of one candidate winning national popular vote, and the other candidate winning the electoral college.  (My idea being that Trump may suppress margins in the red states but do well enough in blue and purple to squeak through.) If that happens, the lawyers will find a way to litigate.

Jonathan Adler at Volokh speculates that Justice Ginsburg has now take steps to ensure there won't be a 4-4 split in the Supreme Court on any election issue.

Ignorance in Congress

" I can say that it’s actually quite common for members of Congress to have no idea what they’re talking about."

A quote from Matt Yglesias in his post apologizing to Gov. Pence for being too hard on him. 

When new to DC Matt was amazed that Pence didn't understand "moral hazard" back in 2005 debates on SS privatization.  Since then he's learned his lesson, Congress doesn't do policy well.  

His piece is a good read on the structural problems with Congress.

1968? Not Even Close

I lived through 1968, walked through the riot in DC following MLK's assassination, watched the anti-Vietnam protests, got mugged at the local Safeway, had my car broken into in the garage of my apartment building, mourned RFK's assassination, and finally voted for Hubert Humphrey.

There's really no comparison between 1968 and now.