Bureaucrats Aren't Sexy, Say Tinder Folks

Via Tyler Cowen, the most right-swiped professions for males and females on Tinder don't include any bureaucratic ones. (I could quibble about a few, particularly police officer, military, social media manager, but it's generally true.)

Does 2016 Campaign Make Obama Look Better?

IMHO the answer is "yes".

[Update: I note Gallup says his approval rating now exceeds his disapproval rating.]

The Paperless Office Redux

John Quiggin at Crooked Timber discusses a paper of his that says we've reached peak paper.

I remember in 1984 when the IT guys were trying to build their case for the System/36 in ASCS offices, one of them asked me about the paperless office.  Now we all know my memory is fading as rapidly as my age is increasing, so I don't really remember whether I was asked a leading question about it, and answered with a paean to the possibility that ASCS offices and farmers would get out from under the paperwork burden, or whether I was skeptical.  Most likely I wimped out and answered somewhere in between.

Anyhow, Quiggin thinks it's finally here, and that means the consumption of paper worldwide will increase.  It makes sense to me now: I'm typing on a 23 inch monitor with color and WYSIWYG; in 1984 it would have been a monochrome 14 inch monitor, etc. etc.   He points to the explosion in information (in 1984 it would have been an 8-inch floppy).  He goes on to discuss a parallel with Peak Oil, Peak Coal, and Peak Steel.

U.S. Is Okay

Two observations about the current state of life in the U.S:

• a new book getting rave reviews is a sociologist's study of evictions in Minneapolis  One bit repeated in each of the reviews I've seen: one of the renters who was evicted spent her money, much to the disgust of the author, on a lobster dinner with many trimmings.  Her explanation was something to the effect that "she wanted to".   It's a sign of a great country.
• on the way to the Kennedy Center from Reston we turn off Interstate 66 onto the road which leads to the road which passes by the Watergate on the way to the Kennedy Center.  The road passes under an overpass, which has some homeless people seeking shelter.  Over the years they've moved into real tents.  (The kind with an external frame.)  Progress is being made.

David Plouffe says: "Everything is going to be okay." in his interview with Glenn Thrush at Politico

And see this Fallows piece (referring to a previous post and Warren Buffett) 

[Updated--see Kevin Drum's take.]

Reducing Fraud, Waste and Abuse in Government

One of the ways Presidential candidates propose to finance their promises is through reducing fraud, waste and abuse.

GAO estimates $124.7 billion in improper payment in FY2014 in testimony here. 

The Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that section 281 of the Department of Agriculture Reorganization Act of 1994 precluded the use of recovery auditing techniques>Specifically, the agency reported that section 281 provides that 90 days after the decision of a state, a county, or an area committee is final, no action may be taken to recover the amounts found to have been erroneously disbursed as a result of the decision, unless the participant had reason to believe that the decision was erroneous. This statute is commonly referred to as the Finality Rule, and according to USDA, it affects the Farm Service Agency’s ability to recover overpayments.

In 2013 GAO dinged NRCS and RMA for not checking SSA death files.  Situation hadn't changed by March 2015.

The bulk of the testimony points out problems relative to the SSA death files.

Seems to me Congress could fix many of the problems by changing the laws in several instances: permit SSA to pass on state-provided death data (eliminating the need for separate files), easing the ability to share the data with agencies, forcing state agencies to use the data (in the case of TANF)

Spring and the Garden Calls

Reston's been in the 60's the last two days, so it's time to work in the garden, spreading manure, digging the beds, trying to get peas in timely.

That caused me to google for the White House garden news.  Not a lot.  The latest I found was a June 2015 piece on doing a harvest, segueing to planting a pollinator garden, including for monarch butterflies.  Doubt they'll take credit for the rebound in monarch numbers recently reported.

Cottonseed Yet Again

I've blogged on the issue of making cottonseed an oilseed before.  Here's a good backgrounder by Keith Good on the issue. 

Short summary: bowing to Brazil's victory on cotton programs at the WTO, Congress took cotton out of the other farm programs in the 2014 farm bill.  Didn't touch authority on oilseed designation.

Y2K as Metaphor: International Date Line

From a NYTimes piece reporting on a DOD study raising problems with potential autonomous weaponry, which selects its own targets.

The Center for a New American Security report focuses on a range of unexpected behavior in highly computerized systems like system failures and bugs, as well as unanticipated interactions with the environment.

“On their first deployment to the Pacific, eight F-22 fighter jets experienced a Y2K-like total computer failure when crossing the international date line,” the report states. “All onboard computer systems shut down, and the result was nearly a catastrophic loss of the aircraft. While the existence of the international date line could clearly be anticipated, the interaction of the date line with the software was not identified in testing.”

 I guess the Y2K may work as a metaphor because it refers to a fact which existed and should have been accounted for in system design, but wasn't.  I'd add it to the failure of a Mars mission because of interfacing systems, one of which used metric, and one of which used American.

How the English Were Fooled by Geography

In the Age of Exploration sailors could establish their latitude (ie. how much north or south of the equator they were).  So English sailors knew the latitude of London was 51 degrees north.  Naturally when they first visited what they'd call New England, they figured that since the latitude was 41 degrees, or about 700 miles south of London, the weather should be warmer.  But Bartholomew Gosnold writes his father:

it is the latitude of 41 degrees, and one third part; which albeit it be so much to the southward, yet it is more cold than those parts of Europe, which are situated under the same parallel: but one thing is worth the noting, that notwithstanding the place is not so much subject to cold as England is, yet did we find the spring to be later there, than it is with us here, by almost a month: this whether it happened accidentally this last spring to be so, or whether it be so of course, I am not very certain; the latter seems most likely, whereof also there may be given some sufficient reason, which now I omit; as for the acorns we saw gathered on heaps, they were of the last year, but doubtless their summer continues longer than ours.

 Of course he was wrong--the New England summer is shorter and hotter.  Because the Gulf Stream had not yet been discovered as a thing affecting climate, Gosnold was fooled by geography and logic: similar latitudes should have similar climates.  According to my logic, this ignorance probably meant colonizing expeditions were less well prepared than they would have been if climate had been understood.

How To Comply With All Laws

Finally two professors have published the answer to the problem.