Deaths by Terrorism, Past and Present

Now we're in a relative lull in deaths by terrorism.  That seems an absurd statement, but it's the truth, as shown by this chart.  What's the difference between the past (i.e. 1970's and 80's) and now?

We forget how active the IRA groups and the unionist opposition were on the killing front.  We forget the Palestinian groups were terrorists in the 70's and 80's.  We forget the Basque groups.  We forget the small leftist/anarchist groups.  Put them all together and they caused more death than ISIS and Al-Qaeda.

Perhaps it's just our amnesia. It's not the motivation--murdering because of religion was arguably what the IRA did--were they radical Catholic terrorists?  I think not.

More likely it's familiarity--most of the groups had a history and their terrorism was something we were more accustomed to so it somehow seemed less dangerous.  And importantly, most of the groups seemed to have a defined target, where today the ISIS terrorists seem to be attacking "Western civilizations". 

Bottom line for me: chill and think historically.

Meanwhile 125 People Died Today of Drug Overdoses

Currently 36 dead in Brussels.

Peter Moskos notes the drug overdose death rate.

I link the two.

Demagoguery Opportunity

FCW has a piece on moves on Internet Assigned Numbers Authority.  I would not be surprised to see politicians demagogue this as ceding US authority to those untrustworthy people outside our borders.

Amish Businesses

I've long been fascinated with the Amish, particularly from reading Prof. Kraybill's book on them. I was on a task force in the 70's with the CED of Lancaster county, who commented on her dealings with the Amish.  IIRC they didn't participated in farm programs, at least not the production adjustment ones, but I think they did with the conservation cost-shares ones.

This is an article on a Kraybill talk, set up by this:

"Over the past few decades, Lancaster County’s Amish have undergone a “mini-Industrial Revolution,” Kraybill said. High land prices plus a population explosion limited farming opportunities for rising generations, fueling a turn to carpentry, small manufacturing and other enterprises.

Today, there are more than 2,000 Amish businesses in the Lancaster area, Kraybill said. Fewer than one-third of local Amish households still rely on farming as the primary source of income."

He describes the factors in Amish culture which have fed into their entrepreneurship.  It's a lesson to those of us who wonder about how society/culture operates--things are complex. 

The Amish, much like the Hasidic Jews, the Mormons and some Native American tribes also lead to reflection on what is the meaning of "America"--what can cover all the variety we see.

Trader Joe's Parking Lots

Via Marginal Revolution, a short piece on the economic logic of Trader Joe's tiny parking lots.  (We shop there occasionally.)   Bottom line: almost no one refuses to shop at Trader Joe's because they spend a little time finding a spot, or walking to the store from the adjacent street.

Court Gamesmanship

Having just seen my prediction for the Presidential elections go up in flames with Rubio's withdrawal, I forge ahead with commenting on the Supreme Court.

I seems to me that Obama has this strategy:
  

• taking the Senate Republicans at their word--they won't vote to confirm any appointee now.
• Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee and she's likely to beat Trump.
• if she beats Trump, there's some chance a nominee who's not a liberal icon and who's a little older will seem more palatable to the Republican Senate after election day.  That's particularly true if the new Senate has a Democratic majority.   

Paul Meringoff at  Powerline, a conservative with whom I almost always disagree, seems to support my theory, writing this morning: " Things might look different in September, if Hillary Clinton is 25 points ahead of Donald Trump in the polls and the Republicans are headed towards losing the Senate. In that event, Garland might look a lot better."

We Used to Call It Block-Busting: Same Tactics, Different Group

Back in the 1960's we used to call it "block-busting": real estate agents using the fear of blacks to get homeowners to sell out.  In our enlightened modern times, it's similar tactics, but now it's Orthodox Jews in the Toms River, New Jersey area.  See this Bloomberg  piece, hat tip Marginal Revolution.

The key difference is, of course, the aims of the group: blacks in the 60's wanted the American dream-- better homes and better schools and saw integration as a way of getting it; Orthodox in the 10's want the American dream--independence of outside control and see segregation as a way of getting it.

Unbelievable Fact in the Times

The NYTimes has a piece on who supports Trump, including this table:
"correlations are shown in red.

Variable	Correlation
White, no high school diploma	0.61
“Americans” Percent reporting ancestry as “American” on the census	0.57
Mobile homes Percent living in a mobile home	0.54
“Old economy” jobs Includes agriculture, construction, manufacturing, trade	0.50
History of voting for segregationists Support for George Wallace (1968)	0.47
Labor participation rate	–0.43
Born in United States	0.43
Evangelical Christians	0.42
History of voting for liberal Republicans Support for John B. Anderson (1980)	–0.42
White Anglo-Saxon Protestants Whites with European non-Catholic ancestry	–0.42"

If it's in the Times, it must be right, but I absolutely cannot believe the negative correlation between WASPS and Trump support, and I'm writing as a WASP myself. I suppose it's possible because I no longer understand statistics, but I still think it unlikely.

The Difference a Quarter Century Makes

I remember a group of us (middle managers from SCS, ASCS, and maybe other agencies) having an after-dinner conversation in roughly 1995.  I expressed some desire for better feedback on directives (I think), and Paul A. said it could be done with the Internet/World Wide Web (I'm not real sure of the dates or the innovation at issue but this is what makes most sense in retrospect.  I had some familiarity with the Internet, having been a Compuserve subscriber for several years and had heard about the web.

Anyhow, today I find these stats at the World Bank:

"Today, 95% of the global population have access to a digital signal, but 5% do not; 73% have mobile phones, but 27% do not; slightly less than half of all people (46%) have internet, but the majority do not; and only 19% of the world’s population has broadband. There also are persistent digital divides across gender, geography, age, and income dimensions within each country."

Congratualtions to FSA and RMA--Expansion of ACRSI

FSA issued its notice on the expansion of ACRSI to all counties.  This means producers can file acreage reports with their insurance provider or FSA.  It's a limited set of crops, though because the major field crops are covered it will handle most crop acreage, It's a goal it's taken 25 years to achieve. ( Since they've done pilot testing, I assume the new expansion will be successful so it's not premature to credit its success.)

I do have some comments, of course:

• I wonder about the experience in the pilots--were most reports filed with FSA or with the company--is there a structural bias to the system?  
• Did the pilot include surveys of producers using it?
• Will the savings of a more efficient system, besides benefiting producers, mean a reduction in funding for FSA operations or government support for insurance company administration?  
• How is the spot-checking of acreage reports affected?  If errors/fraud is discovered, what's the reporting process?

I'm sure there are answers to the questions and other questions I'm missing.  But the bottom line is I congratulate the FSA bureaucrats (and the RMA types) for the achievement.