Determining Disability: On Silos

I found this blog post at Pro Publica to parallel concerns about using the same acreage reporting process for both FSA and crop insurance.  The logic is the same: Social Security Administration has a process for determining whether someone is disabled; Education has a provision to forgive student loans for those who are disabled; why not piggy back the student loan forgiveness on the SSA process?  Sounds good, but as usual there are good bureaucratic reasons not to, at least according to Education.

I suspect the reality might be that Congress, the public, and the bureaucrats all are envisioning an over-simplified perfect world.  If someone looked at the situation worrying about margins of error and marginal returns on investments, the end result might well have been different.  But that's not how we usually look at things, much to the dismay of economists.

Funniest Sentence, and Truest, of the Day

" If I were President of the United States, my blog posts would read somewhat differently."  That's Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution at the end of a post on Monetary Policy with Excess Capacity (which I didn't devote the neurons to understanding.

Cotton Growers Throw in the Towel on Direct Payments?

Via today's Farm Policy, here's a press release from the National Cotton Council. I read it as conceding the end of direct payments and counter-cyclical payments in favor of this:

The revenue-based crop insurance safety net would be complemented by a modified marketing loan that is adjusted to satisfy the Brazil WTO case.

 Now a question for those working on MIDAS: how do you create software for this? My points, based on sad experience from the past;

• trying to do software in the midst of farm bill consideration and implementation is like trying to have a picnic during a hurricane: management's time and attention is concentrated on adapting to changed circumstances, and there's none left for those working on the project
• even if you can continue working on your project, the odds are great your end-product won't fit the new farm bill.  That's because no one in management (i.e., Congress, the President, or the Secretary) knows what the hell FSA operations will look like in the future.

Surprising Science Fact(?) of the Day

:Some of the scholarly literature suggests that the economic damage resulting from hurricanes is a function of wind speeds raised to the eighth power."

That's from Nathan Silver at the Times blogging about the media coverage of Hurricane Irene. 

On Adapting to the Weather on the Farm

We didn't grow corn in my time on the farm, which was long ago anyway, so his content is mostly a mystery to me, but John Phipps has an interesting post outlining 11 steps he and his son are taking to adapt their operation to changes in weather/climate.  I'm not sure they're not preparing to fight the last war; one of the things I think we know is that weather in the future will be as variable as in the past.  To me that means that adjusting farming operations is likely to pay off over the long haul, but not necessarily the short.   (As a side note, I saw somewhere that one place we got additional acreage from is by doublecropping; apparently in southern Illinois and other places it's now possible to follow wheat with short season corn.)

The 11 steps demonstrate clearly how much knowledge the modern farmer needs.  It's just a continuation of a long long trend, a trend which puts the small farmer and the older farmer at a competitive disadvantage.

The Learning Occupations: Farming

Jennifer Warthan at The Cotton Wife has a too-cute series of photos showing her son <5? imitating his father as he works on farm machinery. 

There are some occupations, farming and storekeeping for two, where the offspring can learn at the knees of their parents.  There must be some life lessons in such learning, I'm not sure what, but there must be.  Of course in the days of the one earner family and the stay at home homemaker, girls learned at the knees of their mothers, but we don't, or I don't at least, grow as sentimental over those life lessons.

On Over Estimating Gardening Interest

Here's an honest gardener at Treehugger: she realizes her eyes were bigger than her willpower, particularly in North Carolina heat.  One of the weaknesses of the locavore movement is this fact; short term enthusiasms erode under the day to day realities of work, drought, insects, flood, mistakes and entropy.

Excessive Incentives

Greg Mankiw links to a video by Jeff Miron, an economics professor at Harvard on 3 myths of capitalism.  His third myth is that capitalism caused the Great Recession: no, no, no--it wasn't capitalists, it was the excessive incentives from government policy. 

Now it seems to me that one argument for the Bush tax cuts, particularly on those with higher incomes, was to provide incentives to entrepreneurs.  So the lesson I take away from Prof. Miron is that we ought to allow them to expire immediately

The Illusion of Asymmetric Insight

The idea of this very long post is that we know we ourselves are full of mysteries, while we know we pretty well understand other people.  Rings true to me.  Apparently the blogger has a book coming out and is using the blog  to stir interest.  He succeeded with me.  An excerpt:

In a political debate you feel like the other side just doesn’t get your point of view, and if they could only see things with your clarity, they would understand and fall naturally in line with what you believe. They must not understand, because if they did they wouldn’t think the things they think. By contrast, you believe you totally get their point of view and you reject it. You see it in all its detail and understand it for what it is – stupid. You don’t need to hear them elaborate. So, each side believes they understand the other side better than the other side understands both their opponents and themselves.

The Bubble in Farmland Prices

Farmgate has an index of Illinois farmland prices here.  Here's the recent figures:

2001 123
2002 126
2003 131
2004 138
2005 173
2006 193
2007 216
2008 245
2009 244
2010 264
2011 307

As a comparison, my neighbors house sold for about $100K in 2000 and about $360K in 2006.  Bottom line: see the title of this post.