How We Forget: Watts 50 Years Later

The NYtimes had an article on the improvements in Watts 50 years after the riots.

But Watts — once a symbol of urban strife and racial tensions — stands as a stark contrast. There were fewer than a dozen homicides in the neighborhood last year, compared with hundreds in 1965.

There were something like 700 murders for all of California in 1964.  I can't find a breakdown for LA, much less Watts but I'd suspect that the writer of the article didn't do any research, just assumed that the murder rate was high.  Actually the first half of the 60's saw a low murder rate generally, it started to climb in the late 60's.

Messing With Plant Genes: the Fourth Way.

If we're counting, there were three ways for humans to mess with plant genes:

1. the time-honored method of selective breeding, picking the good ones from a crop and reproducing them.  The only way approved of by all.
2. direct genetic manipulation in the laboratory, inserting a gene from one species into the germplasm of another species.  This is called GMO, and it is considered bad by many, particularly in Europe, because it creates "unnatural" combinations of genes.  Many believe people must be given the information that they're eating/using such plants.
3. direct genetic manipulation in the laboratory, using CRISPR to remove genetic material from  germplasm.  Not sure that people have made up their minds about this.

Even before we make up our minds about CRISPR, scientists have come up with another way to mess with genes, using "RNA interference".The appeal is that it offers control over genes without modifying a plant’s genome—that is, without creating a GMO. From the piece:

That means sprays might sidestep much of the controversy around agricultural biotechnology. Or so companies hope. What’s certain is that a way to accomplish the goals of genetic engineering without having to develop a GMO could bring commercial rewards. Sprays might be quickly tailored to do battle with an insect infestation or a new type of virus. Not only could this be faster than creating new GM crops, but the gene-silencing effects of RNA interference last only a few days or weeks. That means you might spray on traits such as drought resistance in times of water shortage without affecting the plant’s performance in times of normal rainfall.

I know I don't understand this but the bottom line to me seems to be that the scientists are advancing faster than society is making rules. It's hard to see how those who object to GMO's (no. 2) could object to this.

[Update: Grist weighs in on RNA interference.  Suggests that Monsanto follow Google and change its name.]

Kevin Williamson Is Wrong: Foreseeing the Future

I'm nitpicking here. He writes at the National Review:

"No one in 1985 knew, or really could have known, what computers would be like ten years down the road, or twenty."

(It's in the context of mocking a NYTimes columnist in 1985 who wrote that laptops were a bad idea, and moving from that  to the idea we can't foresee the future so the market beats government.)

Now I remember old laptops. We had a Zenith laptop at work which we took to a training session.  Actually, it wasn't a computer to put on your lap--it was a portable computer, a luggable.   I also remember something else, something called an electronic calculator.  When I worked at my summer job in the summer of 1959 and later, I used an old handcrank manual adding machine. By the end of the 60's electronic calculators had arrived on the scene, and by the end of the 70's we had programmable calculators.  Innovators in county ASCS offices had started to buy the calculators and program them to compute program payments and loan amounts.  I remember a GAO report urging the agency to establish centralized control over them.

Anyway, no more memories.  My point is that by 1985 we had seen the effects of Moore's law; the capabilities of calculators had exploded and their prices had imploded.  We also had seen the progression from mainframes to minis to micro/PCs.  So anyone with any sense of the history of the past 20 years would have known that computers were going to get smaller and more capable.

And someone, like Al Gore, was on the verge of inventing the Internet, or at least see that an obscure military/academic tool needed to be opened to the public.

Wow--US and Vietnam Have Come a Ways

Given my age and history, this almost brings tears to my eyes:

"Consider that, as Trong [General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communits Party, visiting US] pointed out, the United States — not China — is Vietnam’s largest trading partner. In 2014, that trade amounted to $36 billion. In this context, prospective American foreign military sales (FMS) to Vietnam are merely an expansion of the two countries’ existing trade relationship."

Agriculture in Space

Government Executive reports that the first vegetables grown in space are now being harvested and eaten.  (Some lettuce grown under LED's.)

In the past I've criticized some vertical farming schemes which claimed to rely on sunlight to grow their vegetables.  In the case of the space station, it would seem they'd have 12 hours of sunlight and 12 of darkness, so they shouldn't need LED's.  On the other hand, the sunlight lasts only 90 minutes or so at a time, so maybe they can't rely on the sun.

Some Forecasts Are Accurate: EPA in 1989

Chris Clayton at DTN goes back to  a 1989 EPA "report  to Congress, "The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States,"... a three-year study looking at impacts of climate change 30 to 50 years out", noting several of the accurate forecasts: northern crop shifts, higher soybean yields, algae blooms in the Great Lakes, and adverse impacts on California water.

Early 20th Century North Fenton

Something completely different. The photo is of the Page Brook valley, with the farm on which I grew up in the foreground. It's taken from Richards road, which runs along the side of the hill. As farming in the area has declined (there are no longer cows nor chickens on the farm) and no longer cows on the farm across the valley from us) the trees and brush have come back. The fields all were fenced, though the lines don't stand out in this photo. In my youth the fence lines had mostly grown up with weeds and brush, silently stealing away a bit of cropland over the years.

"Stylized Facts" and Not

Daniel Drezner offers five charts which provide an alternative view of stylized facts:

• the Obama administration has seen ever-increasing government expenditures.
• our manufacturing output continues to decline under Obama 
• Mexican immigration far outstrips immigration from other countries, like China or India
• we're losing our dominant position in the world militarily
• global warming has paused.

It's Who You Know in Politics

Politico has a piece on how to get a job on Capitol Hill.  It begins:

"Start with whomever you know in D.C. If you think hard enough, you probably know someone who lives in D.C. or is connected to it. It could be a former Hill staffer, a lobbyist or a distant relative. No matter who it is, just go see them. Ask them whom they know — you never know who somebody’s next door neighbor is (like a chief of staff on the Hill looking to hire a new staff assistant). In Washington, personal networking, whether a handshake or lunch, still trumps social networking on Facebook and LinkedIn. Follow up on every lead."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/12-steps-to-a-capitol-hill-job-121012.html#ixzz3hyaN7kbj

It's probably all good advice, but I'm bothered by the implications.  The emphasis on networking means the system is biased in favor of the already connected.  Them that has, gets.

The Iranian RINOs

The Republicans have their RINOs (Republicans in name only).  Today's Post made it seem that Iran also has RINOs (Revolutionaries in name only).


Also see this piece on Iranian views of the agreement